Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims: seasonality returns, but remains very positive for the economy

 – by New Deal democrat This morning a plethora of economic data was released, including personal spending and income, manuacturers’ new orders, motor vehicle sales, and jobless claims. Since tomorrow sees no significant data releases, I’m going to hold the in-depth look at spending and motor vehicle sales until tomorrow, and update the other releases today. […]

Roundup Wins in SCOTUS

Its good to be Monsanto! If you do not recall, I had written about the Monsanto issues years ago. Can’t find that post. In a nutshell, the “active ingredient is glyphosate. Mainly, it’s linked to carcinogenicity and the ability to cause cancer and specifically non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Unless, you go out in the field gress in […]

Real personal income in May was recessionary (again); depleting savings (temporarily?) “saves” the day

– by New Deal democrat The third item from this morning’s torrent of economic data I want to address is personal income and saving. I’ll update the spending side tomorrow, including an updated look at motor vehicle sales, which were also released this morning. On a nominal basis, personal income rose 0.7% in May, as […]

Increasing Black men’s educational attainment and other hard skills are likely to be helpful . . .

but they will not solve the problem. The cause of the low employment rate is not due to a lack of hard skills. A good piece examining the difference in employment between Black men, Hispanic men, etc, and white men. Even with an equivalent education as others, Black men employment is less than other groups. […]

Manufacturing sector continues to be positive through May

 – by New Deal democrat Per my post earlier this morning, I am going to delay until tomorrow reporting on motor vehicle sales and an in-depth look at personal spending, but let’s look at the second significant data release from this morning: manufacturers’ new durable goods orders for May. To cut to the chase, this […]

Favoring the Status Quo

Don’t need much of an explanation to introduce this piece . . . Who gets to decide? “How US Policymaking Institutions Reinforce Inequality and Favor the Status Quo,” Roosevelt Institute The Powers: The policymaking institutions established by the US Constitution are extreme in their capacity to impede policy change. Four characteristics explain why: (1) a […]

May new home sales: Another poor month for sales, prices stable, inventory increasing

– by New Deal democrat To start with the usual: new home sales are very volatile and heavily revised, which is why I pay more attention to single family permits. But they are the most leading of all the housing data; and averaged over three months, much of the noise goes away. In May, new […]

Consumer spending has turned red hot – expect no recession in the immediate future

 – by New Deal democrat Well, I was working on one nerdy long-term historical post this morning, when I decided to check the weekly update on consumer spending from Redbook. And, as you’ll see below, that was the end of that! (I may yet follow up this afternoon. We’ll see.) Last week, Redbook consumer spending was […]

The “quick and dirty” forecasting method has been flawless

– by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how I have been rethinking the long leading indicators — those that are useful for forecasting the economy 12-24 months out — because while when they are positive, the economy has been as well, but when they have been negative (twice) in the past 15 years, […]