Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A Jump in the Global Temperature

Scientists have concluded a few years ago the Earth has entered a new climate state. This is one not seen in more than 100,000 years. Read elsewhere, that conclusion was part of a climate assessment report  published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021. In 2024, we are threading in new temperature events which […]

Manufacturing and construction make up the vast bulk of the goods producing sector, and they are still trending postive

The leading sectors of the labor market are still generally trending positive  – by New Deal democrat Our economic news drought ends tomorrow with the CPI report, and I’ve beaten the issue of unemployment to death, so today let’s turn to the leading sectors from the Establishment Survey portion of the jobs report, whereas I’ve […]

Extending the Legacy of the 2001, 2003, and 2017 Republican Tax Breaks, Part 2

After Decades of Costly, Regressive, and Ineffective Tax Cuts, a New Course Is Needed, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Part 2 Steps to Creating a Better Tax System (a given) Instead of doubling down on the flawed trickle-down path of the Bush and Trump tax cuts, there are opportunities to work toward a tax […]

A closer look at inflation (Part 2 of 2): how the Fed’s rate hikes actually *exacerbate* inflation in shelter

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I discussed how virtually the entire issue of inflation remaining above the Fed’s target was the housing sector. Let me start today’s post where I left off yesterday: namely, that the net level of divergence between total headline inflation and shelter inflation of 1.15% is one of the highest such […]

April consumer prices: still an interplay of gas and house prices, with a side helping of motor vehicle insurance

 – by New Deal democrat First, a programming note: I’ll post about retail sales later today. Consumer inflation in April continued essentially to be an interplay between shelter and gas prices, with a side helping of auto insurance and repairs. During late 2022 and early 2023, shelter was still accelerating or steady at a high […]

Weekly Indicators May 6 – 10 by New Deal democrat

Weekly Indicators for May 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The majority of short leading and coincident indicators continue to show strength rather than weakness. This week it was commodity prices’ turn to show that the global economy is getting stronger. As […]

2024 SOCIAL SECURITY REPORT IS OUT THE MEDIA MISS THE POINT

The 2024 Social Security Trustees Report came out on Monday, May 6. You can find dozens of press reports and other commentary online, most of which are written by people who actually know nothing about Social Security except what they read in the papers. Some are written by people who do know what they are […]

Inflation Is Scrambling Americans’ Perceptions of Middle-Class Life

Inflation Is Scrambling Americans’ Perceptions of Middle-Class Life, businessinsider.com, Jennifer Sor Yes, we have inflation. It is a given. Inflation is scrambling the lives of middle-class Americans. Income is not keeping up with the costs of maintaining a Middle-Class Life. I have sat here in AZ watching this play out in the nation. In many […]

First Quarter GDP Growth at 1.6 Percent

by Dean Baker Commerce Department reported that GDP grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter, some-what lower than had generally been predicted. However, the headline number was held down by slow inventory accumulation, which subtracted 0.35 percentage points from growth, and a big rise in the trade deficit, which lowered growth […]

Coronavirus dashboard, 4 years into the pandemic: all-time low in hospitalizations, deaths likely to follow

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog On Friday the CDC updated its COVID death statistics through March 31, which means that we now have 4 full years of data. It also updated its hospitalization data through April 20, and to cut to the chase, last week saw a record low hospitalizations for COVID […]