Impeach Trump?
New polling from Strength in Numbers shows the public supports impeachment, 55% in favor to 37% opposed. This supports the prediction from the betting market Kalshi that currently gives Trump a 68% chance of impeachment before the end of his term. (Note that removal by the Senate is much less likely than impeachment by the House, but still not completely out of the picture given Trump’s declining popularity and arguably deteriorating mental state.)
The question I want to focus on here is “why”. What are the reasons for impeaching (and if possible removing) Trump from office?
The most obvious reason to remove Trump from office is that he is a serious threat to the liberty, health, prosperity, and safety of Americans and indeed of people around the world. It has been clear since the midterms last November that Trump was wearing out his welcome with voters and that he was likely to suffer a significant defeat in the upcoming congressional election. Unfortunately, as his grip on power becomes more tenuous, the risk that he will do something reckless increases.
(The risk that Trump will do something harmful could reflect rational behavior on his part: taking large risks can be a rational strategy when one is losing. However, this kind of risk-taking is arguably not a smart strategy for Trump right now. Trump’s unpopularity is largely self-inflicted, and his best strategy right now would arguably be to declare victory on crime, immigration, the war on DEI and universities, and even Iran, etc., to rescind his tariffs, to step out of the limelight, and to bank on the strength of the economy and the short memories of voters to keep the coming election as close as possible. His unwillingness to do this is, I suspect, a reflection of his arrogant, narcissistic stupidity, not any strategic brilliance. But as the election gets closer, stepping out of the limelight becomes less viable, and rolling the dice may, unfortunately, become more attractive to Trump.)
So one reason to impeach and remove Trump is to stop him from doing even more damage to the United States, our allies, and innocent people all over. This is hardly surprising. But there is a second reason that is less obvious and may be even more important: to restore the credibility of the United States in international affairs.
The pre-Trump world order was certainly imperfect, but by destroying the credibility of American commitments Trump will make it much more difficult for us to benefit through treaties, formal alliances, and informal international cooperation. These modes of cooperation all hinge on the perception that the United States is willing to abide by its commitments. Trump has shown that this is not a safe bet.
Unfortunately, this horse cannot be put back in the barn. It is now a well-known fact about the United States that we are capable of electing a stupid, corrupt, bullying nationalist with no sense of obligation to honor past commitments. Any country negotiating with the United States in the future will know that we may be one election away from putting another Trump in the White House.
A bipartisan vote removing Trump from office is the single most important step we can take to salvage our international reputation. Impeachment and removal is no panacea, but it will at least suggest that our collective judgment is not as bad as it currently seems to be, and it will create an incentive for future Trumps to be more cautious when exercising the great discretionary powers of the president in foreign affairs.
“Note that removal by the Senate is much less likely than impeachment by the House, but still not completely out of the picture . . .”
In the sense that porcine aviation isn’t completely out of the picture, yes.
Why I believe removal is possible – not likely, but possible: There is a reasonable chance the Democrats will take the Senate. Combine that with Trump’s low and falling poll numbers and (perhaps) more erratic (and scary) behavior on Trump’s part, and remember that he will (probably) be a lame duck, and I think we could see some Republican defections. Enough to remove? Probably not, but conceivable.
@Eric,
Yes. Co-terminus with the first verified report of porcine aviation.
Eric, Agree! See my post at:
One Path Left to Impeachment, Angry Bear
As I said to Joel, it’s all a matter of how much crazy the American public is willing to take and whether than can wait until another election.
Eric:
The reasons Trump did win the presidency.
3 million people did not vote in the 2024 Election as compared to 2020. Also, millions voted for lesser candidates such as Robert Kennedy, The numbers are there. I have posted on such and the numbers can be found at Dave Leip’s site.
I keep telling people their focus is on the wrong thing: a subduction event a hundred miles off the coast doesn’t generate a tidal wave here. It generates a tidal wave in Japan, because it takes time, distance and volume to build a tidal wave
Given the turn of events over these past few weeks I don’t put it outside the realm of possibility
(still no answer on why an event off the coast of Japan doesn’t generate a tidal wave here but … maybe some day)
@Ten,
I assume it’s related to the reason that your flashlight can illuminate the opposite wall but not the moon. Energy dissipates as the square of the distance.
I don’t think political energy obeys the inverse square law, though.
Ah! The Moon. Though its light is wide and bright, it reflects in a single drop of dew …
Not so! The Cascadia subduction zone is 70-100 miles offshore, and when it goes, it’s expected to be a disaster for the West Coast: A tsunami that never ends? Study highlights a looming West Coast risk.
