Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Democrats Get Their Fair Share of Billionaire Donations

This should not be much of a surprise to anyone. Unless they are independently wealthy (some are), I would expect Dems to secure their portion of donations from the politically interested. However, it appears people had more interest in Republicans this time. Trump cleaned up with three times the amount Kamala Harris received. This opens […]

More evidence for the re-emergence of residual seasonality in jobless claims, but still very positive

– by New Deal democrat  From 2023 through midyear 2025, there was a distinct pattern of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality to jobless claims, which rose in the first half of the year, and then declined in the second half. Beginning at the end of June last year, though, there was a “change of regime in jobless claims numbers,” […]

Even adjusting for gas prices, consumers went on a (wealth effect- generated?) spending spree in May

 – by New Deal democrat Consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and retail sales is our first wide measure of that spending. And since consumption leads employment, it is an important real world measure. In May, after two months of being dominated by gas prices, it was even more decisively driven by a likely […]

Ultraprocessed foods are not poison

As any pharmacologist or toxicologist will tell you, the dose makes the poison. Most rice contains arsenic. Baked goods contain acrylamide. Seafood contains methylmercury. Natural groundwater contains fluoride. But in moderation, none of those things are toxic. Thanks to RFK Jr, there’s been a lot of silly nattering about the alleged dangers of ultraprocessed foods. […]

Housing continues in the doldrums, but its decline failed to give rise to a post-pandemic recession

 – by New Deal democrat When it comes to housing, the post-pandemic economy has been odd. That’s because, as of last year by all accounts housing had deteriorated  sufficiently that a recession should already have begun. Not only did that not (quite) happen, but the current situation would be more congruent with such a recession ending […]