Elite opinion so far seems to be running against the deal, but the public may be won over. If the deal holds up, gas prices will come down. In addition, the economy will strengthen and the risk of recession will go down. This is why I thought Trump might just walk away from the war […]
Presumably the deal is embarrassing to either Iran or the Trump administration (or possibly to both parties). My guess is the embarrassment is on Trump. He gets nothing except the end of the global oil shortage he caused. The Iranians will get a large financial benefit in one form or another – a benefit that […]
Take a look at Trump’s approval rating at fiftyplusone. I have two observations that seem worth sharing. First, Trump’s approval has steadily declined throughout his term. The decline is so steady that it is difficult to see the impact of particular events. Perhaps the steady decline reflects the sheer number of unpopular decisions Trump is […]
It’s time to shit-talk the president. Congressional Democrats have had difficulty figuring out how to respond to Trump’s lawlessness, mendacity, stupidity, and cruelty. The democratic base wants them to talk tough, but the hard reality is that they have almost no formal power and lack a party leader. As a result, Trump has been left […]
The Supreme Court’s recent decision to gut the Voting Rights Act is a disgrace. I will return to the decision and how Democrats should confront the court in future posts. Here I want to make one point I haven’t seen discussed elsewhere. By allowing partisan gerrymandering and encouraging states to redraw majority-minority districts, the court […]
This is a speculative post. I don’t have any expertise in foreign policy. I just want to clarify my own thinking, and posting is a way to force myself to do this. So caveat lector, and let’s see what you all have to add. European leaders seem increasingly willing to criticize Trump. Here is Bloomberg: […]
New polling from Strength in Numbers shows the public supports impeachment, 55% in favor to 37% opposed. This supports the prediction from the betting market Kalshi that currently gives Trump a 68% chance of impeachment before the end of his term. (Note that removal by the Senate is much less likely than impeachment by the […]
Phillips P. O’Brien tries to convey the enormity of Trump’s failure in Iran. His bottom line: This is no run of the mill TACO. This is complete US strategic failure. Read the whole thing. The Iranian regime may end up with a stronger hold on power, unfettered access to enriched uranium, and massive revenue from […]
I don’t know if he has the legal authority to do this, but does it even matter with Trump? Domestic prices will rise if 1) foreign supplies fall and 2) domestic production is diverted to fill demand overseas. Trump could keep domestic supplies from being diverted and we could still use world markets to fill […]
Yesterday the House (barely) rejected an effort to block members from challenging Trump’s “emergency” tariffs. The sordid details are here. The Senate has previously taken some steps in this direction, and with Trump’s approval ratings still declining and the possibility of a mid-term wipe out looming it seems possible that we will see Congress move […]