– by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how I have been rethinking the long leading indicators — those that are useful for forecasting the economy 12-24 months out — because while when they are positive, the economy has been as well, but when they have been negative (twice) in the past 15 years, […]
This commentary shows several supporting links to it. Not a mistake, just different data. A look at Immigration to the United States. I have no problem saying much of the reasoning for a decline is the result of a presidential policy of forced deportation of immigrants. I am going to guess the people leaving consist […]
AB: Unless you were very fortunate, you probably rented an apartment, house, or some place in which to live. Even when we started out, rent took a sizeable amount of “our” income near Chicago. Jan being a paralegal and I finishing up college certainly solved the issue over time. Even then an early on, we […]
Weekly Indicators: Points Of Weakness – Just Static? There was another air pocket this week in withholding tax payments, and some weakening in mortgage applications, but the overall tone remains positive, despite the ongoing international chaos emanating from Washington. Once again there was little change this week, and all time frames remained positive. As usual, […]
Supposedly a $300 billion contribution gift is being made to Iran. It is coming from somewhere just like the tax breaks.. Supposedly it is not coming from the United States. Given the past experiences with Trump, it is hard to not believe this is coming from US Taxpayers. What if US taxpayers footing the bill. […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing about the economy, and employing forecasting models, for over 20 years. For the entire duration of the period, there have been portents of DOOOM written about by many others. I have been much more cautious, going on “Recession Watch” only twice since 2008: in 2019 and late 2022. […]
Not that this is any surprise. Employers have always been looking for way to downsize Labor input in products. Whether it is through automation, better throughput due to factory upgrades, or going overseas. A I have pointed out previously, upgrading equipment (nc to cnc) can have a big input to reducing costs. Improve factory layout […]
– by New Deal democrat Yesterday, in addition to the retail sales report, general business sales and inventory were reported – but unfortunately only through April. Nominally, sales (red in the graph below) increased 1.2% while inventories increased 0.5%: Here is the longer term look at total business sales and inventories: In case it isn’t […]
Intro: Former Biden CEA Chair: Jared Bernstein from his new Econ Site. Right now Jared’s site is opened to all readers with no fees for the site. You may want to take a few moments and read what he has to say on various economic topics while you can, This commentary is on inflation and […]
This should not be much of a surprise to anyone. Unless they are independently wealthy (some are), I would expect Dems to secure their portion of donations from the politically interested. However, it appears people had more interest in Republicans this time. Trump cleaned up with three times the amount Kamala Harris received. This opens […]