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Coronavirus dashboard for March 27: (unsurprisingly) voluntary distancing appears to be failing

Coronavirus dashboard for March 27: (unsurprisingly) voluntary distancing appears to be failing

Here is the update through yesterday (March 26)

In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing).

At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below.

As of now, just over 50% of the population is under total or business lockdown, and the rate of increase in new infections decelerated significantly – but is still growing at near 25%/day. The amount of testing continues to increase, but still is falling far short of what is necessary for a successful regimen.

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)

• Number: up +16,815 to 86,012 (vs. +16,815 on March 26)

• ***Rate of increase: day/day: 24% (vs. 34.6% baseline and vs. 25% on March 26)

I am using Jim Bianco’s excellent exponential projection of 34.5% growth from March 10 as my baseline. It appears that “social distancing” strategies as well as State-mandated partial and total lockdowns may have begun to put a dent in this, as yesterday’s +25% and Tuesday’s+19% have been 2 of the 3 lowest rates of increase in the past two+ weeks. At the same time, it remains an exponential growth rate.

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Panama Redux

The latest U.S. arrogance: Charging Venezuelan Maduro with Narco-Terrorism. The U.S. answers to no international court, but believes it has the privilege levying charges against anyone or any state it wishes to over-throw. Of course the charges are all about oil. What else is new? Meanwhile, the U.S. sanctions whomever it pleases.

Meanwhile, Dick Cheney runs free as a bird, as does warmonger Hillary, and Obama and his almost senile sidekick Biden. Of course, who could possibly ignore the narcissistic monster now the POTUS of a broken and corrupt U.S?

Like it or not: The U.S. and its allies are no longer the shining light on the hill.
Greed and profit know no limits.

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Yes, someone in the Media finally says it…It’s the REPUBLICANS!

 

I have been wondering for a while, when would the media start pointing out that it’s no longer Trump. It is the Republican party. Well, finally.

She asked THE question that needed to be asked: How Long are we going to let him go?  Not that his party would hear her.  Even Joe is cringing at hearing it.  Too Bad Joe!

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Congress and the Fed Could Ensure Universal Protection During the Pandemic

Congress and the Fed Could Ensure Universal Protection During the Pandemic

No matter how well or poorly the federal government addresses the overall economic crisis, millions of vulnerable people will be left unprotected.  Homeless people, incarcerated people, immigrants, people in fringe, off-the-books employment like day labor—unless steps are taken that specifically target them, they are staring into the abyss.

This is fundamentally a local problem.  States, counties and cities know where the needs are.  They have existing ties through social service agencies and their connections to nonprofits.  This is where the expertise lies, but their budgets, lean in good times, are in free-fall right now.

The solution is straightforward.  Congress should authorize the Federal Reserve to purchase specially designated state and municipal bonds floated for the specific purpose of serving the health, housing, food and other essential needs of vulnerable populations.  There should be no limit to the amount that can be borrowed.  And the Fed should purchase these bonds with the intention  of retiring them.  Effectively, the Fed would be using its money-creating power to finance social protection at the local level.

This facility can be created immediately, with auditing to follow when practicable.  There should be no delay in meeting the urgent human needs that will otherwise go unaddressed by more conventional policies.

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Patent Protection vs Orphan Drug Market Exclusivity

Massive Scandal or a Massive Misunderstanding of Regs and Laws for Orphan Drugs

Most of you know, I have been writing on healthcare for a long time and much of it has been negative about healthcare and the costs. I am not defending Gilead’s marketing of Remdesivir; but, a few articles (Common Dreams, The Intercept, etc.) written and the pundits amongst us appear to have misunderstood the issue for Remdesivir’s status.

I can understand why people would become excited and upset with the actions by the FDA to “designate” Remdesivir an orphan drug “candidate (note the quote notation).” In the past, I have found myself to be distracted by headlines (Intercept) which lead me to believe something bad was to come about only to find out it was not as serious as described in the headlined article. With all the issues we are faced with from COVID 19, the half attempt to mandate a lockdown of us in our homes, people “still” clustering, and our government led by a jackass; it is easy to get agitated.

Some thoughts; Given the pandemic, COVID 19 appears to be the exact opposite of a rare disease and describing a new drug for it as an orphan-drug does sound absurd.

