On Wednesday we got some excellent new residential construction numbers. I went into a lot more detail, showing how – exactly as I forecast – the turn in interest rates led the turn in housing sales by about six months, over at Seeking Alpha.
As usual, clicking over and reading helps reward me with a penny or two for my efforts.
While I am at it, on the subject of housing, here is a chart I am working on (not completed yet!) for another post, showing the maximum percentage decline in total and single family housing permits from expansion peak until the onset of recession, ever since reports started in the early 1960s, plus the decline from peak between the beginning of 2018 to the present:
| Recession onset | Total housing Permits |
1 unit housing Permits |
—— | — |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1969 | -22.7% | -20.7% | ——— | |
| 11/1973 | -42.0 | -40.1 | ||
| 6/1980 | -36.8 | -43.7 | ||
| 7/1981 | -37.4 | -38.4 | ||
| 7/1990 | -44.3 | -35.1 | ||
| 3/2001 | -11.5 | -12.5 | ||
| 12/2007 | -49.2 | -58.7 | ||
| 2018-19 | -12.4 | -11.9 | ||
Note that in all cases but two (1969 and 2001), the declines were in excess of 30%. The recent decline, at roughly 12%, is almost identical to the decline prior to the 2001 recession. Why the 2001 recession happened despite the relatively small decline is important (and a subject of that other post to come!).
