Suppose that you wake up tomorrow and discover that a sadistic alien has turned you into an economist. You are just getting over your shock at your new predicament (“How will I make friends? Will anyone ever trust me again? At least I’m not a lawyer.”) when Kamala Harris, responding to voter concerns about inflation, […]
Here is the campaign speech Harris delivered in Wisconsin. It’s good: short, to the point, and upbeat. She hits on the right issues: Trump is a criminal, abortion, economic opportunity, Republicans cannot be trusted with Social Security and Medicare, etc. A patriotic framing that emphasizes that the United States is a great country could help […]
It appears that the democratic nomination contest is wrapped up. People are voting with their wallets. Pelosi and Obama at one point appeared to favor some kind of competitive process, but Pelosi has evidently thrown her support behind Harris. Potential rivals are all standing down. Ezra Klein is still making the case for an abbreviated […]
Biden has been slightly behind Trump in the polls for months. Still, until now it was easy enough to discern a plausible path to victory. Democratic voters disappointed with Biden would gradually return to the fold as the choice between Biden and Trump became clear. Memories of inflation would fade. Trump would say outrageous things. […]
Will Biden drop out? Should he? What then? To run or not to run So far Biden seems determined to stay in the presidential race. He and his campaign have worked hard to tamp down any talk that he might step aside. Yet there is a reasonable chance he will step aside, especially if his […]
The long term effect of the debate may be small, but the race is at best a tie, and I just don’t see how Biden can turn it around. I’m not saying he should drop out or that his candidacy is doomed. He still may be the Dems best bet. Maybe the outcry about his […]
Imagine that Congress wants to address some social or economic problem by prohibiting certain undesirable acts. One approach Congress can take is to specifically describe the undesirable behavior and prohibit it. This approach sometimes works well – it is the basis of traditional criminal law – but it has two great disadvantages. First, in many […]
From the NYT: I am not sure what the claim is here. If the idea is that Hamas will get political credit if people do not starve, this is a totally unacceptable reason to withhold food. Maybe the worry is that Hamas will gain political leverage by monopolizing the distribution of food aid and distributing […]
Israel is on a dangerously self-destructive course. The brutality of the Gaza campaign is antagonizing allies and making it difficult for regional players to continue normalizing relations. The prospects for a durable peace are dimming at the same time that the policy of military supremacy that provided a modicum of security over the past two […]
According to one well-known theory of electoral competition, voters care about policies, and candidates pick policies to maximize their appeal to voters. This suggests that campaigns will try to appeal to the median voter. There is obviously something to this model, and this year, as always, it is a safe bet that each side will, […]