Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

In the News – Sunday Morning

Senator Grassley tweeting: “Five times now we hv granted extension for Dr Ford to decide if she wants to proceed w her desire stated one wk ago that she wants to tell senate her story Dr Ford if u changed ur mind say so so we can move on I want to hear ur testimony. Come to us or we to u,”

I like how tweeting brings out the intellect in people and especially our politicians. And Chuckie the tweeting senator does this on a public forum with Ford and Kavanaugh so everyone can read along with him.

In New Jersey’s 2019 ACA marketplace, fruits of reinsurance, individual mandate, and silver loading.

New Jersey’s Dept. of Banking and Insurance has posted individual market health plan prices for 2019. Thanks to the state’s new reinsurance program, state-based individual mandate, and silver loading (actively encouraged by DOBI), unsubsidized enrollees will see price drops from 2018. For the subsidized, it looks pretty much like status quo ante — although network changes and plan design changes could alter that picture.

As was the case last year, AmeriHealth has sewn up all the lowest price points. AmeriHealth and Oscar are offering discounted silver plans off-exchange — presumably because of silver loading (Cost Sharing Reduction, available only with silver plans and only on-exchange, is not priced into off-exchange silver). Horizon is not offering any off-exchange discounts, but it has dropped prices about 7% from last year. A few salient year-to-year comparisons below. Quoted premiums are for a 46 year-old — where they’re a clean 1.5 times the base rate posted by DOBI. Andrew Sprung at xpostfactoid

More states should follow New Jersey’s lead.

Further evidence that the tax cuts have not led to widespread bonuses, wage or compensation growth. Economics Policy Institute.

Newly released Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employer Costs for Employee Compensation data allow us to examine nonproduction bonuses in the first two quarters of 2018 to assess the trends in bonuses in absolute dollars and as a share of compensation. The bottom line is that there has been very little increase in private sector compensation or W-2 wages since the end of 2017. The $0.03 per hour (inflation-adjusted) bump in bonuses between the fourth quarter of 2018 and the second quarter of 2018 is very small and not necessarily attributable to the tax cuts rather than employer efforts to recruit workers in a continued low unemployment environment.

Saving the Planet Doesn’t Mean Killing Economic Growth”

Noah Smith: Hickel cites analyses by the United Nations Environment Program and others showing that even big improvements in resource efficiency, encouraged by very high carbon taxes, will be unable to halt overall resource use or global carbon emissions. But this evidence doesn’t support Hickel’s conclusions, which rely on several misconceptions about the nature and the importance of growth.

Hickel doesn’t seem to grasp the fact of most economic growth happening in countries that are relatively poor. From 2010 to 2015 as determined by estimates by the IMF emerging markets, developing countries were responsible for about 70 percent of global output and consumption growth and advanced economies were responsible for the rest. World Bank’s forecasts for 2017-2019 are similar.

China’s contribution to global growth will be double the U.S. growth and India’s will be larger than the whole of the entire euro zone. The same is true of greenhouse gas emissions. Since about 1990, emissions from the U.S. and EU have fallen, while emissions from developing countries such as (and especially) China and India have exploded.

In 2017, the International Energy Agency estimated that the growth in energy-related carbon emissions in China and the rest of developing Asia was more than five times the growth in the European Union while U.S. emissions declined.

If Hickel and others succeed in stopping economic growth in developing countries, it will not be rich countries bearing the brunt of the change. It will be poor and middle-income countries such as India and China. The desperately poor African countries will not a chance at increased prosperity.

$600,000 in Debt and the Crisis is Worsening “The student loan default rate more than doubled between 2003 and 2011, and 40 percent of borrowers are expected to fall behind on their loans by 2023.”

There is a long history of Congress favoring financial institutions with laws and regulation blocking students from debt relief. Yet, our president can bankruptcy relief multiple times without any court or law blocking him. For him it is business as usual, getting a new loan to buy property and increase profits, pay the old loan with then new loan, and declaring bankruptcy when costs exceed cash inflow. Students do not have the luxury of gaming the system.

