– by New Deal democrat The long leading indicators: on the cusp of turning negative? A “long leading indicator” is an economic metric that reliably turns a year or more before the onset of a recession. Geoffrey Moore, who for decades published the Index of Leading Indicators, and in 1993 wrote Leading Economic Indicators: New […]
by New Deal deomocrat JOLTS, Labor Market Conditions index consistent with late 2017 recession I continue to be unimpressed with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), as showing post-mid cycle deceleration for over a year. I have found what I hope is a better way to present my argument, so that you […]
New Deal Democrat writing from The Bonddad Blog On Monday I gave what I think is a reasonable roadmap to the next recession. I want to follow up on this a little. The post from nearly 10 years ago was entitled, Are Hard Times Near? The great decline in interest rates is ending.” The theory […]
by New Deal democrat Why hasn’t increased household formation led to increased housing construction? Tim Taylor has an interesting article about “What was different about housing this time?” Specifically, why has housing in both building terms and as a share of GDP risen so slowly since 2009. To cut to the chase, he writes that […]
by New Deal democrat Aside from a shortage in starter housing for Millennials,there is NO inflation Yesterday’s CPI report seems to be read as potentially justifying an interest rate increase in June. For example, here’s Professor Tim Duy, on Fed hawks: Inflation rose on the back of higher gas prices. Headline CPI gained 0.4 percent, […]
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has just pointed to The unfairness of housing purchases through time. New Deal democrat and Barkley Rosser (at Econospeak) have pointed to problems with rental prices. NDd continues with this post, also pointing to Bill McBride at Calculated Risk… by New Deal democrat Rents are going through the roof! Rent […]
by New Deal democrat Consumer Expenditures Survey: incomes rose sharply from June 2014-June 2015 A major piece of data came out last week that has been totally unreported in the media and econoblogosphere: the Consumer Expenditures Survey (CES) for June 2014- June 2015. This is the first CES report to include the period of rapidly […]
by New Deal democrat The best measure of labor market recoveries: March 2016 update In my opinion the best measure of how average Americans are doing in an economic expansion isn’t jobs, and it isn’t wages per hour. Rather, it is real aggregate wage growth. This is calculated as follows: average wages per hour for […]
by New Deal democrat (Bondadd blog) One long term indicator changes to Yellow One long leading indicator has turned from green (positive) to yellow (caution): mortgage rates. Since middle class wages peaked in the 1970s, the ability to refinance debt at lower interest rates has been an important coping mechanism. Particularly since the 1980s, […]
– by New Deal democrat Forecasting the 2016 election economy, first forecast: the long leading indicators Last week I showed that, going back 160 years, roughly 3/4 of all US Presidential election results correlated positively with whether or not at the time of the election campaign, the US was in a recession […]