This is not going to blow over. It’s time for Biden to step aside.
Biden has been slightly behind Trump in the polls for months. Still, until now it was easy enough to discern a plausible path to victory. Democratic voters disappointed with Biden would gradually return to the fold as the choice between Biden and Trump became clear. Memories of inflation would fade. Trump would say outrageous things. A few decent breaks and Biden could pull it out.
The debate has changed the math. Biden has been badly hurt by his debate performance. A vigorous response by the President over the past week might have allayed voter concerns about his fitness for office. As a result, the fact that he has avoided situations that would require verbal dexterity is strong evidence that he is unable to talk publicly without a teleprompter. The press will cover this relentlessly. Even low-information voters will get the message. The focus on Biden will keep attention from shifting to Trump’s unfitness for office, and it seems clear that Biden will not be able to prosecute a vigorous case against Trump.
Biden could still turn this around, and it is always possible that a new candidate would stumble, but at this point the risk of changing horses mid-stream seems worth taking. The critical questions are how to get Biden to step aside, and how to orchestrate the selection of a new nominee in a way that excites Democrats and draws in some Republicans and Trump-curious voters.
Commentators have endorsed two possible paths forward if Biden steps aside. First, Biden could endorse Harris, or even resign now and let her take over as President. Second, there could be some kind of compressed primary process culminating with the convention.
The case for going with Harris can be summarized as follows: 1) Biden should step down now because he is not competent to be president; as the incumbent Harris would grow in stature and be difficult to push aside. 2) Harris has the most name recognition of plausible candidates. 3) Failure to get behind Harris would alienate blacks and women, key democratic constituencies. 4) Harris would have access to campaign funds Biden has already raised, but other candidates would not. Of course, these advantages are uncertain, and Harris has weaknesses as well.
An open process with party control
Rather than rehash familiar points, I think it is useful to think about what a more open, competitive process would look like. If an open process would divide Democrats and end up delivering a wounded candidate, the case for Harris is strengthened, and vice-versa.
The key to a successful open process is for party leaders to exert control over participation and debate structure.
Only well-qualified candidates should be allowed to debate. This means current or former office holders, not rich business people, kooks, and publicity hounds. Party leaders need to channel Nancy Reagan “just say no” to Mariane Williamson, RFK, and Andrew Wang and their many doppelgangers. Weak parties that allow crank candidates onto the debate stage is one of the remediable flaws in our current electoral system. Debates should be invitation-only.
The debates leading up to the convention should be structured to contribute to the process of selling the country on a relatively unknown Democrat and rejecting Trumpism. This means concentrating on three tasks. Moderators should ask candidates to explain why they think America is a great country, why they are qualified to lead, and why they believe Trump is unfit to be President. That’s it. Candidates should model how they would take on Trump – with optimism about America and the incisive criticism of Trump that Biden has not been able to provide. With a bit of luck, the debates can put a positive spotlight on the Democrats and give Trump a well-earned prime-time thrashing for a few weeks.
Unlike in a normal year, there will not be much time to tack to the center following the “primary”. An all-out bidding war for the progressive vote would be damaging in the general election. Democratic voters understand this, which is why they coalesced around Biden in 2020. Presumably Biden’s delegates understand this as well. This will help to discipline the process.
I have been critical of Harris in the past (here), but I am quite open to the possibility that she is the best candidate. I am genuinely agnostic on how well she will do under an open process. Harris would be the favorite, but if she faltered, I think Democratic voters would enthusiastically support an alternative. Everyone agrees that winning is critical. Just like Biden himself, Harris deserves a fair shot, not a coronation. James Clyburn, the respected black congressman who endorsed Biden in the 2020 South Carolina primary seems to be moving in this direction. He initially seemed to throw his support to Harris as Biden’s natural successor, but more recently may have signaled openness to a more competitive process (his comments are ambiguous but suggestive).
It seems to me that Biden should step down, and that if he does so an open process with party control should be on the table.