With the cost of an education in this country is only rising, borrowing is unlikely to slow. State funding for public colleges fell by $9 billion between 2008 and 2017, and the gap has been filled with tuition hikes. For the first time, half of all states relied more heavily on tuition last year than on government appropriations to fund higher public education. Americans now spend an approximate $30,000 per student a year to gain a college education or twice as much as the average developed country.

The IBR and Repaye programs put in place by well-meaning advocates has been a failure due to a lack of understanding in how to manage it yearly and with some servicers such as Naviente deliberating misleading students into multiple postponements of loans instead of into the income-driven repayment plans. The plans cap monthly payments at a percentage of the borrower’s income. It is not the first-time commercial interests have lied to students and taken a predatory approach on student loans. Naviente is being sued by five states and the CFPB.

Indian sailor Abhilash Tomy injured on disabled yacht.

A multinational rescue effort is underway to try to reach an injured sailor whose yacht is disabled in the South Indian Ocean.

Abhilash Tomy, a 39-year-old Indian naval commander, was competing in the 2018 Golden Globe Race. The race is a nonstop, 30,000-mile solo yachting competition that bars the use of modern technology. To me, this sounds like a lot of fun and a lot of work. I always like to sail as the quiet of the water is soothing.

Abhilash Tomy boat the “Thuriya,” hit a storm in the South Indian Ocean. The 36-foot boat was one of several hit by 80 mph winds and 46-foot seas midway across the South Indian Ocean on Friday, day 82 days of the race. Thuriya’s mast was broken about 1,900 miles southwest of Perth, Australia and “at the extreme limit of immediate rescue range,” according to media statements.

Organizers became concerned after Tomy sent a text message reading: “ROLLED. DISMASTED. SEVERE BACK INJURY. CANNOT GET UP,” and then was unheard from for nearly 15 hours. In a later satellite text message, the sailor gave his location and wrote: “ACTIVATED EPIRB (Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacon). CANT WALK. MIGHT NEED STRETCHER.”

What is the White House Deflecting from Now?

It is no secret one of the strategies used by the White House is to deflect attacks on their agenda by creating another emer . . . spectacle . . . gency when the news and the opposition gets close to defeating their plans. The attack on Rosenstein as led by the NYT is just too easy, convenient, and laughable (almost). The deflections have happened too many times already. Trump holds Fire

Continuing on this path; “Kavanaugh Accuser Agrees to Testify” I am sure Grassley and other members of the Senate, Hatch, Cornyn, Cruz, Hannity, and the tier two Senators such as Flake, etc. will make this debacle into another shameful attack on Ford, women, and the truth. What, no women on the Repub side? I am sure the 4 women on the Dem side can support Ford and strike back.

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The Messenger Wore A Skirt

I had written this in 2009 and it also appeared in “the new agenda.” It is a decent piece about people who saw the coming crisis pre-2007/8 and those who opposed them.

Recently, Stanford Magazine did an article on one of the University’s former law review presidents who graduated at the top of the 1964 class. The first female to hold either distinction of graduating first in her class and also as president of the school’s Law Review. Prophet and Loss. Stanford Magazine, April 2009.

“Well, you probably will always believe there should be laws against fraud, and I don’t think there is any need for a law against fraud,” Alan Greenspan

“I thought it was counterproductive. If you want to move forward . . . you engage with parties in a constructive way,” Rubin told the Washington Post. “My recollection was . . . this was done in a more strident way.”

“characterized as being abrasive.” Arthur Levitt

It would seem the three coupled with Larry Summers’s push back in Congress on the regulation of derivatives, had the problem and not Brooksley Born. Since then, all three men have suggested there should have been more regulation of the derivatives market Greenspan has called its recent collapse a “once in-a-century credit tsunami.” Called a modern-day Cassandra by Stanford Magazine, one could only wonder where we would be today if the economic and financial wizards had taken heed of Brooksley’s warning.

Short histories on CDO/CDS . . . Collateral Debt Obligations (CDO) were invented by Drexel Burnham Lambert (Milken) as a way to package asset-based securities. The CDO was tranched into similar asset backed securities of the same rating allowing investors to concentrate on the rating rather than the issuer of the bond. Ten years later, JP Morgan invented Credit Default Swaps (CDS) which was used as a mechanism to bet on a 3rd party default. In 2000, CDS were made legal with the passage of the Commodity Futures Modernization Act and any regulation of them was stymied with this bills passage. Later on, an investment firm decided to team CDS and CDO together, transferring the risk from the CDO to the issuer of the CDS, and creating a synthetic CDO. Few CDS if any and their counters naked CDS had the reserves set aside to payout a claim against a failed CDO.

