A national unity ticket, redux . . .
I want to respond to some of the comments on my last post and sharpen my own thinking by gaming out some ways the campaign might evolve. I assume our goal is to have a Democrat – very probably Biden – beat Trump. The question is how to maximize our odds of achieving this goal.
Bill Kristol argues today that Biden should step down now and allow an open contest for the democratic nomination. This is debatable advice (as he acknowledges). As Seth Masket notes, it seems likely that voters are down on Biden because they are down on the state of the country, and that if they are down on Biden they are down on Democrats generally. This suggests that switching horses will not help, and Masket points out that it has not helped in the past (Truman and Johnson were unpopular and stepped aside, and their replacements lost). So let’s assume Biden and Harris stay in the race for now, which seems highly likely as well as prudent. What then?
It is possible that Biden will effectively address concerns about his candidacy in the next few months, or that Trump will somehow lose support by the time the democratic convention rolls around, and that Biden/Harris looks like a reasonably good bet for the fall. In this case it seems clear that we should stick with our incumbents.
To make this more likely, we should try to focus on Biden’s accomplishments, and criticize the abysmal press coverage of the special prosecutor’s report (e.g. here, here), and of Biden’s mental state (here). The evidence to me seems pretty strong that he is currently fine; being forgetful, having a soft voice, and being gaffe-prone are nowhere close to being disqualifying, especially given the alternative.
But what if Biden has not dispelled doubts about his competence and capacity to serve effectively for four more years? In this case there are three options:
Option 1: Circle the wagons. Continue to make the case for Biden/Harris, try to persuade voters that Biden is up to the job, that Harris would be a worthy replacement, that Trump is a danger, that Biden has done a good job so far as President (which happens to be true), cross our fingers and hope for a Trump conviction, etc.
Option 2: Nominate Michelle Obama and Adam Kinzinger. This national unity ticket suggested by Phillips O’Brien would be difficult to pull off, in part because Biden would need to be persuaded to step aside, which he clearly is reluctant to do. And if Biden did step aside this ticket would certainly be a crapshoot. How the public would react is very unclear. Michelle Obama might not be all that popular as a candidate for President; remember Clinton had high favorability ratings after her stint as Secretary of State. It’s easy to like someone who is not running for office. We do not know if any unity ticket – with a Republican VP – would be able to attract many cross-pressured Republicans and keep potential Green/Kennedy/West voters in the Democratic fold. In addition, neither of these potential candidates have been properly vetted. We do not know how good a campaigner Obama would be, or what oppo research would turn up about either of them.
Option 3: Keep Biden on the ticket, but replace Harris with a Republican (I suggested Romney). This avoids the need to persuade Biden to step aside. It would probably make it easier for cross-pressured Republicans to support Biden. Romney is old enough that he would likely not gain an advantage he could use in a future election running as a Republican (as Kinzinger would). On the other hand, some democratic voters would be turned off by Romney, or worried that Romney might become president. Some democratic voters might be offended if Harris is dropped from the ticket, although perhaps she could be persuaded to endorse a unity ticket, either for the good of the country or for careerist reasons (replacing Harris with Romney, rather than another Democrat, would not signal a lack of confidence). Biden/Romney would probably be more effective at staving off a centrist No Labels challenge than Obama/Kinzinger, but might be less effective at managing a challenge from the left.
If Biden/Harris are lagging this summer, the reason they are struggling could well influence whether a national unity ticket makes sense. Phillips O’Brien is a war strategy expert and deeply worried about the threat Trump poses to NATO and Ukraine. I share his concerns, but it is not clear that the public shares a sense of external threat that could make a national unity ticket appealing. I suspect most people are worried about problems closer to home. A unity ticket could help if people feel that Trump is an existential domestic threat, but how many people who believe that are really up for grabs?
Given where we are today, the right approach is for Biden to make his pitch to the American people. Maybe this will work. If it doesn’t, there will be hard and uncertain choices to make this summer. A unity ticket may make sense, but it is far from a panacea.
It has been suggested that Biden would not have sought reelection if it weren’t the case that Trump was going to. That ought not to be held against Biden. Trump re-dux will be an utter disaster. Insisting on a third-party alternative will likely bring that about. Shame on you for insisting that this is a viable alternative. I guess I’ll catch up with you folks on the other side.
Unless the media stops playing favorites and gives as much time to Trump’s failings as they do to Biden’s perceived issues, Democrats will poll badly and everyone with think Biden is senile and Trump is better at everything.
Even Biden probably wishes he were 20 or 30 years younger. But Trump is promising concentration camps and deportations of millions, including the DACA recipients who have been here since they could walk.
This should not be a toss-up choice.
It is not as if we have not had previous presidents who had to fake it at the end of their terms. And President Biden is not even close to that. Ask Netanyahu.
Best choices are Biden retiring right now and letting President Harris lead the ticket or option 1. Option 2 is ‘he’s pretty unfit, but let’s leave him as President while we run a highly inexperienced candidate’. Considerably better to give President Harris 6 months in office and then jump into the campaign without having to explain anything about why Biden is still President or running an inexperienced candidate. Nothing stops MO from being a top surrogate in a Harris campaign. Three is really odd: let’s have a Republican VP for a really frail Democratic President, besides which Harris has been loyal and this is kind of bigger dis than even option 2….like Harris is the problem in a Biden/Harris ticket? Really? Democrats are not reduced to anything that daft, certainly. First option is risky but might work: ‘he’s okay and the country is in good shape’.
