In economics we have the concept of “revealed preference” that simply states that you do not pay attention to what an individual claims to prefer. Rather, you pay attention to what they actually do. President Trump just elected to go to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for treatment of his COVID-19 symptoms. He could […]
In the second quarter, the federal deficit leaped from under 5% of GDP last year to near 15% now. This is new record compared to the prior record of almost 10% of GDP that Obama inherited from Bush Yes, falling nominal GDP played a role, but a weak economy always plays a role in setting […]
Because of what Trump is doing to the post office postal shipments are being delayed. If you use mail order services to take care of your prescriptions you should order your refills as soon as you can to keep from running out of your drugs. I just had to have my doctor write a new […]
For once Trump is right to claim that he has set a new record as the federal deficit is now over 10% of GDP. It is now 10.7% of GDP as compared to the prior record of 10.2% that Obama inherited from Bush. The deficit is looking more and more like what happened in Japan. […]
After the recent market rebound the S&P 500 valuation has risen from below my estimated fair value to just over the top of the fair value band. It is important to remember that much of the rebound in the S&P PE is due to weaker earnings. In the second quarter earnings are falling at double […]
The 2.5 million employment gain does not look too impressive from this perspective.
I have been monitoring the close relationship between bond yields and monetary velocity ( personal income/zero maturity money) for years without coming to strong conclusion about what to make of it. In particular, it displays the long term secular rise and fall of bond yields before and after 1980.. I do not know of […]
National Geographic published this. This seems to be an unusual topic for that publication and I wonder why Fauci selected it. Fauci: No scientific evidence the coronavirus was made in a Chinese lab The rest is copied exactly from National Geographic Fauci, the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, shot […]
It looks like many states are preparing to end stay at home quarantine. If you look at the numerous charts around on the number of new coronavirus-19 cases reported each day it looks encouraging. They show a peaking and a very slow decline or at best a plateau. However, this plateau is the product of […]
It should be worth noting that the federal deficit under Trump is already at 5% of GDP even before the Coronavirus stimulus begins. Figure 1 Interestingly, if you look at the long term record the only policy or strategy that fits the data is the Republican policy of starve the beast. That policy is to […]