It was 1994, Bankers Trust lost ~$800 million from various derivative investments. The chief losers were P&G and Gibson Greetings. Bankers Trust was formed by a consortium of banks, shedding the loan image for conducting trades. Bankers Trust was successfully sued by P&G for its losses by claiming racketeering and fraud. Bankers Trust also became known for its remarks about Gibson Greetings not knowing what Bankers Trust was doing. In 1998, Bankers Trust pled guilty to institutional fraud due to the failure of certain members of senior management to escheat abandoned property to the State of New York and other states.

In 1998, LCTM was struck by a downturn in the market when Russia defaulted on government bonds, a security LCTM was holding. To make a significant profit on small differences in value, the hedge fund took high-leveraged positions. At the start of 1998, the fund had assets of about $5 billion and had borrowed about $125 billion. When investors panicked and sold Japanese and European bonds and bought US treasuries, the spreads between LCTM holdings increased, resulting in a loss of ~$1.8 billion by August 1998. LCTM was saved by an orchestrated Fed bailout utilizing private investors.

In both cases, the history was there to call for more regulation.

It was in 1998, Brooksley Born testified to Congress about the dangers of the unregulated derivatives market referencing the LCTM losses as a recent example. It was then deputy Treasurer Larry Summers testified to Congress that Born’s desire to regulate is “casting a shadow of regulatory uncertainty over an otherwise thriving market.” Larry’s testimony set the stage for Congress to rein in the power of the Brooksley Born’s and the CFTC with the passage of Phil Gramm’s Financial Service Modernization Act of 1999 prohibiting the regulation of the derivatives market (In 2005, the revised bankruptcy laws would place derivatives outside of the laws making it the first in line to receive compensation). Wall Street and banks had clear unregulated sailing in the sea of laissez faire in 2000 with a closing of the door for debtors in 2005. It was little better than a roach motel, you could check in but you could never check out.

In 1999 in the Senate, opposition arose to the passage of the Financial Services Act in the form of North Dakota’s Senator Dorgan. An excerpt from the Senator’s speech the day before the bill was passed:

I, obviously, am in a minority here. We have people who dressed in their best suits and they just think this is the greatest piece of legislation that has ever been given to Congress. We have choruses of folks standing outside this Chamber who spent their lifetimes working to get this done, to say: Would you just forget all that nonsense back in the 1930s about bank failures and Glass-Steagall and the requirement to separate risk from banking enterprises; just forget all that. Time has moved on. Let’s understand that. Change with the times.

We have folks outside who have worked on this very hard and who very much want this to happen. We have a lot of folks in here who are very compliant to say: Absolutely, let me be the lead singer. And here we are. We have this bill, which I will bet, in 5, 10, 15 years from now, we will be back thinking of this bill like we thought of the bill passed in the late 1970s and early 1980s, in which this Congress unhitched the savings and loans so some sleepy little Texas institution could gather brokered deposits from all around America and, like a giant rocket, become a huge enterprise. And guess what. With all the speculation in the S&Ls and brokered deposits and all the things that went with it that this Congress allowed, what did it cost the American taxpayer to bail out that bunch of failures? What did it cost? Hundreds of billions of dollars. I will bet one day somebody is going to look back at this and they are going to say: How on Earth could we have thought it made sense to allow the banking industry to concentrate, through merger and acquisition, to become bigger and bigger and bigger; far more firms in the category of too big to fail?

