“Trump’s war in Iran has wiped out 1.5 years of wage growth,” Economic Policy Institute The Trump administration’s decision to start a war with Iran has imposed disastrous costs (both economic and humanitarian) around the world. The U.S. has been insulated from these costs more so than most other countries. Yet, even here the costs […]
The question I get most often when speaking about Watergate is a version of “what would happen if Watergate happened today with Fox News?” And my answer is always very simple: Nixon would have survived. Not because he didn’t deserve to be forced from office, or because there was a Deep State campaign against him, […]
Trump will not be president forever. And when he goes, Democrats will face a defining choice: exploit the executive machinery he has exposed, or dismantle it. The temptation to exploit it will be enormous—and yielding to that temptation would be a historic mistake. If post-Trump America is to be a post-authoritarian one, it will have […]
This commentary shows several supporting links to it. Not a mistake, just different data. A look at Immigration to the United States. I have no problem saying much of the reasoning for a decline is the result of a presidential policy of forced deportation of immigrants. I am going to guess the people leaving consist […]
Struggling with complicated truths about what has made our ease possible is not a Trumpist thing. To some degree, it has often not been an American thing. As Kevin Levin, who writes the newsletter Civil War Memory, put it this week, “For generations, the history of slavery and emancipation has been minimized, distorted, or simply […]
Elite opinion so far seems to be running against the deal, but the public may be won over. If the deal holds up, gas prices will come down. In addition, the economy will strengthen and the risk of recession will go down. This is why I thought Trump might just walk away from the war […]
Presumably the deal is embarrassing to either Iran or the Trump administration (or possibly to both parties). My guess is the embarrassment is on Trump. He gets nothing except the end of the global oil shortage he caused. The Iranians will get a large financial benefit in one form or another – a benefit that […]
– by New Deal democrat Late last year I noticed that the regional Fed manufacturing indicators were improving – despite the “Liberation Day” tariffs and the general chaos coming out of Washington. It appeared that manufacturers had found a modus vivendi and had adapted to the new environment. That subsequently showed up in a number of […]
People wonder if the big three will stay in the United States. They will be around for another ten years doing the assembly part and buying components and assemblies (wire harnesses, etc.) from overseas. And yes there is cost to doing it this way. Once on the dock, they own it. Six weeks on the […]
I did not get a chance to post this commentary about the last day for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who stepped down as the Chair. Just to be clear, he was succeeded by Kevin Warsh. Powell did break precedent by remaining on the Fed’s governing board as a governor. He will serve out the […]