Here is a simple thought experiment on the use of scarce vaccine supplies. Suppose that we had tested the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines with one dose per person and discovered that they were 85% effective at preventing covid-19. However, due to an administrative error, we gave some people two doses, and when we analyzed the data it […]
I am very sympathetic to Robert Waldmann’s argument that we should give twice as many people one dose of the new Pfizer/Moderna vaccines, at least until supply constraints are eased, instead of following the FDA approved vaccination protocol and giving everyone two doses right from the beginning. What follows is a rough way of thinking […]
I seem to be through the worst of it. My fever is down and my cough is subsiding. If I hadn’t gotten a covid test I would have thought I had a moderately bad cold. With a bit of luck, it’s all over except the quarantine. Thanks to everyone for their good wishes.
Apparently there are proposals circulating to pay people to get vaccinated. (Summary here.) The pro/con story is familiar enough. Monetary incentives might increase the uptake rate; but they might also increase suspicion and backfire, or at least not be very effective. Given the large cost involved – the number cited in the linked article is […]
I’m fairly certain I picked it up this past Tuesday. Wednesday night I had a slight throat-clearing cough. Not sure if this was covid related or not. Saturday I had a fever of 100.5, along with some achiness. I got tested on Saturday and received the positive test result on Sunday. Last night was a […]
Our friend Donald Boudreaux is at it again, dispensing misleading statistics that just so happen to favor libertarian outcomes. Two days ago Boudreaux posted some data on hospital capacity that seem to suggest that we do not need to worry about hospitals getting overwhelmed with COVID patients because capacity utilization over time is flat. As […]
I am often critical of libertarian economist Donald Boudreaux. This morning, I sent him an email criticizing a post of his in which he cited a study claiming that pcr tests for covid have a false positive rate of 80% or more. I pointed out that this is obvious nonsense, since overall test positivity rates, […]
Almost all Americans agree that the government should not actively discriminate against blacks and other racial groups, and most believe that private race discrimination should be prohibited as well. Many people would go further and support efforts to reduce the large racial disparities that persist in America despite formal legal injunctions against discrimination. Some believe […]
Progressive websites and even the mainstream media have been surprisingly blunt in their reporting on Trump’s attempt to steal the 2020 election. Many reporters and commentators have rejected bothsidesism and said openly that Biden has won and Trump is trying to steal the election. Quite a few have gone further and emphasized that his behavior […]
Matthew Yglesias has a good discussion of why the poll-based models that give Biden a high probability of winning are probably right, despite the well-known polling errors in 2016. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to believe that the poll-based models (538, The Economist) are overstating Biden’s chances, for several reasons. Turnout this year will be unusually […]