Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

What Happened To Paying Off The National Debt?

A week ago, this commentary by Bill McBride was up on Calculated Risk. A bit of history dating back to 2001. A very timely post and one which fits in with what was happening today with the National Debt. Take note of who was pushing less stringent regulation, tax cuts, etc. It will pay for […]

AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year

AAR: March Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 03:25:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission by AAR to Bill McBride. Click on graph for larger image. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and […]

MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022”

Calculated Risk: MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022”, Bill McBride by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2023 01:42:00 PM From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 percent of all loans outstanding at the end […]

Bill McBride on private domestic investment

Bill McBride offers: A little holiday cheer … Discussions of the business cycle frequently focus on consumer spending (PCE: Personal consumption expenditures), but the key is to watch private domestic investment, especially residential investment. Even though private investment usually only accounts for around 15% of GDP, the swings for private investment are significantly larger than […]

Jobs reporting…gained and lost confusions

I noticed in comments on Spencer England’s post for this month’s Employment Situation that the 1.2 million jobs lost number was put forth as fact and a reason to dismiss BLS numbers outright. Links to a more careful and complete look at the numbers follows: Brad Plummer at the WaPo discusses two issues with employment […]

Housing equity withdrawal drove the bubble, not so much the building

Tim Duy also points to Bill McBride and Josh Lerner adding to the discussion of the narrative of housing in our economy and how that should affect policy.  I would add of course the variety of responses by the mortgage industries (see Naked Capitalism) since that started in earnest round 1998 (MERS).  I think this […]