Daily KOS, Senator Dorgan’s Speech, November 4, 1999 on “Gramm-Leach – Bliley Act” also known as the Financial Services Modernization Act (you can hear the 16-minute speech here or read it)

Larry Summers has been present throughout much of this change, supporting it, denigrating the opposition, and claiming his experience at D. E Shaw gave him an insider’ knowledge as to how the derivatives market works. While President of Harvard University; Larry received a letter (May 12, 2002) from Iris Mack, a new employee of the Harvard Management Company managing Harvard’s endowment funds. A Doctorate in Mathematics from Harvard and a former employee of Enron who dealt in derivative trades, she expressed concern about the trades (swaps and other complex financial instruments) being made by the funds and the lack of understanding of the trades by the traders. On July 1, Iris was called into the office of Jack Meyer, the chief manager of Harvard Management. On July 2, Iris was fired for making what Harvard Management termed as: ‘baseless allegations against HMC to individuals outside of HMC.”Ex-Employee Says She Warned Harvard of Risky Moves” Boston Globe, April 3, 2009. While Harvard Management Company claims above normal returns on its endowment funds, it has spent much of last year selling off private equity and investments to raise cash to pay for losses.

The attitude expressed by the head of the Economic Council was one of “trust me now” as I have all of the experience necessary to fix the current economic and financial problems. Instead he has promulgated the issues of the collapse by denigrating Brooksley Born’s request to Congress for regulatory power, ignoring the advice of Iris Mack at Harvard University, by consulting to D.E. Shaw (hedge fund) making ~$5.2 million as the financial engineer’s engineer following a model Buffet called Financial Weapons of Destruction, and he has been repeatedly wrong in his direction and advice to Congress and Industry.

In the game of deregulation and global efficiency, Larry Summers was its cheer leader signing off on a letter encouraging the dumping of toxic wastes in Asia at the World Bank. He helped to shepherd China into the WTO claiming:

The agreement with China is a one-way street. China opens its markets to an unprecedented degree, while in return the United States simply maintains its current market access policies.
‘It is difficult to discern any disadvantage to the United States in passing this legislation.
Larry Summers and Senator Dorgan, Angry Bear blog.

Personality, ego, and a blind belief in the ability of the market place to dictate the proper path and the correction has gotten in front of common sense. Maybe it was time to sideline Greenspan, Summers and his protégé Geithner beliefs in favor of Born, Mack, and Dorgan’s?. The latter has shown more foresight into how today’s problems and issues were created and how to resolve them. SEC head Arthur Levitt later recanted his decision to support the Commodity Futures and Modernization Act calling it one of the worst decision he ever made.

I certainly am not pleased with the results. I think the market grew so enormously, with so little oversight and regulation, that it made the financial crisis much deeper and more pervasive than it otherwise would have been.” Brooksley Born, Stanford Magazine, April 2009

*’The messenger wore a skirt,’ says Marna Tucker, a Washington lawyer and a longtime friend of Born. ‘Could Alan Greenspan take that?’”

run75441@ Angry Bear Blog
revised Sept. 20, 2018

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Presidential alert sysytem

Via AOL is an interesting program:

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is testing a new “presidential alert” system nationwide for the first time next week that will make it possible for Donald Trump to directly message nearly everyone in the nation who has a cell phone.

Officials insisted that the system cannot be used for political purposes. FEMA also assured people that it can’t track cell phone users’ locations through the alert system.

No one with a cell phone can opt out of presidential alerts.

The Wireless Emergency Alert system message test is being carried out by FEMA in coordination with the Federal Communications Commission, FEMA said in a statement posted on its website Thursday.

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Fighting Opioid and Painkiller Addiction

Some History

In 1980, a letter to the editor of the New England Journal of Medicine by the Boston Collaborative Drug Surveillance Program stated “the risk of addiction was low when opioids such as oxycodone were prescribed for chronic pain.” It was a brief statement by the doctors conducting the study which was cited many times afterwards as justification for the use of oxycodone.

In a June 1, 2017 letter to the NEJM editor, the authors reported on the broad and undocumented assumptions made as a result of the 1980 Letter on the Risk of Opioid Addiction. Using bibliometric analysis of the impact of this letter to the editor, the citations of the 1980 letter were reviewed to determine the citation’s portrayal of the letter’s conclusions.

Identified in the bar chart are the number (608) of citations of the 1980 letter over a period of time from 1981 to 2017.

72.2% (439) of the citations, quoted the letter or used it as evidence addiction was rare in patients when treated with opioids such as oxycodone. 80.8% or 491 of the citations failed to note the patients described in the letter were hospitalized at the time they received the prescription.”