I don’t think his age and how it effects his verbal dexterity is as big a problem as some are making it out to be. Firstly, we’ve all known about this problem long before the debate. Why some are only seeing it now can only be blamed on the media burying past video of him exhibiting the same behavior we saw during the debates many times in the past. Yes, his polling numbers took a hit after the debate, but they were already lackluster to begin with. The bigger headwinds he faces is not just him but the democrat party as a whole. The extreme progressive wing of their platform is rejected by more Americans than they care to admit. There are also major economic factors that are weighing heavily on the average American such as the meteoric rise in the cost of living. Another one being the problems at the southern border and lastly geopolitical tensions have risen drastically with 2 major conflicts that materialized under his watch. This is not due to Joe Biden or his cognitive decline. These are problems that occurred while Democrats have been in power. Whether or not they caused some or all of these issues is up for debate. Nonetheless they occurred while a Democrat was in the White House and to date, many Americans do not believe they were fixed. Swapping out Joe Biden will only give a new face to old unsolved problems.
I think you should wait a bit and see how Biden’s recovery effort goes. Tonight for example you’ll get to see his interview with Sephanopoulos. During all this time you say Biden’s. deterioration has been apparent, he has accomplished quite a bit and most Democrats consider him to have a good record. You’ve been reading the New York Times too much.
I should add that the polls, at least since 2016, have not been very useful for predictions. The difficulties with getting representative results since the advent of ubiquitous cell phones have been thoroughly investigated and analyzed. They aren’t irrelevant but they are also not hugely important.
JackD
thank you. you said it nicer than i would have.
Kramer has noting reaonable to offer in place of seeing if Biden can turn this around. Well, he has “ideas,” but on due dilligence examination they turn out to be late in the game hail Mary passes…while there is enough time on the clock to see how well less chancy plays will do.
I’ve seen this up close. It’s a sucker’s bet really. What are you going to do if he gets a couple of somewhat decent plays off this month? It has to be nothing but good plays right through November and he does not have it in him. Not trashing the guy, just his condition is almost certainly quite debilitating. In a very real sense, he deserves not to have to run, or even keep going at his job right now.
Democrats really need to stop taking advice from Republicans …
Maybe you’re right. But there is one piece of advice all democrats should take from a republican and it’s an objective piece of advice. Trump will win the 2024 election. There’s nothing else they can throw at him to sway voters. All the indictments have come and gone, all the Russian collusion scandals, the impeachments and insurrections have all but bounced off him. This should be self-reflection time for the democrats. Looking inwards to oneself and figure out what is wrong with them that after all this, people still choose a guy like Trump over them. Get that answer and you have the answer to all your problems. I do know this, sitting there constantly blaming it on everyone else being stupid, racist, dumb, nazis is not working for you guys. At some point, maybe, just maybe you have to start thinking it’s you. Ignore this advice at your own peril. You’ll openly resist this advice but deep down you know I’m right as well as deep down you know as the dog days of summer approach and days turn into weeks and into months and we approach November, the likelihood of Trump taking back the White House gets more and more possible.
matt
i don’t know what makes you so sure, unless it’s dunning-krueger. i agree that the dems have not solved all the problems we wuld like to have solved, and at least some of that they can’t blame on Republicans.
But History shows that when a demagogue comes along telling the people that their pain is not their own fault, and if they just follow him he will beat “the other” with brute force, and let them join his mobs and enjoy the fun, they will follow him whatever the othr guy does.
i have been telling my friends here for years they….not the democrat politicians…are making a big mistake calling the other side names and knocking down their statues. of course they don’t listen to me, and now it is probably too late….not that that is the only reason….but now is not the time to cut and run. there are a lot of people still on our side…and that means on Joe Biden’s side…not some hastily drafted drafted newcomer.
i think they would be wise to start breaking in a relief pitcher if it turns out Joe can’t show strength for the next few months. but sabotaging him now is craven.
Democrats need to stop letting Republicans control the narrative
Contrary to the troll’s claims, forcing Joe out is a Republican gig, leading the weak-minded around by the nose. If there are democrats calling for Joe to step aside they’re not democrats ~ they’re rats in sheeps’ clothing
I spent yesterday afternoon cleaning the grease out of my guns …
True, but try to figure out what it is Republicans want here. All but a few knuckleheads want Biden to stay right where he is.
I am one of those knuckleheads. so it seems are the Democrat governors and party leaders.
