“Are you better off than you were four years ago?”
Bonddad Blog
– by New Deal democrat
No economic news today, so let me take a look at the supposed killer recent GOP meme that they claim is completely unanswerable:
“Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
This is based primarily on consumer sentiment reading as well as polling that has consistently shown that most people think that the economy is poor, even though they rate their own situation as doing well. Dan Guild has a model comparing consumer sentiment with Presidential approval ratings. He concludes that Biden will lose re-election unless consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan does not improve to the index level of 82.
As I’ve pointed out in the past, Presidential approval correlates quite well with the price of gas. Here’s the historical record updated through last month:
Except for those periods late in recessions and shortly thereafter, when the price of gas has typically declined sharply but the unemployment rate is very high, generally speaking, the lower the cost of gas, the higher the consumer sentiment. Interestingly, except for the early part of the 1990s, when gas prices were ridiculously low, the correlation holds better nominally than adjusted for income.
But perceptions aside, are most people in fact worse off than 4 years ago? Here are two ways of looking at that.
First, as I noted several months ago, Motio Research has produced very good monthly estimates of median household income, that track very well with the (unfortunately) annual measure, which is only reported in September of the next year (thus, for example, the most recent official report even now is for the year 2022). Here’s their update through February:
Note that they recommend (in the small print at the bottom) ignoring the results from March through October 2020, when response rates were very skewed. Leaving those out, only three months during Trump’s term were better than the current reading, and two of those, at 112.7, were equaled by January’s reading. Only February 2020 scored higher, at 112.9.
A second way of measuring is to compare real average and aggregate wages. Below I show average hourly wages (blue), average weekly wages (red), and aggregate payrolls divided by population (black), all deflated by the CPI, and normed to 100 as of February 2020:
Most of the surge in average hourly and weekly earnings in 2020 and early 2021 were compositional. That is, most of the workers laid off during the worst of the pandemic were low wage service workers, in places like restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues. When those workers were rehired during 2021 and 2022, the averages went down, with a very big assist from gas prices spiking to $5/gallon. Since then, both measures have exceeded their levels from just before the pandemic.
Aggregate payrolls, even divided by population, and so including everyone who is not working, and not even in the labor force, hit their pre-pandemic level late in 2021 and haven’t looked back. They are *not* affected by compositional issues. And they are currently 2.9% higher, even on this per capita basis, than they were just before the pandemic.
So, the truthful answer for most people to “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” is by any reasonable measure, “Yes.”
The Bonddad Blog: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” New Deal democrat
Led by Youth, U.S. Sinks in World Happiness Report
NY Times – just in
For the first time since the report was issued in 2012, the U.S. was not ranked among the 20 happiest countries. The drop was driven by people under 30.
Yes
The unfortunate sleight of hand in the CPI argument is that the measure doesn’t include so-called “volatile” categories, such as rent, fuel, and food; all of the things that average American voters care the most about about. Simply put, wages have not kept up with the rising cost of necessities that voters face in their day-to-day lives.
Sidney:
I will grant you the numbers represent a point in time. That being the last 4 years. Also, when NDd reports on wages he does not include management in his calculations which may differ than what is shown here.
@Sidney,
The CPI includes rent, fuel and food, all things that average American voters care most about:
“Expenditure items are classified in the CPI into more than 200 categories, arranged into 8 major groups. This item structure is unique to the CPI and the categories themselves do not correspond to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), other price indexes, or other statistics.
Eight major groups and examples of categories in each follow:
Additionally, for analytical purposes, the CPI is also divided into food, energy, and all items less food and energy. The CPI for all items less food and energy gets considerable attention as a measure of underlying core inflation, which is not subject to the volatile movements of food and energy prices. A third structure separates the CPI into commodities and services, with commodities further divided into durables and nondurables. All three structures are comprehensive, with the subcomponents in each structure aggregating to the all items index.
https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/concepts.htm#:~:text=Specifically%2C%20the%20CPI%20measures%20the,items%20to%20automobiles%20to%20rent.
What a coincidence! I heard the same thing on teevee!
Ten Bears:
NDd follows this exclusively. I would guess it is from his own library or sources.