A Little History

The seventies found incentives for profit-making drug companies not aligning with the needs of people having rare diseases. Drug Development of new drugs was expensive even 40 years ago. Companies concentrated on needed new therapies and pharmaceuticals potentially having high customer demand yielding increased profits rather than focusing  on those therapies and pharmaceuticals needed by a handful of patients. In 1983, the Orphan Drug Act was passed to encourage R&D for these drugs.

The FDA was given the power to grant a drug “orphan” status and to compounds without patent protection. If a company got its product “approved” as an orphan drug, it gained a period of market exclusivity of seven years. No one else was allowed to sell the same product to treat that specific disease. Additionally, the costs associated with developing that orphan drug including payroll for scientists, and miscellaneous costs were subject to a tax credit. Under the Orphan Drug Act, more than 800 orphan drugs and biologics have been approved by the FDA out of more than 5,300 applications. The Whys and Whats after the leap   .   .   .

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AFL-CIO has a Plan

AFL-CIO has a Plan

From the AFL-CIO website:

PRIORITIES OF THE LABOR MOVEMENT TO ADDRESS THE CORONAVIRUS:

PROTECT FRONT-LINE WORKERS
  • Streamline approaches for allocating and distributing personal protective equipment to working people in greatest need.
  • Issue a workplace safety standard to protect front-line workers and other at-risk workers from infectious diseases.
  • Provide workplace controls, protocols, training and personal protective equipment.
  • Provide clear, protective federal guidance for different groups of workers with different needs.
  • Increase funding for the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and Mine Safety and Health Administration for additional inspectors and health specialists, and for developing and implementing an infectious disease standard.
MITIGATE THE BROADER PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS

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Meanwhile, another DOJ move from Barr

Meanwhile while we are pre-occupied with corvid-19 comes this news from  Rolling Stone:

The Trump Department of Justice has asked Congress to craft legislation allowing chief judges to indefinitely hold people without trial and suspend other constitutionally-protected rights during coronavirus and other emergencies, according to a report by Politico’s Betsy Woodruff Swan.

The DOJ has requested Congress allow any chief judge of a district court to pause court proceedings “whenever the district court is fully or partially closed by virtue of any natural disaster, civil disobedience, or other emergency situation,” according to draft language obtained by Politico. This would be applicable to “any statutes or rules of procedure otherwise affecting pre-arrest, post-arrest, pre-trial, trial, and post-trial procedures in criminal and juvenile proceedings and all civil processes and proceedings.” They justify this by saying currently judges can pause judicial proceedings in an emergency but that new legislation would allow them to apply it “in a consistent manner.”

Norman L. Reimer, executive director of the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, told Politico the measure was “terrifying,” saying, “Not only would it be a violation of [habeas corpus], but it says ‘affecting pre-arrest.’ So that means you could be arrested and never brought before a judge until they decide that the emergency or the civil disobedience is over. I find it absolutely terrifying. Especially in a time of emergency, we should be very careful about granting new powers to the government.”

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For a Universal Debt and Rental Moratorium

For a Universal Debt and Rental Moratorium

Incomes are collapsing throughout the economy, and both businesses and individuals face a crisis in meeting fixed payments they can’t control.  The most direct step we can take is to temporarily suspend these payment obligations.

Suppose the government were to announce that, starting immediately, all stipulated debt and real estate rental payments were to be suspended for all borrowers and renters.  This moratorium could have an ending date of, say, two months in the future, with the option of extending it if circumstances require.  No interest would accrue to any of these obligations; in effect, we would be stopping the clock on them for a period of time.

Of course, if nothing else were done this would shut down the credit and rental systems completely for the duration of the moratorium, so a stipulation would have to be added that it applies only to debt or rental obligations established at the time of the announcement.  We’d all have to keep two sets of books, one for pre-announcement loans and rentals, the other for post.

International obligations are somewhat more complicated, but the economic heft of the US is great enough that these conditions could probably be imposed unilaterally on foreign counterparties, especially if the logic of this step persuaded other countries to adopt a similar course of action.

A debt moratorium would dampen some channels of financial instability and provide greater security for most participants in the economy.  By itself, however, it would not address the gaping hole in the real economy caused by shutting down whole sectors of goods and services production.  That requires other forms of stimulus.

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A Rehash, Stimuli Considered, And ACA Healthcare Insurance Assistance

I am sure by now many of you have read what the gov is and is not doing for us. The later is more prevalent as can be witnessed in the stimuli being offered. I am going to ask you to pay attention to the last item on ACA Healthcare Insurance. Whether you qualified or not in the past, you may be eligible for assistance now. I have broken this out into 4-points of which many of us might find ourselves. If you questions, PLEASE ASK, I will try to answer.

