Scenes from the May employment report: leading indicators and the big picture – by New Deal democrat As I wrote Friday, the May employment report was deeply bifurcated, with a strong Establishment survey, but a weak Household survey. Let’s take a look at some of that bifurcation, focusing on the leading indicators. There are […]
Weekly Indicators for May 29 – June 2 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Much like yesterday’s employment report, which showed a deep bifurcation between the Establishment and Household Surveys, the economy as a whole is also showing a deep bifurcation between elements well into recessionary […]
Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. The establishment side of the report was strong, with most leading indicators improving. […]
New and improved initial claims! Now including comparison to Sahm Rule – by New Deal democrat I’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads the Sahm Rule. Just in case you’re not familiar with the Sahm Rule, it is a rule of […]
House prices may have bottomed, while YoY price increases (leading inflation) have declined to lower than their 25-year average – by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted house prices through March as measured by both the FHFA (light blue in the graphs below) and Case Shiller (dark blue) Indexes rose, the former by 0.7% and the […]
Weekly Indicators for May 22 – 26 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several of the indicators that popped higher one week ago sank back lower this week. The overall picture remains very slight positivity in the coincident numbers. Meanwhile stock prices continued to make […]
April report for real personal income and spending adds to the evidence that a cyclical peak might ultimately be dated to January – by New Deal democrat As I’ve repeated for the past several months, at present the report on personal income and spending is co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly […]
Initial claims: revisions rear their ugly head again – by New Deal democrat Revisions are a permanent hazard in reporting on economic data. That was very much in evidence in this week’s jobless claims report. Not only was last week’s number revised down by -17,000, but the initial report of 264,000 two weeks ago is […]
Financial markets in past fiscal crises; the “gold standard” of employment reports shows big deceleration in Q4 of last year – by New Deal democrat I have a post up at Seeking Alpha on how stocks, bonds, and consumers behaved during the 3 fiscal crises of the last decade. Hint: recessions are always disinflationary. Also of […]
New home sales and prices: yet another confirmation of a bottom in sales, while prices continue to decline YoY – by New Deal democrat The last of the monthly updates for new home construction, new home sales, was reported this morning. And it continued the theme from the other data (permits, starts, existing home sales); […]