Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The bottoming process in existing home sales continues, as YoY price comparisons increase

The bottoming process in existing home sales continues, as YoY price comparisons increase  – by New Deal democrat The bifurcation of the housing market between new and existing home components continues, as existing home sales continue near their bottom, but with a little improvement. Specifically, in January sales increased 120,000 on an annualized basis from an […]

The good news on jobless claims continues

The good news on jobless claims continues  – by New Deal democrat The good news on jobless claims continued this week, as initial claims declined -12,000 to 201,000. The four-week moving average also declined, by -3,500 to 215,250. Continuing claims, with the usual one-week delay, declined -27,000 to 1.862 million: Needless to say, this also helped […]

Perceptions of inflation vs. wage growth: why the divergence?

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2024 Perceptions of inflation vs. wage growth: why the divergence?  – by New Deal democrat My recent travels included visits to cousins and their children on both sides of my family. Without any prompting from me, inevitably the table talk turned to the state of the economy. Rather than Bigfoot the opinions […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for February 12-16 2024

Weekly Indicators for February 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I am back from my travels, so it’s time to catch up. There’s no significant economic news until tomorrow, but in the meantime I neglected to link to my weekly high frequency indicator wrap-up, which was posted at Seeking Alpha. As usual, […]

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness

Retail sales faceplant; industrial production continues 16-month streak of weakness – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at two the big short leading and coincident indicators that were reported yesterday, respectively real retail sales and inducatrial production. Retail sales can be volatile monthly, and about once in a typical year they either faceplant or […]

Housing construction essentially stable in January

Housing construction essentially stable in January  – by New Deal democrat I’m on the road, so I need to keep this brief, but fortunately I can give you the essence of this most important housing report with little difficulty. Mortgage rates have declined about 1% from their peak during the autumn, and are about equal to […]

Initial jobless claims remain positive

Initial claims remain positive  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the typical one-week lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week […]

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing  – by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy (mainly gasoline), which peaked in June 2022 and roughed in June 2023, and housing, which peaked […]

Aggregate payrolls vs. total withholding taxes paid: which one has been telling the truer tale?

Aggregate payrolls vs. total withholding taxes paid: which one has been telling the truer tale?  – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data continues for today. So I wanted to take a further look at the two measures of total payrolls I discussed on Friday, one of which has been of some concern. […]