Suppose the undecided vote breaks for Harris
Yesterday there were reports (political wire) that the undecided vote is breaking for Harris. How big a boost might this give to her election chances?
r = Republican vote share
d = democratic vote share
u = undecided vote share
s = share of undecided vote that breaks for Harris
Putting aside the third party vote, Harris wins if
d + su > r + (1-s)u
or
r – d < su – (1-s)u = u(2s-1)
If s = .65, u = .02 (2% of voters are undecided and they break 2 to 1 for Harris) then the undecided vote would let Harris overcome what would otherwise be a loss of .006 or less in the popular vote (that is, she could overcome what would otherwise be a loss of, say, 49% to 48.4%). If the undecided vote is .04 and it breaks 2 to 1 for Harris, she would overcome a vote share deficit of 1.2% in the decided vote (say, 49% to 47.8%).
My assessment: could flip a close election, but turnout will matter more.
The time based asset valuation self-ordering growth and decay fractal math for the global asset-debt macroeconomic system suggests both a nonlinear 5 November 2024 global equity crash and a nonlinear crash of Trump media stock.
A lot of door to door lobbying in swing states will make a substantial difference. In 1956, Ike won Indiana by a 60 to 40 % margin. In my father’s precinct Stevenson won by an 80 to 20 % margin. My father as the precinct committeeman went door to door.
(What effect would an ongoing 5 November 2024 collapse of Trump media stock have on MAGA voter turn-out?)
TEF:
People wonder at times if they are real. Having someone come to their door and talk about the candidate does help convince them.
Eric organized such an effort in Pennsylvania. I can think of no better person to do so which I judge from his demeanor here at Angry Bear. You are talking to the right person.
It helps if the canvasser is local. Out of state or out of community canvassers often get a poor reception. GOTV is typically more productive than efforts to convince “undecideds”.