There was a sizable increase of citations after the introduction of OxyContin (extended release oxycodone) in 1995. As the analysis noted “affirmational citations of the letter have become less common in recent years in contrast to the 439 (72.2%) positive and supporting citations of the 1980 correspondence in earlier years. The frequency of citation of this 1980 letter stands out as being unusual when compared to other published and cited letters. Eleven other published, stand-alone, and more recent letters on different topics published by the NEJM were cited at a median statistic of 11 times each.

Citations of the 1980 stand alone letter on “addiction being rare” from the use of opioids such as oxycodone failed to mention, the patients administered to were in a hospital setting as noted in the letter by Porter and Jick. Overlooked, a mistake by the people citing this letter? “In 2007, the manufacturer of OxyContin and three senior executives of Purdue Pharma plead guilty to federal criminal charges that they misled regulators, doctors, and patients about the risk of addiction associated with OxyContin.”

Organization: “An early manifestation of the opioid abuse, addiction, and overdose problem occurred largely in the rural regions of Kentucky and other parts of Appalachia after the introduction of Oxycontin. A brand name for oxycodone, OxyContin was introduced in 1996 by Purdue Pharma and aggressively sold to doctors. Sold as a less-addictive alternative to other painkillers as it was made in a time-release formulation, allowing for a slow onset of the drug, and not a hit all at once which is more likely to lead to abuse. When used as prescribed, Oxycontin was safe. When ground up, it’s slow release characteristics were marginalized.

The aggressive sales pitch led to a spike in prescriptions for OxyContin of which many were for things not requiring a strong painkiller. In 1998, an OxyContin marketing video called “I Got My Life Back,” targeted doctors. In the promotional, a doctor explains opioid painkillers such as OxyContin as being the best pain medicine available, have few if any side effects, and less than 1% of people using them become addicted.

Shortly after 1996, Porter and Jick’s letter citations doubled and continued to be cited in a positive fashion with few negative citations and a failure to mention the hospital setting where the drugs were administered.

More Recent

By 2015 over a six-year period, more than 183,000 deaths from prescription opioids were reported in the United States. Today, millions of Americans are now addicted to opioids.” In part much of this was the result of doctors being told there was a low risk to opioid addiction.

Figure 2 shows each year being progressively worse and reaching a record high of 71,568 deaths (2017) in the US due to all drug overdoses as reported by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in their “Provisional* estimates on U.S. drug overdose. According to the CDC this is a record and represents a 6.6% national increase in overdose deaths over 2016.

At the end of the 12-month period of January 2018, the reported deaths was 69,703. The final and predicted number of deaths is expected to be as high as 71,568. 0.18 of 1% of the reports are pending the completion of investigation (numeric within chart). *Underreported due to incomplete data.

*Provisional counts of all drug overdose deaths are underestimated relative to final counts. The degree of underestimation is determined primarily by the percentage of records with the manner of death reported as “pending investigation” and tends to vary by reporting jurisdiction, year, and month of death. Specifically, the number of drug overdose deaths will be underestimated to a larger extent in jurisdictions with higher percentages of records reported as “pending investigation,” and this percentage tends to be higher in more recent months”.

In 2018 law makers questioned Miami-Luken and H.D. Smith wanting to know why millions of hydrocodone and oxycodone pills were sent (2006 to 2016) to five pharmacies in four tiny West Virginia towns having a total population of about 22,000. Ten million pills were shipped to two small pharmacies in Williamson, West Virginia. The number of deaths increased along with the company and wholesaler profits.

For context, the nearly 72,000 drug overdose deaths (spurred by the ongoing opioid painkiller addiction epidemic, including the increased use of more potent synthetic opioids [fentanyl]) outpaced fatalities from suicide, or from influenza and pneumonia, which claimed about 44,000 and 57,000 lives in 2016. It nearly rivaled the approximately 79,500 people who die from diabetes-related complications each year in the U.S. (the 7th leading cause of death).

Nearly 150,000 Americans die each year from accidents such as car crashes, injuries, or accidental overdoses. If the CDC’s latest figures are accurate, drug overdoses could account for nearly half of accidental deaths.