I was referring to “sidney’s” teevee talking points
ok
Does this question just pertain to an individual’s economic situation or is it a question about life in general? If it’s the latter then this post is inconsequential, and somewhat insulting. Be happy, you’ve earned a 1% raise! If your 23 year old OD’d on fentanyl ( thinking it was Xanax) or your 16 year old daughter can’t get an abortion your thoughts probably aren’t too focused on your 1% wage increase.
Will you better of four years from now?
No Labels, No Candidate: Rejections Pile Up as Time Runs Short
NY Times – yesterday
The group’s quest to find a candidate to take on President Biden and Donald Trump has members frustrated.
(Could be their best option may be to talk with Oprah.)
After this, there is much goofy talk about how if they can just get the Electoral College to NOT have a majority, necessary to choose either Biden or Trump, that the election will be decided by the House of Representatives, which could be persuaded to pick the NoLabels candidate. Sure it would…
They’d better be talking with Oprah.
(No word yet from Jon Huntsman?)
Jon Huntsman’s daughters sing about their dad!
For the record, this is how a ‘contingent election’ in the House works.
Continget election of the president
Congressional Research Service – Oct 6, 2020
In a contingent election, the House would choose among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state, regardless of population, casts a single vote for President in a contingent election. Representatives of states with two or more Representatives would therefore need to conduct an internal poll within their state delegation to decide which candidate would receive the state’s single vote. A majority of state votes, 26 or more, is required to elect, and the House must vote “immediately” and “by ballot.” …
It would seem that if the NoLabels candidate got no electoral votes, which would probably be the case, and the EV was simply a tie, then the NoLabels candidate would not be eligible for a contingent vote, and Trump will be selected, since the GOP controls a majority of House delegations.
But, even if it isn’t a tie, in a contingent election the GOP will have a majority of the 50 votes to be cast. Unless the control of the House flips to the Dems in the 2024 election. BTW, Washington DC does not get a vote in a contingent election.
The No Labels Contingent Election Plan Explained
(To the Extent That is Possible)
Apparently the No Labels contingent election strategy includes a provision for directing their electors to vote ‘faithlessly’, which is permitted in 17 states. That’s when they vote for someone other than the ‘No Labels’ candidate. Who that is to be is not specified. Trump maybe?
@Fred,
If the No Labels POTUS candidate wins in a state, it sends that slate of electors. If they vote for Trump, it will count as Trump electoral votes. In which states do you imagine that the No Labels candidate will defeat both Biden and Trump?
Which state? Perhaps NH. The idea is to get an electoral vote tie, then the House gets to choose. If the No Labels candidate is among the top three EV vote getters, they can be chosen by the House. That seems unlikely, but they could be. But, the No Labels folks have said they would allow their electors to choose anyone among the top 3. This part of the plan is iffy. (Maybe if they pick a candidate from NH?)
However, it clearly is a way for Bidden to lose popular votes in states he won in 2020, and get an EV majority for Trump. It seems they will be ok with that. This part is less iffy.
@Fred,
LOL! “No Labels” has to win, not just place or show. They don’t even have a candidate yet, and from what I’ve seen they’re looking at Republicans. Why do you think a Republican running on the NL ticket would draw more voters from Biden than from Trump?
Why? I suppose the same reasons Hillary lost Dem votes in 2016.
As days goes by, Trump becomes worser & worser as a candidate for re-election. But he’ll always get the ‘Bad Boy’ vote, which is considerable.
@Fred,
“I suppose the same reasons Hillary lost Dem votes in 2016.”
So you think Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are running on the No Labels ticket in 2024?
I don’t know if it matters who runs on the No Labels ticket.
I do seem to remember growing up in NY state that the Conservative party often would also run the GOP candidates & the Liberal party would usually also run the Dem candidates.
@Fred,
So regardless of whether NL runs a Republican (which they seem keen to do) or a Democrat, you believe that they will draw most of their votes from Biden?
What seems obvious (to me) is that they will draw their votes from moderates of either party (and independents) who would otherwise vote for Biden. Probably not from Trump. If worse comes to worse, they will actually win some electoral votes.
@Fred,
So a “moderate” in your lexicon is someone who would prefer to let right-wing extremist Trump win than vote for Biden. This appears to be a new and unfamiliar use of the word “moderate.”
