Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative

Q4 2022 GDP positive, but both long leading components continue negative  – by New Deal democrat Here’s my last note for this morning. Real Q4 GDP came in at +0.7%, or +2.8% annualized. While this is lower than most quarters in the past several years, as shown below: Although not shown (due to the huge […]

Durable goods orders come in mixed; only employment indicators are short term positives for the economy

Durable goods orders come in mixed; leaving only employment indicators as short term positives for the economy  – by New Deal democrat Manufacturers’ durable goods orders, and in particular “core” orders, which exclude defense and transportation (a/k/a Boeing), are (albeit noisy) a short leading indicator. I normally don’t pay too much attention to them because […]

2023 ACA Open Enrollment Period is the best ever

The 2023 ACA Open Enrollment Period is the best ever. The prime reason being the expansion of enhanced premium subsidies, first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan. ACA premiums became less costly for those who were already qualified. The lower pricing of ACA plans resulted in the expansion of eligibility to millions who were […]

Arizona’s Worst and Best of Times

“Arizona: It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times“, Substack, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar I ran across this substack a few weeks ago. The majestic and excellent basketball player I had watched play a wicked game of ball, can also write good articles. Since I now live in Arizona where the politics differ […]

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative

Three most quickly reported measures of coincident indicators – all of which are close to turning negative  – by New Deal democrat While we await tomorrow morning’s deluge of Almost Every Economic Series Imaginable, I have posted over at Seeking Alpha a detailed look at one measure of consumer spending and two of employment which will give […]

Interesting Stuff from my In-Box, January 25, 2023

It has taken a bit of time after Christmas to get back into the swing of things. A week during Christmas while in Breckenridge, I spent it in bed due to Attitude Altitude sickness. One night I was looking at the vertical wood slats on the wall which appeared to be populated with numbers similar […]

Jury Findings for the January 6 Insurrectionists

I am waiting to see what the courts dish out for the insurrectionists who thought it was kind-of-“kool” to attack the Senate and House while in session certifying the 2020 presidential election vote. The insurrectionist sitting at Nancy Pelosi’s desk was sentenced last week. He claimed he was looking for a bathroom. So far, I […]

How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation

How “FHFA-CPI” using house prices rather than OER shows a sharp deceleration in inflation  – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman made another foray into the “inflation is mostly gone” genre over the weekend with a thread on Mastodon that largely relied on the following graph: concluding that “[A]t this point the burden of proof lies on […]

Changing the Student Loan System

Recently, The American Prospect‘s David Dayen’s introduced us to a new student loan system. A new program implemented for income driven based repayments (IDR). It requires lesser payback amounts and shorter a time period than the of 25 years to pay back. Unfortunately, a person would still be in their mid-forties if everything works out […]

New Deal democrat’s weekly indicators for January 16 – 20

Weekly Indicators for January 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this yesterday, so here you go today . . .  My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Every now and then you get a contratrend week, when a bunch of metrics move in the opposite direction […]