First, he is not frail. Second, he just got done leading the country through a pandemic in spite of trump and Republicans.
It is ok to be a little rattled by the calamity of the pandemic and the resistance of people not wanting to take precautionary measures. It is ok to misstep after a few years on calamity.
Third, he has a lunatic on his hands who is working against everything accomplished and turning a legislature against his policies. It should be pointed out that people such as Cruz, Hawley, etc. were instrumental on January 6, It show also be pointed out they have been promoting an open border propaganda globally so that people will come to the US borders.
You could not muster the capability to do what he accomplished..
but it is far from a panacea.
far indeed.
maybe if we just played it straight and run on his record. Democrats are too in love with gimmicks. I am sick of the politics of irrelevant issues. I don’t agree with Biden on some important things, but he is the only Presidential quality candidate in sight in either party.
if we want to win we need to hit the streets and talk to people. to not at. talk about what is important. listen to their ideas… and ask them “how” do we get there.
i’d rather have a sick old man giving me good advice than a smart young shyster selling me a bill of goods,
that you’d even think of letting Romney near the Presidency gives me creeps.
You’re falling into the repubs’ trap, letting them write the narrative
I don’t want to think that this is about her skin color, or gender …
Paul Krugman weighs in.
Why I Am Now Deeply Worried for America
NY Times – PK – yesterday
Dobbs
a little hard for me to tell what of this is krugman and what is you. my own punctuation has suffered lately, but ihave the Biden disease. meanwhile AB in general seems to adopted a punctuation scheme that obscures who is saying what.
but here is what matters: all of us, it seems, have swallowed the bait, making Biden’s age the issue instead of what we actually need to do to preserve our country’s freedom and security, not to mention prosperity. it seems to me that Biden ks way ahead on points, and i am willing to bide his age and ignore the propagnda of those who mean us harm. of course we need to debunk that propaganda, but when we start proposing remedies to the biden “age problem” we have gone off the rails and played into the enemy’s hand.
sorry to see Krugman falling for the “gerontocracy” crap [the enemies have been singing this song for years beginning more or less with the “generaltional theft” college tour by Druckenmiller et al in 2013] , but years ago he fell for the “social security crisis” crap, and even though Dean Baker was able to partially correct him, he has not yet managed to understand how SS works. maybe we need to rely less on experts and learn to do our own thinking. really think, that is, not just hold fast to whatever is on the top of our heads.
I am careful to post what Krugman writes, separate from whatever I might add to it.
The above is all Krugman.
I can’t tell what you mean by ‘gerontocracy crap’. It seems to me that’s precisely what he is NOT doing, other than to note that ‘memory problems’ are typical of old age.
As I have said many, many times, Trump is a master of ‘projecting’, inferring that others have worse problems than he does. Much of his campaign is baed on projection.
Dobbs
Krugman said “Again, I wish this election weren’t a contest between two elderly men and worry in general about American gerontocracy. “
sounds to me like falling for the gerontocracy crap.
i was not accusing you of mis quoting Krugman, I was saying that without old-fashioned quotation marks it’s hart to tell who is saying what.
Trump did not invent the gerontocracy crap. That’s been with us for a few years now. I mentioned Druckenmiller in 2013, and i don’t think he invented it either.
Thinking About Biden’s Memory and Age in the Wrong Way.
NY Times – Charan Ranganath – Feb 12
Dr. Ranganath is a professor of psychology and neuroscience and the director of the Dynamic Memory Lab at the University of California, Davis.
Daniel:
The stress factor plays a role in this also.
”Why We Remember (by Charan Ranganath) offers a radically new and engaging explanation of how and why we remember. More than just a record of our past, Dr. Ranganath shows us that memories are deeply involved in the present, and a path toward an anticipated future. It is a tour de force of both individual and collective importance.” – Amazon
(Or using ‘block quotes’…)
(The above came from Amazon.)
Dobbs
the Doctor is right. what i been saying since the issue came up. I am not a doctor, but I did have some exposure to the science when I was young and had a better memory. Not to mention now being old myself and having learned the difference over time between what matters and what doesn’t.
oh, dear
the doctor is not entirely right: he said, “this should b informed by science not politics”
unfortunately politics is the way we make decisions about the kind of society we want to live in. science as well as religion are part of what informs our opinions, but neither is a last word proof of truth or untruth.
we are lucky to have “politics.” when the magarats finally win, we won’t have politics. just do what the boss says or else.
Eric:
This is not about a frail man who has issues. It is about the opposition attempting to make him out to be such. Where is the promoting of what he has done in spite of the resistance he received in Congress and from a political court? WE should spend little time on replacing him and more time on his accomplishments over 3 years.
Do you read New Deal democrat? It appears we sidestepped a recession. How did that happen??? Not because of Republicans or an orange-face lunatic. And that is just a part of “his,” his accomplishments. He did not just stumble on this. He LED the Effort.
i see where Joe Manchin is picking up on your national unity idea, planning on Romney as his running mate…
@rjs,
Manchin announced he is not running, with or without Romney.
A lot of Dem influencers on MSNBC Morning Joe earlier today were asked who they’d pick to replace Joe Biden on the ballot. Those who didn’t pick Gavin Newsom seemed to favor Josh Shapiro.
Go figure!
Inside Biden’s obsession with “Morning Joe” (axios.com)
February 14
err, February 2