Europe, Ukraine, and Iran; and Trump’s impaired emotional/cognitive relationship to negative consequences

This is a speculative post.  I don’t have any expertise in foreign policy.  I just want to clarify my own thinking, and posting is a way to force myself to do this.  So caveat lector, and let’s see what you all have to add.

European leaders seem increasingly willing to criticize Trump.  Here is Bloomberg:

The US is being “humiliated” by Iranian leaders as President Donald Trump struggles to negotiate an end to the war, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in comments that risk driving a further wedge in transatlantic relations.

In unusually candid terms, the German leader said he didn’t see “what strategic exit the Americans are now choosing,” adding that Tehran’s negotiators are proceeding “very skilfully — or indeed very skilfully not negotiating.”

The result is that an “entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, particularly by these so-called Revolutionary Guards,” Merz told a group of students at a secondary school in western Germany on Monday.

The comments underscore several European leaders’ reassessment of their relations with Trump. A tendency to smooth ties by currying favor has given way to a more sober perspective of a US president who has repeatedly called into question NATO, bolstered European far-right forces and threatened to seize Greenland, a territory of Denmark.

What explains this shift?  I can think of a few reasons.

• Ukrainian strength on the battlefield makes the northern European states feel less dependent on NATO.  (Southern states like Spain have always felt less threatened by Russia and were more willing to buck Trump on Iran.)
• The fall of Orban has allowed the EU to bolster Ukraine economically, further reducing dependence on the United States.
• American unreliability has become so obvious (i.e., on weapons deliveries, and even on the NATO alliance itself) that there is no point in trying to placate Trump.
• Trump is highly unpopular in Europe, giving leaders a domestic political reason to separate from Trump.  The war with Iran is only going to accentuate this, given the economic hardship the war is causing.

How will the war unfold from here?

When Trump first announced an end to the war I thought he meant it, in the sense that I thought there was a real chance he was really going to declare victory and go home.  This would leave the Iranians 1) in charge of the strait of Hormuz (the tolls they seem prepared to charge would raise large amounts of revenue for the regime but would not noticeably affect the price of gas) and 2) with the potential to restart a nuclear program.  The Iranian nuclear program would potentially be embarrassing to Trump, but there was a reasonable possibility that the Iranians would not have the capacity/motivation to restart it on a timeframe that would be politically damaging to Trump.  Then Trump imposed a blockade on the strait, which will put financial pressure on the regime and (if it continues) will force the Iranians to reduce their oil production in ways that are difficult to reverse.  He did this apparently at least in part because he was not willing to leave the Iranians in a position where they could restart their nuclear program (whether he was worried about this as a foreign policy problem or because it made him look bad in comparison to Obama is unclear, both factors may have been operative).  Whether he will be willing to escalate beyond blockading the strait is unclear to me, but he doesn’t have many great options.  The strait has a long shoreline from which the Iranians can attack shipping, and economic and political pressures to open the strait will grow on a daily basis.

Finally, how did Trump talk himself into this mess, which foreign policy professionals within the government would surely have told him and his advisors was at least a serious risk?  Part of the explanation is surely that Trump lacks the capacity for strategic thinking.  But I think there is more going on.  Trump has rarely faced negative consequences for his own foolish decisions.  In business he was able to take foolish risks, and then declare bankruptcy to get a fresh start.  Now his relentless scamming is finally paying off for him and his family.  He has avoided negative legal consequences throughout his career – for racial discrimination, sharp sales practices, mismanagement and fraud, sexual assault, and most recently for mishandling classified documents and encouraging his supporters to storm Congress and prevent the transfer of power.  And he has the con man’s belief in his ability to talk people into anything – Trump steaks, Trump airline, lowering the price level, achieving peace in Ukraine on day one. 

All of this means that throughout his life he has never had to worry about negative consequences.  Why start now?