[unless you mean a few Republican knuckleheads: in that case both the Magahats and their leaers don’t really care. They think they win either way. I think they be right, but unlike Democrat knucleheads I think it is better that we fight…we can fight as men or run away as rabbits…The very very Left among us already hate Biden because..he’s a warmonger [ukraine], a genocidist [palestine], and old…that last bit they got from the Republicans telling them and old people were their enemy.]
what the Republicans want is a thousand year reich. and the Magahats just want someone to tell them they are smart and solve their problems for them and let them rove in gangs and beat up libs that they can catch alone. or after they figure out that libs won’t fight, just beat them up in front of each other.
“Republicans want a thousand-year Reich”? Allow me to enlighten you a bit. The average republican I know is not interested in a Hitler incarnate.
We’re interested in securing the southern border, stemming illegal migration, tough on crime legislation, trade deals that favor the American worker instead of multi-national conglomerates, smaller government, free speech, gun rights, religious freedom and cheap energy.
Now one can argue Trump is not capable of delivering any of those. That he’s a clown and a grifter. Nonetheless the choice in elections as in life often comes down to the lesser of two evils and whose policies resonate the closest to your own interests and can bring you as close as possible to where you want to be and for republicans the choice is simple. And by the way, your “third Riech” claim is EXACTLY why a guy like Trump, a twice impeached, accused Russian spy, insurrectionist and convicted felon is not only remotely competitive against the Democrat candidate but actually beating him.
With each and every accusation and wild claim demonizing republican voters you people unwittingly pump massive doses of energy into Trumps campaign. It seems sometimes you guys just can’t get out of your own way and learned nothing from the 2016 election.
matt
no doubt. but I am afraid your list of reasons for calling for a thousand year Reich is exactly what I am talking about. you and all the people like you who don’t understand anything more complicated than a punch in the face are easily led by a “strong man” who promises you the right to do just that to the people you don’t like. the people who he tells you are to blame for your failure to get everything you want.
matt
by the way, i did not claim a “third reich” i said a “thousand year reich”. the very rich want to run things their way, and they want to do it forever, and they don’t care if what works for them is appealing to people’s ignorance and preference for easy solutions like using force against those they are told are the reason for whatever injuries they imagine they have suffered.
I like Clyburn’s idea (was covered on radio this AM) which seems to be a mini primary the next six weeks and let the “transparent process” decide the candidate. It should include at least two debates on live TV.
If the risk/uncertainty analysis shows Trump the maximum regret, the primaries need to decide who and what message is best chance to beat Trump.
yep, run after the next sexy idea that comes along.
I want to address two issues around Kamala Harris.
The first is the idea that Democratic voters of color would stay home if the process chose someone besides Harris. I don’t think that is true at all. Harris had very little support when she ran for President in 2020, including voters of color. In 2016 many African American voters continued to support Hillary Clinton until Obama looked like a winner. The fact that Jim Clyburn is talking about a mini primary is a big deal.
Second is this notion that all the current campaign funds would only go to Harris. I think there would be a tremendous outcry from donors about that idea. Democrats up and down the spectrum want us to field the most electorally viable candidate possible. Handicapping ourselves by saying the money collected thus far belongs to Biden or Harris is stupid.
Finally, if a good candidate emerges over the next five weeks, there will be an outpouring of financial resources. Miriam Adelson has already pledged a $100 million on the Republican side. I can easily see a Democratic superdonor do the same. I think millions of rank and file Democrats will pitch in come August 21st.
The Democrats are not handicapping themselves re the campaign funds. It’s the law that they can’t be given to another candidate other than a very small amount.
Imagine M. Obama taking one for America and throwing herself into the fray as a candidate. With the selection of a good running mate and articulated more restrictive border policy, not only would she trounce her elephant opponent, she would energize voters, likely capturing many close House and Senate seats and riveting a bicameral majority needed to address the SC’s new self-given defacto executive powers. The Obamas have done many favors for the Bidens in the past. Providing the accumulated war treasure chest to M.O., after a reasonable selection process, would be something agreeable to most party members.
For the reason outlined above, the transfer of funds can’t happen.
@Jack,
Thanks for calling this out with TEF and Jim. This isn’t fantasy football.
joel
exactly.
