Coronavirus update: mid year 2023
Coronavirus update: mid year 2023
– by New Deal democrat
I haven’t done an update on the state of COVID since March or April. As we are halfway through the year, and just past the July 4 holiday get-togethers that sparked summer waves in the past, let’s take a look. Covid isn’t gone, but it is very much in a lull.
Almost all case tracking by governments is gone. But Biobot’s wastewater monitoring, which has been very reliable, continues. And it shows that COVID particles per milliliter in wastewater is down to levels only previously seen in April through mid-July 2021, and March 2022 (the data in 2020 is sparse, so I am discounting that):
There has been an uptick since June 21, but nothing significant yet.
Hospitalizations as of the last week reported, June 28, were just below 6300, or only 900 per day, an all time low:
Similarly, deaths for the week of June 3, the most recent week for which death reports have been fully updated, were just below 630, or only 90 per day, also an all time low:
Although I don’t have a graph right now, the demographics of serious illness and deaths have continued to focus on the most elderly, and the unvaccinated. At this point anyone under age 50 who is fully vaccinated has almost no risk.
The XBB variant and its progeny (including E.U.1.1. and F.E.1.1) continue to account for about 99% of all cases:
There is simply no sign of any new significantly different variant creating any kind of wave.
If we don’t see a significant rise in cases in the next 10 days, then we have successfully had our first July 4 since 2019 with no outbreak.
In summary: COVID isn’t gone, but right now it is pretty somnolent.
Coronavirus dashboard: the first year of COVID endemicity, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat.
“Fully vaccinated” could probably use some explanation as to what that currently means. For example, in the US the emergency is over. Just a couple of months ago my brother-in-law discovered that despite taking Pfizer, whose Comiranty was fully approved in August 2021, his provider was still only providing Pfizer under emergency authorization. He declined. There is no emergency and he had no access to an FDA approved vaccine. What is his status? Basically what is the status of everyone since end of emergency if emergency use vaccines are still what is offered? Has that changed? Is Pfizer now shipping exclusively their approved vax? Is Moderna approved? This does not even address the issue of how many boosters, last booster timing, which feel pretty confusing.
Federal Officials Hatch a Three-Pronged Defense Against Another ‘Tripledemic’
NY Times – July 5
This fall, Americans will be urged to get shots against the flu, Covid and, if they’re older, R.S.V.
To prevent a repeat of last winter’s “tripledemic” of respiratory illnesses, Americans will be encouraged to roll up their sleeves not just for flu shots but for two other vaccines, one of them entirely new.
Federal health officials have already asked manufacturers to produce reformulated Covid vaccines to be distributed later this year. Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention took an additional step, endorsing two new vaccines against respiratory syncytial virus for older Americans.
The three shots — flu, Covid and R.S.V. — may help to reduce hospitalizations and deaths later this year. But there are uncertainties about how the vaccines are best administered, who is most likely to benefit, and what the risks may be. …
Three Vaccines for Fall: What You Need to Know
NY Times – July 5
… What respiratory illnesses are coming our way?
The coronavirus, flu and R.S.V. are all likely to resurge this fall, but exactly when and how much damage they will do are unknown. That’s in part because the restrictions in place during the pandemic altered the seasonal patterns of the viruses. …
R.S.V. is increasingly recognized as a major respiratory threat, particularly to older adults, immunocompromised people and young children. …
Which vaccines should I seek out?
Everyone should have at least the flu and Covid shots this fall, experts said.
The annual flu vaccine is recommended for everyone 6 months and older, but it is most important for adults aged 65 and older, children under 5 and people with weak immune systems. …
R.S.V. is a frequent cause of respiratory illness among older adults, particularly those 75 or older who have other conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, chronic lung disease or diabetes.
The new R.S.V. vaccine is not approved for Americans younger than 60. The C.D.C. recommends that people aged 60 and older sign up for the shot after consulting with their doctors. …
When should I get the vaccines?
No one knows when these viruses will re-emerge, so you should get the shots early enough in the fall to build immunity against the pathogens. Most people will not want or be able to make multiple trips to a clinic or pharmacy to space the shots apart.
