– by New Deal democrat       Forecasting the 2016 election economy, first forecast: the long leading indicators Last week I showed that, going back 160 years, roughly 3/4 of all US Presidential election results correlated positively with whether or not at the time of the election campaign, the US was in a recession […]

by New Deal democrat Forecasting the Presidential election: simply knowing whether the economy is expanding or in recession gives you the correct answer more than 2/3 of the time If you want a quick and dirty guide to whether an incumbent political party will retain control of the White House in a Presidential election, simply […]

– by New Deal democrat Part 1 The decline in prime age labor force participation: the smoking gun (part 2 of 2); comparing June Cleaver and Roseanne Conner I recently wrote about the compelling evidence that the biggest reason for the decline in the prime working age labor participation rate was the “child care cost […]

by New Deal democrat   (Bonddad blog) The decline in prime age labor participation: the smoking gun (Part 1of 2) I recently wrote about the compelling evidence that the biggest reason for the decline in the prime working age labor participation rate was the increase in the number of second-earner spouses who decided to stay […]

Some other insights on the data in addition to Angry Bear Spencer England: Mixed Message on the Labor Front BLS released its Employment Situation Summary for July. The payroll survey showed an increase in employment of $163 thousand but that unemployment rate rose to 8.3%. So what was the deal from the household survey? Actually […]