Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Weekly Indicators for May 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for May 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. One measure of how the Russia-Ukraine war has been “normalized” globally, is that industrial commodity prices have declined sharply – on the order of 25% – in the past two weeks, taking back […]

Omicron has Peaked, Now What?

Coronavirus dashboard: Omicron has peaked; now what?, New Deal Democrat  – by New Deal democratLet’s start out with the good, or at least less catastrophic news: it’s almost certain that the Omicron wave has peaked in the US. In fact, the only Census region it is still up week over week is in the Midwest: […]

Weekly Indicators for January 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for January 10 – 14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. In addition to Omicron, commodity prices and interest rates are having an impact across the board on the long and short term forecasts and the nowcast. (Just for spite, two weeks ago some […]

Real Retail Sales tank; Industrial Production declines; Consumer slowdown?

December real retail sales tank; industrial production also declines; consumer slowdown seems nearly certain   – by New Deal democrat Two days ago, in connection with consumer inflation, I reiterated that: “we certainly are at a point where a sharp deceleration beginning with the consumer sector of the economy is more likely than not.” I […]

Continuing Unemployment Claims Make New 45+ Year Low

Continuing unemployment claims make new 45+ year low – by New Deal democrat New claims increased 23,000 last week to 230,000. The 4 week average of new claims increased 6,250 to 210,750: The big increase is likely affected by seasonality. It’ll be another week or two before we can tell if there is any real change […]

An Urgent Warning about Omicron’s Exponential Spread

A brief introduction, not to New Deal democrat, but to the subject matter. An extremely contagious new Covid virus is emerging globally and in the US. Those who have resisted inoculations and other preventative measures may find themselves particularly vulnerable. Reviewing the graphs presented, this virus will rapidly infect the US. This Covid Virus will […]

June data starts out mixed: manufacturing strong, housing stalls

June data starts out mixed: manufacturing strong, housing stalls, New Deal democrat June data started out this morning with the ISM manufacturing report. There was no big change from last month’s torrid pace. The overall index declined a very slight -0.6% to 60.6, while the leading new orders component declined by 1 to 66:Any number […]

New jobless claims: a surprise to the positive side

New jobless claims: a surprise to the positive side I have been paying particular attention to new jobless claims this year, as being the most important weekly economic datapoint to correlate with vaccination progress. My ultimate target for claims is an average of 325,000 or below, which would signify a return to normal expansion levels in […]

The long leading indicators: on the cusp of turning negative?

– by New Deal democrat The long leading indicators: on the cusp of turning negative? A “long leading indicator” is an economic metric that reliably turns a year or more before the onset of a recession. Geoffrey Moore, who for decades published the Index of Leading Indicators, and in 1993 wrote  Leading Economic Indicators: New […]

JOLTS, Labor Market Conditions index consistent with late 2017 recession

by New Deal deomocrat JOLTS, Labor Market Conditions index consistent with late 2017 recession   I continue to be unimpressed with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), as showing post-mid cycle deceleration for over a year.   I have found what I hope is a better way to present my argument, so that you […]