The Iran debacle

This is no run of the mill TACO. This is complete US strategic failure.

Read the whole thing.  The Iranian regime may end up with a stronger hold on power, unfettered access to enriched uranium, and massive revenue from tolls on oil tankers.  

I have no expertise in foreign policy, but it’s not entirely clear to me that there were any better options, other than not starting this insane war to begin with.  The strategic failure has been baked in the cake since the opening attacks failed to topple the Iranian regime, which was never likely to happen.

I had no idea what Trump was going to do at 8:00 p.m. yesterday.  Escalation was certainly possible, but this is not a surprise.  Trump decided to prioritize his domestic political needs.  Although Trump and the Republicans are still likely to get shellacked in the mid-terms, Trump’s decision to tuck his tail between his legs and declare victory will buy some time for oil prices to normalize and memories of the war to fade, assuming the cease fire holds.  

It is possible that Trump’s shamelessness meant that declaring victory was an option for him that would not have been available to other presidents.  Perhaps his willingness to lie and his belief that he can sell anything to anyone will save us from an even worse outcome, though of course he bears ultimate responsibility for this fiasco for recklessly going to war.