The Callais decision and the coming election

The Supreme Court’s recent decision to gut the Voting Rights Act is a disgrace. I will return to the decision and how Democrats should confront the court in future posts. Here I want to make one point I haven’t seen discussed elsewhere.

By allowing partisan gerrymandering and encouraging states to redraw majority-minority districts, the court has made the 2026 contest for control of the House significantly closer. The tighter the race is expected to be, the stronger the incentive for the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress to engage in illegal or undemocratic tactics to win the election (ICE at the polls, etc.). If the election is likely to result in a large and clear victory for Democrats, stealing the election will require ham-handed authoritarian tactics that voters and the courts will likely reject. But if the election is likely to be close, then less extreme tactics may be able to swing the results. By making the election closer, the court gives Trump and Republicans more reason to break laws and violate norms to win.

Fortunately the Democrats are still favored in November. There is a good chance they will overcome whatever anti-democratic tactics the Trump administration deploys. But voters should remember the reckless partisanship of this court when they eventually regain control of the government.

For another way that Callais may encourage partisan Republican efforts to undermine the election see this piece by Andy Craig.