I have a very extreme opinion about what we can learn from the struggle between Russian and Ukraine for control of the Black Sea. First I think it is agreed that Ukraine basically has won the struggle so far. First Russia removed naval vessels from Sebastopol to Russia proper — this is huge news as […]

Weekly Indicators for January 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There are almost always a few interesting ripples in the pond. In the past month, notably there has been the sudden collapse in YoY tax withholding payments. I’m not too concerned yet, […]

Producer prices flat, commodities decline, confirming shelter as sole inflationary pressure  – by New Deal democrat Once again producer prices confirmed that the only significant problem in inflation is shelter. In December commodity prices declined -1.3%. For finished goods they declined -1.2%. Even producer prices for services were unchanged: On a YoY basis, commodity prices […]

The good news on jobless claims continues  – by New Deal democrat The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first […]

Weekly Indicators for January 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I forgot to post this over the weekend, so here it is now: my Weekly Indicators post up at Seeking Alpha. I’ll put a post up later taking a detailed look at some aspects of Friday’s employment report.