Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Weekly Indicators for April 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha

 – by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for April 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The big call I made last year is that conditions were setting up for a Boom this year, once the pandemic started to be overcome. Well, almost half of all Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine, and all the signs are that the Boom is well and truly upon us.

So the nowcast and short term forecast is all about chronicling the Boom, while the long term forecast is about what happens as the Boom begins to fade.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment about the economy, while rewarding me just a little bit for my efforts.

Weekly Indicators for April 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for April 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The big news continues to be a bifurcation between the currently unfolding Boom, fueled by the fire hose of monetary and fiscal stimulus, and the fallout in the long leading forecast based on the increase in interest rates as a result.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economic data, and reward me with a penny or two for my efforts.

Weekly Indicators for March 29 – April 2 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for March 29 – April 2 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

One fairly unique service I think I provide is not just forecasting the next few months, but into the next year as well. So in the second half of last year I was writing about how all of the indicators were lining up for strong growth in 2021 if the pandemic could be brought under control.

Now I am beginning to look at 2022, and what I see are increasing signs of jumps in the prices of important middle class commodities and assets, mainly houses and gasoline. Which means, we could see the old-fashioned type of end of an economic boom.

As usual, clicking over and reading will not just bring you right up to the moment in the nowcast and the forecasts, but also reward me a little for bringing that information to you.

The Need for a Global Corporate Tax Regime

by Joseph Joyce

The Need for a Global Corporate Tax Regime

When the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began its call for a reform of the rules of global taxes in order to clamp down on the avoidance of taxes by multinational corporations, its efforts looked quixotic. But the OECD persisted, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is now participating in negotiations with the other OECD members to reform the (non-)system. While there is much left to negotiate, the broad framework of an agreement to establish a new regime, which governs where taxes are assessed and the determination of a global minimum tax, now exists.

A new volume edited by IMF economists Ruud A. de Mooij, Alexander D. Klemm and Victoria J. Perry, Corporate Income Taxes under Pressure : Why Reform Is Needed and How It Could Be Designed, presents the case for implementing a global approach. The first part of the volume describes the reasons for taxing corporate profits, explains the emergence of the rules governing how multinationals could be treated, and shows the complications that the growth in services and digital trade placed on an already fragile system. The second section examines the workings of the current system, including the difference between source-based and residence-based taxes, the use of bilateral tax treaties to allocate taxing rights, and the ability of corporations to use the differences amongst tax regimes to lower their liabilities by shifting the source of their profits to low-tax jurisdictions. The third section analyzes the relative merits of various reform proposals.

Housing and the economy, now and in 2022 – recession caution?

by New Deal democrat

Housing and the economy, now and in 2022 – recession caution?

My long-form review and forecast of the housing market and its potential effect on the 2022 economy is up at Seeking Alpha.

If the market stays like 2014 when interest rates went up, no biggie. But if it’s more like the 1950s, we have a problem.

As usual, clicking over and reading should be informative for you, and it rewards me a little bit for my efforts.