That probably means September or October. Most Americans may want to consider receiving the flu and Covid shots at the same time, so they are prepared to face either virus. Older adults who are in poor health — who have heart or lung disease, for example, or are on home oxygen — should get all three shots, some experts said. …
Adults 50 and older should also get the vaccine for shingles, if they haven’t already, and those 65 and older should sign up for the pneumococcal vaccine. But those vaccines don’t need to be given in the fall and should be scheduled for a different time …
Is it safe to get these vaccines at once?
The flu and Covid shots were often given together last fall and seemed to work well. Because the R.S.V. vaccine is new, however, there is little information on how it might interact with the other two vaccines. …
Some research suggests that the R.S.V. and flu vaccines produce lower levels of antibodies when given together than when delivered one at a time. But those levels are probably still high enough to protect people from the viruses, experts said.
There is also limited data on the safety of the two R.S.V. vaccines. Clinical trials recorded six cases of neurological problems, including Guillain-Barré syndrome, compared with none in the placebo groups.
But the numbers were too small to determine whether the cases were a result of the inoculations. More clarity will come from surveillance while the vaccines are administered on a large scale, Dr. Chu said.
The C.D.C. is expected to make recommendations on administration of the vaccines together in the coming weeks.
Isn’t Joel (forget last name) very knowledgeable in vaccine topics? If he has some insight as to why Pfizer’s Comirnaty was fully approved in August 2021 but as late as April 2023 my BIL was only offered it under EUA terms? I just read the August 23, 2021 FDA approval letter and my BIL clearly fits the full approval age of 16+. Approved manufacturing sites are USA (2) and Belgium (1). This part is a bit confusing as the letter distinguishes between manufacturing the vaccine and manufacturing the “final formulated product”. In any case there is a USA site for both these steps. How is in spring 2023 the Pfizer vaccine is being offered on EUA basis? As I understand it EUA greatly limits manufacturer’s potential product liability plus has much reduced adverse effects disclosure requirements. At first I thought it was simply a clinic not having the right understanding.
@Eric,
I know a bit about vaccines, more about SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. But I’m not following the FDA approval process. Quick google suggests Comirnaty is still offered under EUA, but you know that.
Joel:
Glad we have you on board at Angry Bear.
from my weekend newsletter:
and speaking of hot weather…we’re now setting global heat records daily, after the warmest June on record…
at the current rate, we’ll blow past the planet’s tipping point by August…
RJS:
110+ in Phoenix, AZ. Forecast 118 later next week. The house is well insulated, with DC powered ceiling fans, and solar screens on windows. It doesn’t have to be cold, just cool in the house.
from my newsletter yesterday morning:
the CDC reported that the trend in hospital admissions for Covid was down 0.8% week over the past week, while the trend in the percentage of Covid deaths was down 20%…however, Biobot data now shows that concentrations of the virus are clearly rising nationally, with some regional (and undoubtedly local) differences…the national concentration of the Covid virus rose to 249 copies per mL of sewage in the week to July 12th; that was up from 220 copies per mL of sewage in the week to July 5th, 198 virus copies per mL of sewage in the week to June 28th, and 165 copies per mL in the week ending June 21st, so as we can see, it’s been rising more than 10% each week…it’s difficult to pull regional totals off their small interactive pastel colored graph, but it appears that virus concentrations are rising everywhere, even as the Midwest concentrations started with lower concentrations (98 per mL) than elsewhere…as of July 12th, concentrations in the Midwest are at 146 per mL, concentrations in the Northeast are at 264 per mL, concentrations in the South are at 269 per mL, and concentrations in the West are at 262 per mL…Biobot also has a graphic for variant proportions, albeit with less differentiation than the CDC; they’re just showing three main variants…as of June 28th (the latest variant data), XBB was at 55.8% of the copies sequenced and falling, while XBB.1.9 was at 24.7% and XBB.1.16 was at 18.2%, with the later two rising…i assume XBB.1.5, the variant the new vaccines will target, is being aggregated with the XBB totals in the Biobot data…Biobot has a link to concentrations by county at the bottom of their landing page, should anyone want to pursue more details…