As tends to happen with public health epidemics, overdoses have an outsize effect in certain regions. For instance, the biggest spike in fatalities by percentage occurred in Nebraska, North Carolina, New Jersey, Indiana, and West Virginia (33.3%, 22.5%, 21.1%, 15.1%, and 11.2% rises, respectively). But areas like Wyoming, Utah, and Oklahoma experienced declines of 9.2% to 33%.

With the clamp down on opioid prescriptions by doctors due to the abuse, addiction, and overdoses, those addicted to opioids turned elsewhere. Again Recall Report;

“In 2015 heroin overdose deaths in the U.S. surpassed the number of deaths by gun homicide for the first time ever. In addiction treatment facilities around the country, heroin addiction is becoming the most common reason to enter treatment, surpassing even alcohol addiction.

In combatting the prescription painkiller addiction epidemic, public officials may have unwittingly contributed to the heroin epidemic. As prescription opioids became more difficult to obtain and more expensive, addicts turned to a cheaper similar high: “heroin.” Mexican drug cartels were more than willing to supply the demand and much of the cheap heroin in use in the country now comes through Mexico.”

The ease of accidentally overdosing can be a tragic consequence resulting from the abuse of opioids and heroin. Both drugs act upon areas of the brain controlling breathing and depress it. Too much opioid drug can cause a person to stop breathing and their subsequent death. Add alcohol or a sedative and the risk increases. To combat the impact of overdosing on opioids or heroin, Narcon in an injection or a nasal spray format acts as an antagonist reversing the effects of opioids and the overdose.

Stopping the abuse of opioids is an important measure in gaining control of the growing number of people becoming addicted to opioids and dying from its abuse. Once addicted, treatment is essential with detox and withdrawal the first painful step back to a normal life. Without supervised treatment and/or residing in a residential treatment center, the return to opioid usage and addiction is easy as the cravings for using it again are powerful. As a resident in a treatment center, therapy, support, and medical treatment with drugs is possible.

The abuse of opioids and subsequent addiction will remain a problem for years to come until the supply of it is brought under control.

Prescription Painkiller Addiction: A Gateway to Heroin Addiction, Recall Report Organization

A 1980 Letter on the Risk of Opioid Addiction, NEJM, June 1, 2017

Supplementary Appendix NEJM, June 1, 2017; Copy of Porter and Jick’s letter to NEJM in 1980.

Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts CDC, National Center for Health Statistics, August 5, 2018

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Is the Ecological Salvation of the Human Species at Hand?

The July-August issue of New Left Review published an essay by Robert Pollin titled “De-growth vs. Green New Deal” in which he outlines his objections to what Peter Dorman affectionately refers to as “a suicide cult masquerading as a political position.” I have written a response to Pollin’s article, that I have submitted to NLR, a draft of which, “Pollin’s Green New Deal: Blueprint for Ecological Salvation?” may be downloaded as a pdf file from dropbox.

In my response I am particularly interested in how Pollin’s argument unwittingly recapitulates Robert Solow’s from 46 years earlier, right down to the percentage of gross income to be invested in clean energy (Pollin) or pollution abatement (Solow). The ubiquitous “decoupling” turns out to be a euphemism for resource input productivity and not a particularly helpful one. Proponents often referring to the decoupling of GDP growth from “CO2 emissions” when what they mean — unless they intend to deceive — is the decoupling of the derivative rates of change.

A point I have mentioned previously is that Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen was not advocating “degrowth” as an ecological panacea. What he was saying (and what he wrote) was that evolution and history involve “permanent struggle in continuously novel forms” and is not a “predictable, controllable process.” There is no “blueprint,” no “built-in mechanism,” no 20 or 30 year investment plan, (and no pure interpretation of the U.S. constitution or the Bible) that will relieve us of that permanent struggle.

Reverse ‘Decoupling’ in the 21st Century

Post Script: I almost forgot to mention, there is this conceit on the part of technocrats to insist that if you don’t have a “blueprint” for how you’re going to “solve the problem” you’re not really serious. “Get out of the way!” This is a symptomatic late 18th century, early 19th century bourgeois viewpoint and is exemplified in Andrew Ure’s Philosophy of Manufactures. The machine and the factory were viewed as the pinnacle of human achievement and the best one could do is emulate their automatism.

