Labor has gained since the pandemic, but corporations have been sucking up the lion’s share of those gains . . . – by New Deal democrat I neglected to add a link to my Weekly Indicators piece at Seeking Alpha on Saturday, so here it is. Also, I’ve been trying to understand why, with all of the […]
Housing update: sales have bottomed, prices in process – by New Deal democrat No important economic news today. Yesterday existing home sales were released, but their economic impact isn’t all that important, except as it can confirm what has been happening with new houses under construction. And confirmation is what it gave us. First, *sales* […]
Jobless claims: yellow caution flag persists – by New Deal democrat In response to last week’s big jump in new jobless claims to 264,000, I wrote that it might be an outlier vs. the beginning of a rising trend. This morning claims fell back to their previous average range, at 242,000. The 4 week average […]
A Fed nightmare? Housing permits and starts confirm improvement from bottom, multi-unit construction sets new record high – by New Deal democrat Housing construction is perhaps the single most important method by which the Fed seeks to translate its interest rate policy into effects on the economy. To be blunt, the Fed’s sledgehammer attempt via […]
March total business sales strongly suggest that real total sales have entered a downturn – by New Deal democrat Today’s final significant economic report was total business sales for March. This is a nominal figure; the “real” number won’t be updated until personal income and spending is reported for April in two weeks. And here, […]
April industrial production looks great! – until you account for the March revisions – by New Deal democrat The second of this morning’s three significant economic releases was April industrial production, and here the revisions were very important. In April total production increased 0.5% from March, but March itself was revised downward by -0.5%, so […]
Weekly Indicators for May 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was more slow deterioration in the coincident indicators, but interestingly a bounce in several of the short leading indicators, particularly in the weakness of the US$ (which paradoxically is a positive, […]
Real hourly and aggregate wages update; plus further comments on consumer and producer inflation – by New Deal democrat Let’s update some inflation-related information. First of all, real hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased less than 0.1% in April. They are up about 3% from just before the pandemic, and also up a little over 1% […]
Yellow flag from initial jobless claims turns a little more orangey – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 264,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 6,000 to 245,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 12,000 to 1.813 million: Note that both measures of initial claims are at […]
Inflation ex-shelter increasing at 1.0% annualized rate since last June; core inflation with actual house prices only up 3.0% YoY – by New Deal democrat Two months ago, I “officially” took the position that inflation had been conquered, and that, properly measured, the economy had actually been experiencing deflation since last June. With revisions, the […]