Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Bill McBride on private domestic investment

Bill McBride offers: A little holiday cheer … Discussions of the business cycle frequently focus on consumer spending (PCE: Personal consumption expenditures), but the key is to watch private domestic investment, especially residential investment. Even though private investment usually only accounts for around 15% of GDP, the swings for private investment are significantly larger than […]

Jobs reporting…gained and lost confusions

I noticed in comments on Spencer England’s post for this month’s Employment Situation that the 1.2 million jobs lost number was put forth as fact and a reason to dismiss BLS numbers outright. Links to a more careful and complete look at the numbers follows: Brad Plummer at the WaPo discusses two issues with employment […]

Housing equity withdrawal drove the bubble, not so much the building

Tim Duy also points to Bill McBride and Josh Lerner adding to the discussion of the narrative of housing in our economy and how that should affect policy.  I would add of course the variety of responses by the mortgage industries (see Naked Capitalism) since that started in earnest round 1998 (MERS).  I think this […]