Pollin plays the “degrowthers don’t have a programme and I do!” card with a vengeance. Of course the more detail and moving parts such a programme has, the better because the closer it resembles a machine or even a factory containing many machines. With that kind of challenge, it is very tempting to come up with a detailed programme to illustrate how various scenarios might work out in practice. But such competition will inevitably be judged on mechanistic grounds.

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Trump’s base: not the white working class, but white evangelicals — all men and lesser-educated women — who believe the ends justify the means

Trump’s base: not the white working class, but white evangelicals — all men and lesser-educated women — who believe the ends justify the means

Via Digby:
__________________
1. Trump has always been unpopular with college-educated voters

[A] Pew Research assessment … [using a] validated voter survey (they matched voter file with the survey respondents) showed white women narrowly preferring Trump to Clinton by 2 points – 47 percent to 45 percent. … the Pew data suggests white women have always been, at best, ambivalent about Trump.

… Clinton won (white college-educated voters ) voters by 17 points!

… if you compared Trump’s current standing with the Pew data[,] Trump took 38 percent of college-educated voters in 2016, and his current standing with these voters is….37 percent. Their vote preference in 2016 (38 percent Trump to 55 percent Clinton), pretty much mirrors their vote preference for 2018 – 39 percent Republican to 54 percent Democrat.

2. But the biggest determinant is whether a voter is evangelical

Mike Podhorzer, AFL-CIO’s political director, suggests that … [w]hat really distinguishes a Trump-supporting white voter from one who doesn’t isn’t education or even gender, it’s whether or not that voter is evangelical.

 

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Oklahoma Teachers Purge Statehouse of Their Enemies

“For nearly a decade, Republican officials have been treating ordinary Oklahomans like the colonial subjects of an extractive empire. On Governor Mary Fallin’s watch, fracking companies have turned the Sooner State into the earthquake capital of the world; dictated policy to her attorney general; and strong-armed legislators into giving them a $470 million tax break — in a year when Oklahoma faced a $1.3 billion budget shortfall.”

The state went from having 3 earthquakes a year to greater than 500 earthquakes per year as caused by the amounts of liquid being pumped back into the ground in disposal wells.

The Oklahoma AG happened to be the former EPA Chief Scott Pruitt who took a letter from Devon Energy’s William Whitsitt, put it on his letterhead, and sent it to the EPA.

What angered the Oklahoma teachers? “Between 2008 and 2015, Oklahoma’s slashed its per-student education spending by 23.6 percent.”

August 28, the Oklahoma’s GOP primary season came to an end. Teachers beat the billionaires in a rout. Nineteen Republicans voted against raising taxes to increase teacher pay last spring and only four will be on the ballot this November.

Oklahoma Teachers Just Purged the Statehouse . . . , Daily Intelligenter, August 29, 2018

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Dutch Police React to Knife Attacker

‘A suspect has been shot after a stabbing incident at Amsterdam Central Station,’ Dutch police said on Twitter.”

Briefly:

– Two people stabbed by an attacker.
– Three shots fired by Police.
– Two victims stabbed taken to the hospital.
– Wounded attacker taken to the hospital.

Attacker did not have a bullet-spewing-weapon. No 30 rounds sprayed about by police. No one dead.

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Reskilling America

Conversable Economist Tim Taylor presents a chart representing spending over a life time on Education and Skills in America.

“Figure 4 (depicted) is from a report by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, titled “Addressing America’s Reskilling Challenge” (July 2018). The blue area shows public education spending, which is high during K-12 years, but the average spending per person drops off during college years. After all, many people don’t attend college, and of those who do many don’t attend a public college. Private education spending shown by the red area takes off during college years, and then trails off through the 20s and 30s of an average person. By about age 40, public and private spending on education and skills training is very low. Spending on formal training by employers, shown by the gray area, does continue through most of the work-life.

The figure focuses on explicit spending, not on informal learning on the job. As the report notes: “Some estimates suggest that the value of these informal training opportunities is more than twice that of formal training.” Nonetheless, it is striking that the spending on skills and human capital is so front-loaded in life. The report cites estimates that over a working lifetime from ages 25-64, the average employer spending per person on formal training totals about $40,000.”

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