if long-term interest rate r is less than the trend growth rate of GDP g Yesterday (technically very early today) I promised a post on why long-term Treasury interest rates are very important. In particular it is very important if the long-term interest rate r is less than the trend growth rate of GDP g. […]

Why have they increased so much. The US Treasury constant maturity 10-year interest rate has increased dramatically since the FED started fighting inflation (after falling dramatically during the Covid 19 epidemic). The increase is not unusual — Monetary policy effects GDP and employment through medium and long term interest rates, especially including the interest rate […]

I think the title makes it clear that this will be a rambling confused post. I am typing on with the thought that something is better than nothing and no one has to read this. The first topic – house prices, is in fact one that interests me a lot. I have a regression which […]

“The Fed Makes a Large Rate Cut and Forecasts More to Come” Jeanna Smialak Writes “The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday by half a percentage point, an unusually large move and a clear signal that central bankers think they are winning their war against inflation and are turning their attention to protecting the […]

I just heard an advertisement for Kamala Harris in which she said she would raise taxes on the rich and cut taxes for the middle class. I was pleased. I note the empirical fact that, in years when the income tax is constitutional yet the top marginal tax rate is below 69%, nonincumbent Democrats are […]

IN 2020 the US homicide rate increased by 29% the largest percent increase on record. There are different theories of the cause. Some are related to Covid 19 with isolation (not lockdowns there were not lockdowns in the USA) causing increased stress and domestic disputes. The George Floyd associated conflict between police and those they […]

I have thoughts on a typically interesting essay by Brad DeLong. It was sent to project syndicate and also my e-mail inbox. I think I should not quote it at length without paying. His claim is that, whether or not one likes industrial policy, we need it now. Given the 700-word limit, he doesn’t discuss […]

I think the imp is my most noticed contribution to the economic discussion. Brad DeLong mentioned the fact that I mentioned him, but called him the inflation expectations imp . Then Paul Krugman mentioned him shortening the name to “the expectations imp”. Alot of time has passed since then during the slow recovery from the […]

and of a 3% inflation target? There is some risk of recession in the USA because the FED insists on driving inflation down to 2%.  Oddly back in the naughts when inflation was persistently below the 2% target, there was more discussion of raising the target. Then IMF chief economist discussed it. Paul Krugman advocated […]

The Phillips curve plays a central role in the policy debate (this is partly due to the fact that debaters have finally learned to ignore very highly theoretical and unrealistic DSGE models).  Just to review, the Phillips curve should show a negative relationship between unemployment and actual inflation minus expected inflation (it has been defined this way since […]