Michelle Obama? Really? That’s your solution? What exactly makes Michelle Obama more qualified than Gavin Newsom or Kamal Harris? What executive experience has she ever had? This is your pick for the leader of the United States of America? I think this is absolutely insane. As a republican I’d rather have Rosie Odonnel.
The CNN poll a few days ago had M.O. 11 points, 50 to 39 ahead of #45. She lived with a president for 8 years and her current husband could be on hand to provide expert advice. She could rapidly surround herself with talent. Likewise, her current 11 point spread over #45 would likely very quickly raise a couple of billion in political donations. Should exculpatory neurological cognitive testing et. al. tests be done but confirm dementia in #46, K. Harris should take over immediately. Most Americans really detest cover-ups regardless of party affiliation.
My view is that getting the President to get completely off the stage via resignation would be incrementally so much better than just not accepting the nomination that any small drawbacks of Harris over “ Democrat X” get lost in the shuffle. President Harris vs. former President Trump and Joe on the beach in Delaware. Can you imagine if Joe drops the nomination but sticks around at the same time Harris loses the nomination? There has to be some kind of message about the quality of the Democratic Party should that be the situation end of August. An acquaintance observed that perhaps no Democrat that carried the “he’s sharper than ever” water the last 3 or 4 months should be considered for the nomination as too unreliable.
Eric
I could look at your analysis and convince myself that you are not sharper than ever. Instead of promoting your first impression into the eternal truth, try having a little stability and stay the fight at least long enough to see what comes up.
As Washington pointed out “militias” are worthless in combat. they run away at the first setback. If Grant had run away after the first day of Shilo, we would all be speaking Southern today. But you couldn’t afford a slave.
Southernors consider Jackson a hero because stood like a stone wall at first Manasses. and the few Northernors who know anything about the Civil war admire George Thomas because he was the Rock of Chikamauga. people admire that. i have heard people say Democrats have no spine. never really thought about it until now.
I’m sorry, but I had the very distinct impression here (and elsewhere) that the fight is against Trump and not between elements of the Democratic Party. My opinion only: keeping Biden is moving away from the fundamental fight. This is why I feel pretty confident Republicans want the President to hang tough and prevail. And equally, I feel comfortable saying Democrats want Trump on that ballot. A Glen Youngkins (sp?) Presidency would follow similar policies, nominate similar judges, etc, and the investment in painting Trump as a great threat goes out the window. In the areas that the 2 parties actually differ, the variation in how the likeliest nominees in each party would govern is small. Biden, Newsome, Whitmer….for a Republican they are interchangeable except one now at least appears easier to defeat. Pretty much similar the other way.
Eric
I am sorry too. But the hysteria about Biden’s age is part of the campaign to destroy democracy in favor of absolute rule by the rich. Joining that hysteria makes it less likely Biden can win, and right now he is the only viable choice we have.
As for policy…you are right: not a dimes worth of difference between them. But it’s not the “policy” that is at stake; it’s the means of arriving at policy. A lawless and immoral President will soon deliver you to policies you don’t expect and won’t like.
unless you are one of the brownshirts who like violence for its own sake.
A fellow volunteer who was briefly a reporter in the early 1990s had this observation: he was surprised that the NYT, Politico, LAT, etc., etc. all seemed to miss the chance to repurpose that Thanksgiving classic and write stories about how to talk to your crazy Biden-loving relatives at the 4th of July picnics.
I think it would be a big mistake to have Kamala Harris be the Democrat nominee for president. An observer listening to Ms. Harris’s televised comments over the last 3 1/2 years would realize she is completely unprepared & incapable to perform the duties of president. The woman was selected only because of identity politics. Biden decided he needed his VP to be a woman of color & he found her. Unfortunately he didn’t realize she had no other qualifications or abilities to do the job.
Probably 95% of her TV appearances include non-sensical statements accompanied with outbursts of laughter at the most inopportune moments. The average American viewer wonders “how was this person qualified to be a VP of the United States?”.
Why not let President Biden do what he wants? He’s earned it. The post-debate pearl clutching is hurting more than the debate itself.
little john
exactly. at least for now.
i think we need to plan a backup in case Biden can’t convince the voters he is strong enough for the job. I don’t know what that plan needs to be. But piling on the current hysteria is making our chances much worse.