Michelle Goldberg has a sobering piece (gift link) on what she expects from a second Trump presidency. Her biggest fear is that Trump will undertake a large-scale roundup of unauthorized immigrants. Goldberg expects large protests in response to roundups, possibly followed by violent repression of protesters by the military. I agree that this is both […]
The election is very close. This piece explains why the polls could easily be off by 5 points or more. Because the polling errors are very likely correlated across states, this means there is a reasonable chance that the election will not end up being close, but we have no idea who is ahead. Trump […]
I am canvassing near Pittsburgh this week with a group of around 30. The first few days have been relatively uneventful. The weather has been beautiful. A few of my co-canvassers reported useful conversations, like one woman who wanted to vote but wasn’t sure who the pro-choice candidate was. I have had one conversation with […]
I will try to say more about this, but for now: You might have missed it, but in August, Gorsuch published a book titled Over Ruled, which argues that there are too many laws on the books and that government officials at both the federal and state levels are enforcing them in increasingly unpredictable and unjust ways. The […]
This is a guest post by Charles Euchner, a political scientist and former special projects editor at New America. Euchner is the author of the forthcoming The Rules of Activism: Political and Social Movements and the Fight for Democracy (Polity Press, 2025). He can be reached at awriteratlarge.com. By Charles Euchner Why are we waiting? […]
Suppose that you wake up tomorrow and discover that a sadistic alien has turned you into an economist. You are just getting over your shock at your new predicament (“How will I make friends? Will anyone ever trust me again? At least I’m not a lawyer.”) when Kamala Harris, responding to voter concerns about inflation, […]
Here is the campaign speech Harris delivered in Wisconsin. It’s good: short, to the point, and upbeat. She hits on the right issues: Trump is a criminal, abortion, economic opportunity, Republicans cannot be trusted with Social Security and Medicare, etc. A patriotic framing that emphasizes that the United States is a great country could help […]
It appears that the democratic nomination contest is wrapped up. People are voting with their wallets. Pelosi and Obama at one point appeared to favor some kind of competitive process, but Pelosi has evidently thrown her support behind Harris. Potential rivals are all standing down. Ezra Klein is still making the case for an abbreviated […]
Biden has been slightly behind Trump in the polls for months. Still, until now it was easy enough to discern a plausible path to victory. Democratic voters disappointed with Biden would gradually return to the fold as the choice between Biden and Trump became clear. Memories of inflation would fade. Trump would say outrageous things. […]
Will Biden drop out? Should he? What then? To run or not to run So far Biden seems determined to stay in the presidential race. He and his campaign have worked hard to tamp down any talk that he might step aside. Yet there is a reasonable chance he will step aside, especially if his […]