Democrats have budget leverage. They need to press their advantage.
On October 1, 2025, the first day of the most recent government shutdown, Donald Trump’s net disapproval was 12 points. By the time the shutdown ended 6 weeks later, his net disapproval had risen to 16 points.
Democrats should keep this in mind as the government funding wars heat up again. The Dems do not control the government, but they are in the driver’s seat. The public will blame Trump and the Republicans for any shut down, partly because they control the government, and partly because the Democrats are viewed – correctly – as the party of compromise while the Republicans are seen – again correctly – as hostile to government.
So, what should Democrats prioritize in the upcoming negotiations? My priorities remain what they were earlier in the year. Democrats should put ICE on a short leash, both to protect innocent people from arrest and deportation, and to safeguard the 2026 mid-term elections. They should funnel money directly to universities and other research institutions, bypassing the executive branch. I would like to see them counter the Trump administration’s disastrous destruction of our alliances and rein in Trump’s chip sales to China. This is difficult to do, but surely they can find something to staunch the bleeding.
What I would not do is insist on reversing Medicaid cuts and reinstating the expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies. If Republicans oppose funding health care, the Democratic position should be that the Republicans control the government, and the Republicans can explain their position to the American people in the run up to the mid-term elections. I hate the thought of sick people going bankrupt or not getting needed care, but there are too many people who simply lack the ability to evaluate candidates and parties on the basis of their policy platforms in a forward-looking manner. These voters are reactive, not proactive. They can be persuaded to oppose Trump and the Republican party only if things get noticeably worse for them or the country as a whole. I wish this were otherwise, but here we are. Elections really do have consequences.
I still believe, as I argued previously, that the Democrats should only extend funding for 1 or 2 months at a time, to keep the Trump administration and the Republican congress from reneging on budget deals, refusing to spend appropriated funds, etc.
In thinking about these issues, it is critical to keep in mind that although Trump appears to be losing his grip on elected Republicans and his support among voters, a Democratic victory in 2026 is by no means a sure thing. The Republican gerrymandering project may get a big boost from the supreme court. The court is also likely to rule against Trump in the tariff case, which may give the economy a shot in the arm and reduce consumer prices at the same time. Finally, today’s rosy report on third-quarter GDP is an important reminder that the United States economy has often surprised observers on the upside, navigating choppy waters with little difficulty.
Democrats have leverage. They need to press every advantage. Too much is at stake to indulge in wishful thinking.
Could you summarize how you see Democrats exerting leverage on this objectives? As it got left in November, Republicans plus enough Democrats to end debate passed a CR without these elements you cite here as priorities. I go back to some of my original ideas months ago that any kind of deals here are more critical in the House than the Senate. The pressures you mention do not work as well on Senators. There are no impending elections to think continuing a shutdown is a good electoral tactic unless you think shutting down through next November is possible. Crack the Republicans in the House and the Senate will mostly go along with it. Let the House pass the appropriations or CR and Senate Republicans will just wait it out again if Democrats want to filibuster. My two major themes last fall were that a trade of policy for a few cloture votes wasn’t going to happen and that a big compromise to get enhanced subsidies likely would need a large and fundamentally difficult to swallow offer from Democrats. I don’t see how substituting ICE reforms or direct university funding is likely to change things much. Make a deal in the House and say yes to something or things pretty hard to agree with. Or vote for Democratic priorities without a filibuster.
See reply below.
I’m not sure I follow your analysis, but . . .
Leverage comes from a combination of public opinion and party cohesion. Usually efforts to extract concessions fail because the public turns against the shutdown and the majority party can pick off some minority votes. In this case, I don’t think public opinion will turn against the Democrats, for reasons given above. That may help the Democrats hold together and demand some concessions. What they ask for is up to them; I would not demand health care spending for the reasons give above. The resolution of the last shutdown was perfect for them politically – they put a spot light on health care costs, and the subsidies expired.
Will Democrats be able to win concessions on some of their priorities? It’s a big lift, but the main thing they have going for them is public opinion, which I hope will let them stick together and resist folding. Most commentators thought they would lose the public opinion battle, but (as I predicted) the blame seemed to flow to the Republicans. My point is they should factor this into their thinking and press their advantage.
“By the time the shutdown ended 6 weeks later, his net disapproval had risen to 16 points.”
Where?
RealClear Politics has never gone above -13.1%
Nate Silver at -14%
@dave,
Nate Silver: “As of today [12/22], his net approval rating in our average is -12.2. That number isn’t too far off from his second term low of -15.0.”
How popular is Donald Trump?