Scenes from the September jobs report: a look at leading indicators – by New Deal democrat Today is a holiday, so no new economic news. So let’s take a look at some of the leading indicators I was tracking last week for the employment report, and some leading indicators for the economy within that report […]
If you get a chance, wander over to Seeking Alpha and read New Deal democrat’s very thorough take on the economy. You can set up a fee, limited account there. AB Weekly Indicators for October 2 – 6 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While interest […]
Weekly Indicators for September 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Interest rates continued to head higher, with mortgage rates briefly going over 7.5%. With the long leading indicators having worsened, With the decline in commodity (including gas) prices over, I am looking for […]
Consumer spending holds up well in August, despite ending of disinflation – by New Deal democrat As I have repeated for the past several months, in the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s because, despite the downturn in manufacturing production and many parts […]
Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis, but do not suggest near term recession – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With a one week lag, continuing claims rose 42,000 to 1.670 million: Although this appears very […]
New 20+ year record high mortgage rates begin to impact home sales; bifurcation in new vs. existing home prices continues – by New Deal democrat In addition to updated reports on new home sales and prices, and existing home prices this morning, there’s some very important news on mortgage rates. Namely, at 7.51%, mortgage rates […]
Weekly Indicators for September 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the existing home market completely seized up, the background financial condition have trended even worse. Meanwhile the shorter term indicators may be getting reading […]
With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues – by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 million annualized in August, the lowest level of the entire past 10+ years except for last […]
Weekly Indicators for September 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The only significant change in any metric is that manufacturing, as measured by the average of the new orders sub-indexes of the regional Feds’ monthly reports is on the very cusp of […]
Real retail sales continue to be weak; continue to forecast weakening jobs reports – by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite metrics because it tells us so much about the consumer and, indirectly, the labor market and the total economy. Nominally, retail sales rose 0.6% in August. So did […]