The Rundown

Goldman Sachs projects that after a 30% spike in jobless claims last week, to 281,000, new claims will hit 2.25 million this week — an unprecedented surge.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Republican senators Tuesday morning that without action the coronavirus pandemic could drive up US unemployment to 20%, a Republican Senate source told CNN.

Mnuchin’s comments came as he urged Republican senators to act on economic stimulus measures totaling $1 trillion designed to avert that kind of worst case scenario. A 20% unemployment rate would be double the unemployment rate during the Great Recession, the highest in the US since the Great Depression, and it would leave more than 32 million Americans out of a job based on the current US labor force.

During the Great Recession of 2008 to 2009, approximately 9 million people lost their jobs. Losses this time around could far exceed that total if economic stimulus is not enacted.

I am not sure if it can get any worst than this; potentially lose your life, lose kin, lose your job, lose your healthcare, or lose whatever resource you might have.

Senate Republican Stimulus for People

– a direct payment to qualified Americans of up to $1,200. Married couples could get $2,400. Taxpayers who earn more than $75,000 annually will begin to see that payment reduced by $5 for every $100 they earn over the $75,000 threshold, with those who make more than $99,000 getting nothing. Families with children would get $500 per child.

While a Treasury Department outline circulated earlier in the week had called for two payments from the IRS — one each in April and May — the Senate GOP proposal only calls for one check at this time.

– The poorest families, those with no federal income tax liability, would see smaller benefits, though the minimum would be set at $600. About 22 million people earning under $40,000 a year would see no benefit under the GOP plan, according to an initial analysis by Ernie Tedeschi, a former Obama administration economist.

Business is the big winner under the Republican Senate Plan. I am waiting for a cohesive Democratic plan. Perhaps, I missed it?

ACA Healthcare Insurance

There are some things which will help people who lose their jobs and subsequently healthcare. Andrew Sprung at xpostfactoid also writes at Health Insurance Org. Today he wrote about “Uninsured in a pandemic? Seek help – it’s likely available.”

1. If you lose your job – and your employer-sponsored health insurance with it – you become eligible for a special enrollment period in the ACA marketplace. You can apply through HealthCare.gov if you’re in one of the 38 states that use the federal website. Twelve states and Washington D.C. run their own ACA exchanges. You can access those sites from this list. You can also get assistance from a licensed broker through this site.

2. If your estimated income for the year – including expected unemployment insurance – is below 400% of the federal poverty level ($49,960 for an individual, $67,640 for a couple, $103,000 for a family of four), you probably qualify for advanced premium tax credits – aka premium subsidies – a federal subsidy that picks up much or most of the monthly premium for plans offered on the exchange.

3. In the 36 states (and the District of Columbia) that have implemented the ACA Medicaid expansion, you should qualify for Medicaid if you lose your job – or you’re a freelancer who loses much of your income – and your monthly income going forward is below 138% of the federal poverty level ($1,468 for an individual, $3,013 for a family of four*). Apply through your state Medicaid office or website.

4. Important note for those whose income falls abruptly, e.g., to zero: While the ACA marketplace (HealthCare.gov for 38 states, state-based exchanges in 12 states and D.C.) calculates subsidy eligibility and Medicaid eligibility on the basis of yearly income, State Medicaid departments determine Medicaid eligibility on the basis of monthly income. Accordingly, if your earnings before layoff or loss of work were substantial, and your income going forward is zero or below the Medicaid threshold, you should apply for Medicaid through a state office or website, not through the ACA marketplace.

The main provider for healthcare insurance may be Medicaid. Pre-Medicaid expansion, rule of thumb was about 1 million Medicaid enrollment increase for every 1 point increase in unemployment rate. More than likely higher with many more parents and other adults potentially eligible in expansion states (Prof. Edwin Park, Georgetown).

Hopefully, the better souls and minds prevail in determining what stimuli is used to assist people. If you need some assistance in finding information, please ask and I will assist.

Sources of Information which will lead to other place:

Uninsured in a pandemic? Seek help – it’s likely available,” Health Insurance Org., Andrew Sprung, March 20, 2020

The ACA as recession insurance, revisited,” Xpostfactoid Blog, Andrew Sprung, March 20, 2020

CR’s Guide to the Coronavirus freebie informan

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