My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The biggest news this week is how sharply oil prices backed off of their recent highs, as speculators figure that all will soon be back to (at least close to) the status quo ante in the Persian Gulf. Secondarily, the Empire State and Philly Manufacturing Indexes continued […]
– by New Deal democrat While inflation and interest rates took a whack at some of the data, most of the financial-related series (like the yield curve in the bond market and credit conditions) remain very positive. And consumer spending, likely by the uppermost income groups, actually posted one of its very best YoY comparisons in […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This is a good time for a reminder that very little of the high frequency data has been affected by the federal government shutdown, because almost all of it comes from the Fed or regional Feds, States, and private sources. That data continues […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were no big changes this week, but what continues to stick out in the data as far as I am concerned is just how strong consumer spending continues to be: weekly retail spending was up nearly 6% YoY, and restaurant reservations – […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the continued pause in actual tariff increases, the data has rebounded basically across the board from April and May. Even the long leading indicators have improved somewhat, led by some un-inversions of the yield curve and the improvement in corporate profits as […]
– by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were almost no changes to any of the high frequency indicators in any timeframe last week. Despite that, below the surface, there has been a very gradual weakening of a number of important indicators in both the monthly and weekly data. […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. You may be surprised to learn that despite the 10%+ stock market crash on Thursday and Friday, my rating for the short leading indicator of the S&P 500 is still “neutral.” That’s because the market is extremely volatile. There was an all-time […]
Weekly Indicators for March 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most important news in high frequency data was that we now have 4 of 5 reports from regional Feds for March, and all four showed a decline from last month, and 3 […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Despite the steep sell-off and rebound in the stock market this week, the underlying “hard data” indicators about money, spending, and transportation were all steady and almost all positive. The sell-off was about sentiment due to the uncertainty brought about by the […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The malign and moronic “policies” of the 2nd T—-p Administration so far have driven Economic Policy Uncertain to all time record highs: But despite that, the rumblings under the surface of the data have been quite minor so far. There are changes in […]