Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The housing market’s new suboptimal equilibrium: flat, flat, and flat

 – by New Deal democrat It has been four years since the Fed started aggressively raising interest rates, causing mortgage rates to rise similarly. It has been over four years since home sales peaked, and also about four years since the median price of a new home peaked. Finally, it has also been four years […]

What is Going on at SCOTUS? Attempted Ban on Semi-Automatics and Birthright Decision

Beyond the Headlines: The Supreme Court’s Final Decisions” (two), Civil Discourse, Joyce Vance First one is ongoing and the second was decided. About a five-minute read with clear explanations and more detail on the site. – Bans on Semi-Automatic rifles? Are bans legal? In particular the AR-15 is being discussed. Some explanation and still a […]

The triumph of hope over experience?

Green Mountain College in Poultney VT closed in 2019 due to insufficient funds. Now, a traveling Pentecostal preacher from Florida has announced on Facebook (from Disneyland) that he’s gonna make it into a Christian fundamentalist college in the least religious state in the nation. The whiskey magnate Raj Bhakta bought the campus in 2020 and […]

Once was not Enough

Taken from today’s SCOTUS Blog. The president thinks he is special and is entitled to second hearing by SCOTUS on the same issues.. President Jjackass is again attempting to have birthright overridden in SCOTUS; Trump wants court to rehear birthright citizenship case,” SCOTUSblog. “President Donald Trump announced that he would seek ‘to get the Supreme […]

Jobles claims: the “low-hire, *no*-fire” regime continues, as the “Quick and Dirty” forecast model remains positive

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims. In addition to being 1/2 of my “quick and dirty” forecasting system (the other 1/2 being stock prices), they have a 60 year history of being a good short leading indicator. [Later this morning we’ll get existing home sales, and I’ll […]

“Having Air Conditioning Is Not a Climate Sin”

As Lloyd says it, the real issue here are people and their habits of abusing the climate. These issues have been getting more and more serious as the years go by. And the people and their governments have been ignoring the coming threat of increasing heat. The attitude has been, we can fix it tomorrow. […]

Quote of the day

The U.S. abandoning NATO now doesn’t mean Europe will revert to a 1914 mindset; too many economic, cultural, and political threads have been sewn together in the post-WWII period for it to revert to that arrangement. But it is a distinctly American myopia to think Europe will stand pat, won’t evolve on its own as […]

Yes, wars have consequences, and the war with Iran seems to have been a serious mistake.

Tyler Cowen has a post up about recent developments in the U.S./Iran war. His post contains criticism of some not-so-smart and confused but unnamed others, and an attempt to win an argument with these unnamed opponents by questioning their credentials. I find this an unhelpful mode of argument. But he does ask an interesting question, […]

Once Again It Appears Iran has Rejected the Three Doors Being Offered-Up in “Tr__P Making Deals” Proposal

I keep imaging a a bizarre format “lets make a deal” by Tr__p attempting to entice Iran to accept a cease-fire in what he calls a “deal.” No other president has offered up (so many) deals when he negotiates or legislates. Just to be clear. I am aware of Teddy Rosevelt’s Square Deal, then Franklin […]