As of today, Trump seems well-positioned to win the Republican nomination. The basic dynamic is familiar from 2016 – Trump has a strong base of committed supporters, the opposition will likely be divided, and many Republican primaries are winner-take-all or winner-take-most. Couple this with the bump in support Trump got after his indictment in NY, […]
During last night’s CNN “town hall” fiasco Trump had this to say about the debt ceiling: Former President Donald Trump on Wednesday urged Republican lawmakers to let the United States default on its debt if Democrats don’t agree to spending cuts. “I say to the Republicans out there — congressmen, senators — if they don’t […]
The Biden administration and congressional Democrats have so far refused to negotiate with House Republicans over spending cuts to resolve the looming debt ceiling crisis. This tactic has successfully pressured Republicans into passing a bill with unpopular spending cuts that Democrats will quite rightly use to their advantage in the upcoming election. But now that […]
. . . called The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism, and he was interviewed by Rob Johnson on the Economics & Beyond podcast. Here’s a quote from 50:20 in the pod (my transcription, done before I saw the official transcript at the link): Now a core thesis of my book . . . is that If […]
President Biden has so far insisted he will not negotiate over the debt ceiling. This makes sense on one level. The Republicans are threatening to blow up the economy to get the Democrats to agree to – and share the blame for – unpopular budget cuts. It is easy to see why Democrats want to […]
Ordinarily you would not drive a motorcycle without a headlight down a narrow, winding mountain road at high speed on a dark, rainy night. But you would do this if your child is dying and you need to fetch a doctor immediately. Even sensible people take great risks to avoid an imminent catastrophe. Kevin Hassett, […]
Can ChatGPT run a business? Color me very skeptical. This is a shockingly easy question, but I would not have predicted that ChatGPT would get it right, given its limited ability to do math and think logically. So, I am updating my assessment of ChatGPT (slightly) in a favorable direction. Still, before we get too […]
According to Politico, Trump is against cutting Social Security and Medicare: Former President Donald Trump issued a warning to Republican lawmakers on Friday: Don’t lay a finger on entitlement programs as part of the debt ceiling showdown with the White House. “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or […]
One reason politics is so hard is that our words are often heard by different audiences, and a message that is well-calibrated for one type of listener may work poorly for listeners with different roles, values, or interests. To illustrate: Phillips O’Brien has a piece in the Atlantic with the headline “Time is on Ukraine’s […]
Ukraine is getting much more advanced offensive weapons . . . This seems to mark a major shift, a commitment to helping Ukraine go on offense and win. Open questions . . . How far will Ukraine’s partners go? Infantry fighting vehicles today, maybe tanks, ATACMs, planes, etc. tomorrow? How big a threat is the […]