– by New Deal democrat To start with the usual: new home sales are very volatile and heavily revised, which is why I pay more attention to single family permits. But they are the most leading of all the housing data; and averaged over three months, much of the noise goes away. In May, new […]
– by New Deal democrat Well, I was working on one nerdy long-term historical post this morning, when I decided to check the weekly update on consumer spending from Redbook. And, as you’ll see below, that was the end of that! (I may yet follow up this afternoon. We’ll see.) Last week, Redbook consumer spending was […]
– by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how I have been rethinking the long leading indicators — those that are useful for forecasting the economy 12-24 months out — because while when they are positive, the economy has been as well, but when they have been negative (twice) in the past 15 years, […]
This commentary shows several supporting links to it. Not a mistake, just different data. A look at Immigration to the United States. I have no problem saying much of the reasoning for a decline is the result of a presidential policy of forced deportation of immigrants. I am going to guess the people leaving consist […]
AB: Unless you were very fortunate, you probably rented an apartment, house, or some place in which to live. Even when we started out, rent took a sizeable amount of “our” income near Chicago. Jan being a paralegal and I finishing up college certainly solved the issue over time. Even then an early on, we […]
Weekly Indicators: Points Of Weakness – Just Static? There was another air pocket this week in withholding tax payments, and some weakening in mortgage applications, but the overall tone remains positive, despite the ongoing international chaos emanating from Washington. Once again there was little change this week, and all time frames remained positive. As usual, […]
Supposedly a $300 billion contribution gift is being made to Iran. It is coming from somewhere just like the tax breaks.. Supposedly it is not coming from the United States. Given the past experiences with Trump, it is hard to not believe this is coming from US Taxpayers. What if US taxpayers footing the bill. […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing about the economy, and employing forecasting models, for over 20 years. For the entire duration of the period, there have been portents of DOOOM written about by many others. I have been much more cautious, going on “Recession Watch” only twice since 2008: in 2019 and late 2022. […]
Not that this is any surprise. Employers have always been looking for way to downsize Labor input in products. Whether it is through automation, better throughput due to factory upgrades, or going overseas. A I have pointed out previously, upgrading equipment (nc to cnc) can have a big input to reducing costs. Improve factory layout […]