Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Book Review: Death in the Haymarket

I was born into an America where the eight-hour workday was widely observed. But what was for me just another fact of life was a hard-won right of the labor movement that cost hundreds of lives. “Death in the Haymarket: A Story of Chicago, the First Labor Movement and the Bombing that Divided Gilded Age […]

A historical look at labor force participation surges, real GDP, and unemployment

 – by New Deal democrat In my discussion yesterday of why the Sahm Rule might be giving a false signal at present, I noted that “in addition to the 1980-81 double-dip period, significantly the only other time [a big increase in new entrants into the labor force leading up to a recession] even came close […]

Further on why the big increase in immigration has been distorting the signal from the ‘Sahm Rule’

 – by New Deal democrat AB: What does the Sahm rule signify? If the three-month moving average of the jobless rate rises by at least a half-percentage point from its low during the previous 12 months, then a recession has started. NDd; In my summation of Friday’s employment report, I wrote that “[t]here will probably […]

Post-pandemic Latin American immigration and the unemployment rate

Post-pandemic Latin American immigration and the unemployment rate (and it’s implications for the economy)  – by New Deal democrat One week ago, in analyzing the jobs report, I noted the continuing severe disconnect between the Establishment Survey, which continues to show strong growth, and the Household Survey, which has been downright recessionary. I expanded on […]

What would adjusting the Household jobs Survey for immigration driven population growth do?

 – by New Deal democrat This is a continuation of my post from yesterday discussing the large divergences between the Household and Establishment jobs surveys. A big current issue with the Household Survey is whether, by relying on Census estimates, it has substantially underestimated population growth, and in particular immigration-driven growth, in the past two […]

Immigration or invasion?

Russ Vought is a Trump loyalist who believes we live in a “post-Constitutional” nation: ““We are living in a post-Constitutional time,” Vought wrote in a seminal 2022 essay, which argued that the left has corrupted the nation’s laws and institutions. Last week, after a jury convicted Trump of falsifying business records, Vought tweeted: “Do not […]

In-Box Topics Over the Last Few Weeks

In-Box Topics as discovered in my In-Box and accumulate every week. I can’t post them all even though I read or scan them. Maybe you will enjoy them? Healthcare Politics Engaging Antiracist And Decolonial Praxis To Advance Equity In Oregon Public Health Surveillance Practices, Health Affairs, This has consequences for how communities of color are […]

Biden’s asylum shut-down

The Biden Administration executive order setting a numerical threshold to shut down asylum is a performative exercise in futility. It is also cruel. “This “asylum shutdown” will deny, in most cases, the right to seek asylum for migrants apprehended on the U.S. side of the border with Mexico. It goes into effect at 12:01 AM […]

Demographic Outlook 2024 to 2054 Part II: Population Used by CBO to Project the Labor Force

I have been shrinking this total report through editing so as to make it easier to read in a shorter amount of time. It is also split into three parts to minimize the size of the read also. To me, it is pretty interesting as there have been discussion about how the CBO and other […]

US Immigration: How many people are coming to the US and where are they coming from?​

I chose three graphs off of the USA Facts Org. site to make points of where are immigrants coming from, the makeup of them, how the border apprehends them, and the numbers turned away or apprehended. There is a much longer, well detailed, and interesting version of this commentary at USA Facts Org. ~~~~~~~~ 2024 […]