It is easy to think that those of us who favor a two-state solution are utopian dreamers.  The mantle of realism seems to rest naturally on those who insist on standing tough against a Palestinian state.  But this simple dichotomy has never been accurate, and the realist case for a renewed effort to achieve a […]

For the past few days I have been wondering if Netanyahu has a plan for responding to the Hamas terror killings, or if he’s just temporizing.  More and more, it seems like he is just skating in front of the breaking ice.  If this is right, it’s one more misdeed for which he and his […]

I do not follow the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians closely because it is complex, well outside my area of expertise, and deeply depressing.  I find it depressing because I have always believed in a two-state solution, and it has long been difficult watching that goal slip ever further out of reach.  After the […]

I want to use a tweet by Josh Marshall of TPM to make a broader point about strategic thinking in politics, the situation in the Republican House, and state of competition between Democrats and Republicans. Here is Mashall’s tweet: I don’t know what prompted this tweet.  I assume Marshall is criticizing media coverage of some […]

I think Democrats were probably right to refuse to bail out McCarthy.  The main reason is that this will likely prolong the current shitshow being staged by the House Republicans, which will help Democrats in 2024 by reminding voters just how crazy and exhausting the Republicans are.  The Republicans can’t do this often enough. The […]

Does AI pose a meaningful existential threat to humanity?  If an existential threat is one that can lead to mass death or human extinction, and a risk of extinction is meaningful if it is (say) at least 10% as large as the risk of a nuclear holocaust, my answer is that I have no idea. […]

I’m still trying to get my head around what happened with the debt ceiling. Is the proposed deal a win for Biden and the Democrats?   The conventional wisdom is that it was.  Catherine Rampell argues that the Republicans achieved little in the way of policy that they could not have gotten through the regular […]

The deal is much better than I expected for Democrats, and much worse for Republicans (preliminary summaries by Dayen and Stein).  Of course, the whole thing was destructive and pointless and the deal is bad in the way one would expect – it includes work requirements for some food stamp and TANF recipients.  On the […]

What should President Biden do if Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling?  What should he say he will do, in advance, to avoid a catastrophe and gain leverage in negotiations?  The answer to these questions is far from clear. Krugman and Klein on unorthodox legal strategies Paul Krugman argues that the administration should do […]

As of today, Trump seems well-positioned to win the Republican nomination.  The basic dynamic is familiar from 2016 – Trump has a strong base of committed supporters, the opposition will likely be divided, and many Republican primaries are winner-take-all or winner-take-most.  Couple this with the bump in support Trump got after his indictment in NY, […]