Your prophecy is noted.
@Fred,
“To deal with that, one would have to move to (let’s say) Italy.”
Italy has a parliamentary system, like most European countries (and Israel). In a parliamentary system, many political parties can be viable. The US has a first-past-the-post winner take all system. In our system, more than two parties is unstable. To change from that to a parliamentary system would require overhauling the Constitution.
From out on the web…
Italy has its 68th government in 76 years.
Italy has had more than twice the number of governments than either the United Kingdom or Germany since WWII.
As I think you know, the US will not be rewriting the Constitution anytime soon. Or making any useful amendments either.
@Fred,
Israel is on its 37th government since its founding. Parliamentary systems have their own liabilities, but they can easily sustain more than two parties.
Yes, there isn’t the slightest chance that the US will get a parliamentary system. But I wasn’t the one who brought up Italy.
Joel, I for one would appreciate you focusing your efforts on getting Joe Biden re-elected, and not on taking me to task for mine, such as they are.
@Dobbs,
LOL! I, for one, would appreciate it if you kept your unsolicited advice to yourself.
You are the one who has posted endlessly about NoLabels. You have nothing to teach me about third parties, the American election system or Joe Biden.
I have nothing to teach you period.
You are already convinced that Biden is not progressive enough to warrant relection.
@Fred,
“You are already convinced that Biden is not progressive enough to warrant relection.”
LOL! You certainly have nothing to teach me about me. You know nothing about me.
Here, let me teach *you* something. I voted for Biden in 2020. I will vote for Biden again in 2024. The only time I have ever voted for anyone other than a Democrat in a presidential election was in 1980, when I voted for Anderson. That was a mistake–I will never vote 3rd party again.
So how about you don’t bother telling me what I’m convinced about, m’kay? You only make yourself look foolish.
Joel:
While the last time was important due to the folly of voting for anything but trump or Clinton, this time we have to literally eliminate him and the stain of his politics.
I abhor ‘third party’ schemes to make things worse than they are.
The only way presidential politics works half-way ok in this country is to stay within the two parties, as much as you doubt that this works fairly or well. I have long thought that this one-way-or-the-other approach to ‘democracy’ is reprehensible.
Does adopting a ‘popular vote initiative’ to get states to aallot their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote stand a chance. I seem to be the only poster on this board who is interest in this approach. It doesn’t address the one-way-or-the-other problem. To deal with that, one would have to move to (let’s say) Italy.
Geo Washington suggested that political parties were bad for America.
I guess he was right about that.
America Is Now the Divided Republic the Framers Feared
The Atlantic – Jan 2, 2020
‘John Adams (also) worried that “a division of the republic into two great parties … is to be dreaded as the great political evil.” And that’s exactly what has come to pass.’
At this point, I do not trust ‘No Labels’ to be acting in the best interests of the country.
I would say that all moderates who fear for the future of this country had better be planning to vote for Joe Biden. That includes supposed moderates Mike Pence, Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney and millions of others.
‘No Labels’, it seems to me, is trying to restore legitimacy to the GOP by persuading moderates of all sorts to support moderate candidates, in the hopes of eviscerating the MAGA faction. Fine. But moderate Dems, even those who are now unregistered, if not those who have ties to the GOP, ought to be voting for Biden/Harris, and to install a Dem Congress.
To be clear, ‘those independent/not-pary-affiliated’ folks who have ties to the GOP, ought to be voting for Biden/Harris, and to install a Dem Congress.
It means much that a long list of former Trump cabinet secretaries & officials do not want him to back in office. Pay attention to them. They have learned their lesson.
Democrats Prepare Aggressive Counter to Third-Party Threats
NY Times – March 20
An army of lawyers aims to challenge the steadily advancing ballot-access efforts of independent candidates, who Democrats fear could peel votes away in swing states.
… The effort comes as challengers — including … groups like No Labels as well as the G*r*e*e*n Party — have ramped up their push to qualify for states’ ballots ahead of critical deadlines in the spring and summer. …
Joel & I have similar voting records it seems. My first presidential vote was for Hubert Humphrey on the Liberal ticket in New York. I also voted for John Anderson over Ronald Reagan. I will never again vote for a 3rd party candidate. That’s a scam.