Initial jobless claims: it appears that the worst of the winter 2020-21 increase is behind us Let me start off this week’s review of initial jobless claims by pre-debunking something I am sure is going to be said elsewhere: a lack of reporting in Texas did *not* appreciably skew this week’s numbers. Applying the same […]
Coronavirus dashboard for February 23: vaccinations start to have a dramatic effect Totals US deaths, Cases, vaccinated one dose and two doses: – Coronavirus confirmed deaths: 500,310 – Confirmed infections: 28,190,159 – One Dose vaccinations: 44,138,118, and – Two Dose vaccinations: 19,438,495. The good news is, roughly 9.5% of the US population age 18 or […]
Strength in housing and cars, oh my! The two consumer goods which turn down before recessions, and up before recoveries, are houses and motor vehicles, in that order.Since January housing permits and starts came out yesterday, let’s take a look at both. First, while housing starts retreated slightly from their December levels, the more leading […]
You’re reading the right blog: 2021 economy edition “You’re reading the right blog” is an old chestnut (for me anyway) that I used to say from time to time to highlight a correct forecast that your (not so?) humble blogger made well in advance of more widely read sources.Well, please bear with me for one […]
Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row The story this week is the repeated massive upward revisions to last week’s numbers This week, on a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 5,702 to 862,351. Seasonally adjusted claims increased by 13,000 to 861,000 (meaning last week’s original number of 793,000 […]
Blockbuster January retail sales presage gains in jobs (Dan here…late posting) [NOTE: I’ll report separately on industrial production later this morning. Real retail sales is my bellwether for the health of the consumer. And after 3 months of declines, we got a huge upturn in January. Before adjusting for inflation, retail sales jumped 5.3% – […]
Industrial production continues strong growth If real retail sales (reported on in the prior post) is the best proxy for the health of the consumer, Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, is the same for production. And the news there was also very good. Overall production rose 0.9% in December, and the manufacturing component […]
On the effects of COVID vaccination, Israel is the bellwether I’m beginning to see some clickbait reports of COVID diagnoses after two doses of the vaccine, together with breathless reporting by some RW’ers and LW’ers that the vaccines are not very effective. I’m here to tell you to beware of these headlines and reports. For […]
Initial and continued jobless claims: signs that the worst of the pandemic related layoffs may be behind us Some – very relative – good news in unemployment claims this week. It looks like the recent increase in new claims has peaked, while continued claims continue to decline. With new daily infections, still horrible at 100,000/day, […]
Welcome to the vaccination Hunger Games That, dear reader, is a slight variation on what my sibling unit said to me when I related the saga of my attempts to schedule a COVID-19 vaccination. As I have mentioned from time to time, I am an Old Fossil. And, well, the supply shortage of the COVID […]