Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Review of the Tax Code and Who Benefited the Most from the Breaks in It

A review of the tax break impacts from 1981 till 2020 and who benefited the most from them. I found it to be interesting and detailed in what was occurring during this time period. As you read it and review the graphs, I believe you will find the majority of the tax breaks were targeting […]

Questionable Use of Health Risk Assessments Drives Costs

“Medicare Advantage: Questionable Use of Health Risk Assessments Continues to Drive Up Payments to Plans by Billions,” Office of Inspector General | Government Oversight | U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Why OIG Did This Review Medicare Advantage (MA) companies receive higher risk-adjusted payments from CMS for enrollees who are sicker, which helps to […]

Difference in Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage Care

The Government made it possible for people to choose between Traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage for their care at 65. An alternative was provided under the guise of commercial healthcare providing better healthcare and other services to those who qualify for Medicare at a lesser cost. There are superficial and also meaningful pluses that are […]

October consumer Inflation firms, driven – as usual – by Shelter

 – by New Deal democrat Today’s CPI report for October generally showed stable monthly increases, but slight increases in YoY comparisons. But as usual, it was almost all about the usual culprit of shelter, as more fully parsed below; to wit:  – Headline CPI increased 0.2% for the month, the fourth month in a row […]

Watch Months-of-Supply! Housing

Watch Months-of-Supply! by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that is unlikely any time soon – however, as expected, months-of-supply is above 2019 […]

JOLTS report for September shows continued deceleration in almost all metrics, now close to a cause for concern

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. For several years, my mantra for a lot of statistics has been “deceleration.” Well, in the case of the employment market, we have passed the point where deceleration […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for October 21 – 25

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Ever since – and in response to – the really good jobs report early this month, interest rate yields on bonds have crept back up, giving back most of their summer gains. That puts some pressure on the long leading indicators. Also […]

Rebalancing of the housing market, new home sales edition: sales increase, prices firm

– by New Deal democrat Yesterday we got the existing home sales portion of the rebalancing of the housing market, showing sales down further, and price growth attenuation. This morning, we got the new home slice, which was a virtual mirror image. As per usual, while new home sales are only about 10% of the […]

Rebalancing of housing market continues: existing home sales down, inventory up, price growth moderates further

 – by New Deal democrat In the past number of months, I have been looking for a rebalancing of new vs. existing home sales. The sharp increase in mortgage rates beginning in 2022 locked many existing homeowners into their houses, since they could not afford the concomitant increase in mortgage payments that would accrue from […]

The Case for Kamala Harris . . . The Atlantic’s endorsement

Catch some good articles in The Atlantic. Usually take this on a long flight to read. He is all set for Halloween. The Atlantic came out for Kamala Harris. Guess they do not think much of the orange one. Scare the kids on Halloween and keep the candy. This is just a partial. If you […]