If the Iran deal is so great, why not release it?
Presumably the deal is embarrassing to either Iran or the Trump administration (or possibly to both parties). My guess is the embarrassment is on Trump. He gets nothing except the end of the global oil shortage he caused. The Iranians will get a large financial benefit in one form or another – a benefit that will allow them to begin rebuilding economically and militarily, and that will strengthen the regime politically. My poorly informed guess is that the financial benefit to the Iranians will accrue rapidly and strengthen their negotiating power, while Trump’s bargaining position will remain weak at least through the election, but probably longer. I will be surprised if the Iranian nuclear program ends up better controlled than under the JCPOA. Way to go, Donald!
Iran has agreed to a 60-day moratorium on fees for passing the strait. After that? And to avoid the appearance of a payoff, frozen assets will be returned indirectly through the UAE.
The wild card is Israel. Netanyahu could scotch the deal by continuing attacks in Lebanon. Since the Israelis likely have compromat on Trump gained by spying on the US and Russia, they know Trump is emasculated.
The financial benefit to Iran is not just release of frozen assets or charges on ships passing through the strait or reconstruction payments from gulf states. Iran will be able to sell its oil. That will enable the country to get back on its feet financially. We will see what was agreed to, but it’s hard to see any kind of win for the U.S. or Trump.
The key dynamic since March has been that Trump’s negotiators have been able to negotiate for him a kind of Iran War mulligan, locking in his failure. But usually once the details come out and Trump has to face real discussion of his defeat he sabotages it or gets cold feet. So there’s a real chance that happens again. But again, even by the White House’s account — assuming there’s no cash payment component — this is the U.S. agreeing to end the war in exchange for nothing but going back to the way things were before Trump started the war. He achieves none of his objectives and managed to strengthen Iran in important and durable ways. It’s a total failure by any definition.
~Josh Marshall
Joel:
I was reading (surprise) that Iran and Oman will have fees for passage through the straits. Maybe they are new? However, at $2 million per ship, it will be costly for foreign vessels.
My gut is that whatever the deal might turn out to be, Hezbullah will prove to be the rock it founders on. Iran’s proxies can get covered by the agreed deal but Iran will need to commit to their acceptable behavior. But the single biggest reason for Hezbullah’s existence is to attack “the Zionist entity”. The “resistance” can be in the deal but they need to give up “resisting”. I think the contradictions will prove to be too much for the deal.
Eric:
Submit, submit . . . we won’t kill too many of you.
Because this is all a big pump and dump. Some one is making bank
I am sorry Dr Joel, but Lebanon is no the rock that founders it
This is Israel’s war, they can’t fight it without us. Won’t end it …