Trump’s inability to evaluate expert advice and incorporate it into his thinking will undoubtedly play a large role when histories of the Iran war are written. Trump evidently ignored warnings from experts within the government that Iran would respond to an attack by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Once the Strait was closed, Trump had […]
Thomas Edsall (gift link): I asked political and presidential scholars how they think Trump’s mind works. Most pointed to his seemingly exclusive reliance on his own judgment while rejecting expert advice. “Many presidents have made mistakes, but none have made mistakes so cavalierly as President Trump,” Michael Bailey, a political scientist at Georgetown University, wrote by […]
Tyler Cowen has a post up about recent developments in the U.S./Iran war. His post contains criticism of some not-so-smart and confused but unnamed others, and an attempt to win an argument with these unnamed opponents by questioning their credentials. I find this an unhelpful mode of argument. But he does ask an interesting question, […]
Elite opinion so far seems to be running against the deal, but the public may be won over. If the deal holds up, gas prices will come down. In addition, the economy will strengthen and the risk of recession will go down. This is why I thought Trump might just walk away from the war […]
Presumably the deal is embarrassing to either Iran or the Trump administration (or possibly to both parties). My guess is the embarrassment is on Trump. He gets nothing except the end of the global oil shortage he caused. The Iranians will get a large financial benefit in one form or another – a benefit that […]
Take a look at Trump’s approval rating at fiftyplusone. I have two observations that seem worth sharing. First, Trump’s approval has steadily declined throughout his term. The decline is so steady that it is difficult to see the impact of particular events. Perhaps the steady decline reflects the sheer number of unpopular decisions Trump is […]
It’s time to shit-talk the president. Congressional Democrats have had difficulty figuring out how to respond to Trump’s lawlessness, mendacity, stupidity, and cruelty. The democratic base wants them to talk tough, but the hard reality is that they have almost no formal power and lack a party leader. As a result, Trump has been left […]
The Supreme Court’s recent decision to gut the Voting Rights Act is a disgrace. I will return to the decision and how Democrats should confront the court in future posts. Here I want to make one point I haven’t seen discussed elsewhere. By allowing partisan gerrymandering and encouraging states to redraw majority-minority districts, the court […]
This is a speculative post. I don’t have any expertise in foreign policy. I just want to clarify my own thinking, and posting is a way to force myself to do this. So caveat lector, and let’s see what you all have to add. European leaders seem increasingly willing to criticize Trump. Here is Bloomberg: […]
New polling from Strength in Numbers shows the public supports impeachment, 55% in favor to 37% opposed. This supports the prediction from the betting market Kalshi that currently gives Trump a 68% chance of impeachment before the end of his term. (Note that removal by the Senate is much less likely than impeachment by the […]