It is an article of faith among those opposed to Trump’s efforts to build an American autocracy that we should not obey in advance. The charge of obeying in advance has been leveled forcefully against universities, law firms, and media companies that choose to placate the administration rather than resist its abusive demands. Yet the […]
Trump’s crackdown on the press should make clear that he will do anything to avoid a loss in the 2026 midterm elections. He will suppress dissent, he will use masked ICE agents to intimidate voters, he will declare his opponents terrorists – anything. And it is equally clear that we cannot count on the courts […]
According to Punchbowl News, via Political Wire, Schumer sounds like he is going to hang tough in budget negotiations. I think it is possible Democrats could win a shutdown fight, although the most knowledgeable political observers disagree. But if this is real, not political theater for angry base voters, then the Democrats should have a […]
In a very insightful analysis of the Kirk shooting G. Elliott Morris makes the following points (among others): Polls overestimate support for political violence. (The reason is that random responses to poll questions by people who are not paying attention lead to overestimates of support for very unpopular options. For example, if no one supports […]
There are more stories suggesting that the Democrats are preparing to hang tough in budget negotiations. But it’s not clear if their tough talk is just marketing aimed at appeasing base voters, or if it reflects a newfound commitment to budgetary hardball. Nor is it clear that Democrats have a negotiating strategy that will be […]
In my last post I discussed how the Democrats might use whatever leverage they have in the upcoming congressional budget negotiations. Here I want to circle back to the problem I flagged at the beginning of that post: Trump and congressional Republicans might well renege on any deal, either by refusing to expend appropriated funds, […]
Congress needs to pass a funding bill by the end of September to avoid a government shut down. In theory, the Democrats should have some leverage in these negotiations due to the need for 60 votes in the Senate. Unfortunately, as Jonathan Bernstein details here, the Democrats have few good options negotiating with Republicans and […]
Donald Trump wants to win the Nobel peace prize, but WAPO reports today that at least 3 of the 5 members of the prize committee have been publicly critical of Trump. While this is hardly surprising, I think the committee should change its approach. Instead of criticizing Trump, sometimes for issues only tangentially related to […]
From The Hill today: For Harris, there was more flexibility to define her brand of change. She could risk looking hypocritical by making clean breaks with Biden on policies she had supported as vice president, rejecting parts of their record to forge her own agenda. She could identify new issues to run on that avoided the pitfalls […]
This past Sunday the New York Times ran an essay (gift link) adapted from Ezra Klein’s new book with Derek Thompson. The book, which I look forward to reading, is on abundance liberalism. Klein’s essay begins as follows: I keep seeing Democrats say the resistance failed. On these pages, James Carville counseled Democrats to “roll over and […]