And as for going the other way – A tsunami makes its way across the Pacific, with waves hitting the U.S. West Coast-russia-japan, although as Joel observes the distance meant they were “only” 3.6′ high at Crescent City, CA.
I have lived along the subduction zone all of my life, have studied it since witnessing Mt St Helens erupt and that is indeed the best we’ve seen: a three and a half foot wave. I can’t count the times I’ve gone down to the beach to watch the tidal wave and all it was was a good surfin’ wave
There’s a lot about it we still don’t know and I’m not inclined to put much confidence in the media. They’re all about the hysteria ~ ((( The Mega-quake ))) ~ and that’s pretty much the end of their interest. And where mine begins
I was trying to make an analogy. Dr Joel got it … it takes time, and volume
How are you going to impeach trump?
– Initiation and Investigation: The House of Representatives, typically through the Judiciary Committee, investigates allegations of misconduct. Also, Impeachment is a formal charge, not removal. The House impeaches; the Senate removes.
– What constitutes misconduct? Grounds for misconduct: Treason, bribery, or high crimes and misdemeanors.
Ok, Eric, What can we charge Trump with presently? I do not mean his ignorance or stupid remarks.
FYI google search: The rate at which a wave loses its energy is inversely related to its wavelength. Since a tsunami has a very large wavelength, it will lose little energy as it propagates. Hence in very deep water, a tsunami will travel at high speeds and travel great transoceanic distances with limited energy loss.
As for Trump, if the Democrats take control of the House, they should impeach Trump as many times as possible. If nothing else but the embarrassment of being the most impeached president in US history (which he already is but two will not be as notable as 22 in the history books). That will surely get under his skin.
Mark:
Don’t hold your breath on this. I wish they would show some force of character, determination, nerve, or courage. Some moxy would be welcome amongst our politicians. It has been time to push back on trump many times in the past.
@Mark,
Good catch.
“Tsunamis act very differently from typical surf swells; they are phenomena which move the entire depth of the ocean (often several kilometres deep) rather than just the surface, so they contain immense energy, propagate at high speeds and can travel great trans-oceanic distances with little overall energy loss. A tsunami can cause damage thousands of kilometres from its origin, so there may be several hours between its creation and its impact on a coast, arriving long after the seismic wave generated by the originating event arrives. Although the total or overall loss of energy is small, the total energy is spread over a larger and larger circumference as the wave travels. The energy per linear meter in the wave is proportional to the inverse of the distance from the source. (In other words, it decreases linearly with distance.) This is the two-dimensional equivalent of the inverse square law, which is followed by waves which propagate in three dimensions (in a sphere instead of a circle).
“A single tsunami event may involve a series of waves of varying heights; the set of waves is called a train. In open water, tsunamis have extremely long periods (the time for the next wave top to pass a point after the previous one), from minutes to hours, and long wavelengths of up to several hundred kilometres. This is very different from typical wind-generated swells on the ocean, which might have a period of about 10 seconds and a wavelength of 150 metres.
“The actual height of a tsunami wave in open water is often less than one metre. This is often practically unnoticeable to people on ships. The energy of a tsunami passes through the entire water column to the sea bed, unlike surface waves, which typically reach only down to a depth of 10 m or so.
“The wave travels across open ocean at an average speed of 500 mph. As the wave approaches land, the sea shallows and the wave no longer travels as quickly, so it begins to ‘pile-up’; the wave-front becomes steeper and taller, and there is less distance between crests. While a person at the surface of deep water would probably not even notice the tsunami, the wave can increase to a height of sixstories or more as it approaches the coastline and compresses. The steepening process is analogous to the cracking of a tapered whip. As a wave goes down the whip from handle to tip, the same energy is deposited in less and less material, which then moves more violently as it receives this energy.
“A wave becomes a ‘shallow-water wave’ when the ratio between the water depth and its wavelength gets very small, and since a tsunami has an extremely large wavelength (hundreds of kilometres), tsunamis act as a shallow-water wave even in deep oceanic water. Shallow-water waves move at a speed that is equal to the square root of the product of the acceleration of gravity (9.8 m/s2) and the water depth.
“For example, in the Pacific Ocean, where the typical water depth is about 4000 m, a tsunami travels at about 200 m/s (720 km/h or 450 mi/h) with little energy loss, even over long distances. At a water depth of 40 m, the speed would be 20 m/s (about 72 km/h or 45 mi/h), which is much slower than the speed in the open ocean but the wave would still be difficult to outrun.”
Tsunami.)