Mixed Messages on employment situation
Some other insights on the data in addition to Angry Bear Spencer England:
Mixed Message on the Labor Front
BLS released its Employment Situation Summary for July. The payroll survey showed an increase in employment of $163 thousand but that unemployment rate rose to 8.3%. So what was the deal from the household survey? Actually the labor force participation rate fell from 63.8% to 63.7% so the small rise in the unemployment rate masks the fact that the employment to population rate fell from 58.6% to 58.4%. The household survey indicates that employment dropped by 195 thousand last month. So I’m sure the political hacks will have lots to debate on this news. But one thing is crystal clear – we are still far below full employment. This Administration and the Federal Reserve need to do a lot more in terms of stimulus. Of course the Republicans are proposing even more fiscal austerity. Go figure!
Truly this is not good news. If U# goes up, Particpation Rate increases because people started looking for work again. What you are saying is U3 went up at the same time Participation Rate dropped (more people quit looking). August 3, 2012 10:20 PM
At Bonndad, New Deal Democrat points to the data suggesting new unemployment claims as a leading indicator is much diminished.
The reason that “jobs were added” but unemployment still went up is because BLS cooked the numbers.
The economy actually lost 1.6M jobs in June and July but BLS “expected to lose 1.6M + 163,000 so they called that a gain of 163,000 jobs.
anon @ 12:38 –
where did you get “lost 1.6M jobs in June and July”
dont make shit up…we gained 349,000 jobs in june, lost 1,204,000 in july…
i agree that the seasonal adjustments skewed this data, & that some of july’s job gain will be reversed in september when school districts go back to work…i ill have my take (which dan has already read) posted on MW666 tonight
Up untill 6 months one could draw unemployment until Obama signed a bill stopping the last tier and shotning the other 3. That being said it cut ones time for uneployment checks from around 24 months to 8 to get people off the list and lower the unemployment rate. In a meeting at the unemployment office in Dalton, Ga. around 3 months ago the speaker said we want this over by November!
the expiration of the federal unemployment rations was lost in the payroll tax cut deal, when all the good liberals were looking the other way…any state whose U3 rate goes down by some federal fudge factor over 3 years gets cut off…thus, californians lose out even though their U3 rate is over 11%
The current employment situation is still very weak. Solutions are needed to change it around
Go to: Dailyjobcuts com
You wrote – “The reason that “jobs were added” but unemployment still went up is because BLS cooked the numbers.” So apparently, you are unaware that the payroll job count and the jobless rate are mathematically unrelated. The jobless rate is based on household reports of employment, and households reported a drop in jobs, utterly consistent with a rise in the jobless rate.
If you are unaware of these facts, you are unqualified to express opinions on the jobs data. If you are aware, but wrote what you wrote anyway, you are dishonest, and nobody should read what you write, regardless of your qualifications.