Keeping Trump honest

A recurring theme in shut-down commentary is that Democrats cannot trust Trump and congressional republicans to keep any deal they make to fund the government.

This seems like a valid concern.  Some commentators cite this as one of the main reasons for Democrats to refuse to fund the government.  But unless the Democrats have a solution to the problem of getting Trump to keep his promises this logic leads to a permanent shutdown. 

There are some partial fixes available, like limiting recissions.  But the only way forward I can see is to fund the government for (say) two months at a time, and to closely monitor expenditures to make sure Democratic priorities are actually funded.  Perhaps it would be possible to include some kind of cuts to Republican priorities that would be triggered if funding for Democratic priorities falls behind schedule.

I have been persuaded that the most likely outcome of the budget showdown is that the Democrats fold.  There is a good chance that they know this, and that their tough talk is just coalition maintenance.  For some arguments along these lines see here, here, here.  On the other hand, there is some evidence that Republicans will be blamed for a shutdown, as I previously speculated.  One key argument I made:

I believe it is unlikely that Democrats would be held responsible for a shutdown.  The most important reason is that the reputations of the two parties will help the Democrats in the war for public opinion.  Democrats are widely perceived as the party that wants to keep government open, and Republicans are quite rightly seen as the party of shutdowns.  Democrats are also perceived as weak and amenable to compromise, while Republicans are seen as strong and committed to standing by their often unpopular principles.  The perceived weakness of Democrats is a big part of their overall branding problem, but their reputation as compromisers will work in their favor in the event of a shutdown.