Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Coronavirus dashboard August 9: BA.5 dominant, slowly waning, a model for endemicity

Coronavirus dashboard for August 9: BA.5 dominant, with a slow waning; a model for endemicity  – by New Deal democrat  BIobot’s most recent update, through last week, shows a decline of 15% of COVID in wastewater, consistent with about 460,000 “real” new infections per day: All 4 Census regions (not shown) are participating in […]

New tax law to help fund the United States government during the Civil War

I subscribe to Prof. Heather Cox’s site. I pick the posts I believe might be interesting to AB readers. This one fits the spirit of the day. August 5, 2022, Letters from an American, Heather Cox Richardson On this day in 1861, President Abraham Lincoln signed into law a new tax law to help fund […]

July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong

July jobs report: in which an absolute positive blowout make me happily wrong; all pandemic job losses now recovered  –  by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the short leading indicators for both jobs (real retail sales) and the unemployment rate (initial jobless claims) have each signaled that we should expect weaker […]

Jobless claims continue their relentless climb

Jobless claims continue their relentless climb  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to 260,000 last week. More importantly, the 4 week average, which has been rising relentlessly, rose another 6,000 as well to 254,750, an 8 month high.  Continuing claims also rose 48,000 to 1,417,000, the highest since April: Initial claims […]

JOLTS report for June amplifies likelihood of substantial downturn in job growth, upturn in unemployment

JOLTS report for June amplifies likelihood of substantial downturn in job growth, upturn in unemployment Before we get to the JOLTS report for June, which was released this morning, I wanted to make a point about the overall trend in employment. Because, the two best short leading indicators for employment and unemployment are both pointing […]

July mfg. and June constr. spending: leading components of both are negative

Quick note; “ISM metric strongly suggests that it is likely that the economy will enter recession no later than Q1 of next year, and possibly much sooner (but probably not now). more detail below July manufacturing and June construction spending: leading components of both are negative  – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new […]

The Bonddad Blog: Weekly Indicators for July 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for July 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There have been some interesting counter-trend movements in the indicators. For example, interest rates on mortgages have declined by more than 1% since their peak one month ago. Gas prices have declined by […]

Real income continued to fall in June, while consumers dug deeper to spend

Real income continued to fall in June, while consumers dug deeper to spend  – by New Deal democrat In June personal income rose 0.6% nominally, and nominal spending rose 1.1%. The personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, clocked in at 1.0%, meaning real income fell -0.4%, while real personal spending rose 0.1%. […]

How Changes In Changes In Inventories Have Brought US The “Recession” That Is Probably Not A Recession

How Changes In Changes In Inventories Have Brought US The “Recession” That Is Probably Not A Recession by Barkley Rosser, Econospeak  Based on just announced preliminary results, it looks like the US will have experiences negative GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2022. Based on a “rule of thumb” introduced in a New […]