Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Megadrought coming to US west?

And if it continues to be this dry, it could become the most severe megadrought on this entire chart.

“The only reason this drought is lagging behind that 1500s drought is because it’s so young,” Williams said.

Via The Guardian comes this article on the current heatwave in the US…personally I have stories ranging from ducks not reproducing because of the heat and drought in Montana to severe water use restrictions in San Jose…

What tree rings reveal about America’s megadrought

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2021/jun/17/tree-rings-america-megadrought-visual

Also see this NYT link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/11/climate/california-western-drought-map.html

Measures of Global Income

by Joseph Joyce

Measures of Global Income

The difference between the income generated by the domestic production of goods and services and the income received by the residents of a country is the basis of the distinction between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI). The latter measure includes net foreign-sourced income, the income domestic residents receive from foreign sources for providing productive resources (such as labor) minus the income paid to foreign residents in exchange for their productive resources. Net foreign income is also called “net primary income,” and is a component of the current account of the balance of payments. However, GNI and net primary income exclude one form of income from the foreign sector that has become increasingly important: personal transfers, also called remittances.

The two measures do include the wages paid by foreign firms to domestic workers who travel across borders to their place of employment. But the determination of who is a “domestic worker” depends on residency, not citizenship, and residency can be an ambiguous concept. The IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual formulated a criterion for establishing it:

“A household is resident in the economic territory in which household members maintain or intend to maintain a dwelling or succession of dwellings treated and used by members of the household as their principal dwelling. Being present for one year of more in a territory or intending to do so is sufficient to qualify as having a principal dwelling there.”

Weekly Indicators for June 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha

 – by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for June 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha

Despite the spike in consumer prices in May, the long term interest rates in mortgages declined, largely taking back the increase occurring earlier this year. Reporting on the overall Economic picture, a resource-constrained Economy. YoY comparisons are slowly becoming more useful. 

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the moment, and bring me a penny or two for my efforts.

Weekly Indicators for May 31 – June 4 at Seeking Alpha

 – by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for May 31 – June 4 at Seeking Alpha

My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.

On the one hand, it’s amazing just how positive the indicators are almost across the board – including long term Treasuries getting relaxed about the inflation scare.

On the other hand, the surge in commodity prices looks like it’s about to bite corporate profits in the rear quadrant.

Also, I’ve tried out a new summary spreadsheet format which should make the concluding information easier to read.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy and the forecast. And it will reward me with my lunch money for next week.