Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

As the economy slows, so has producer price growth

As the economy slows, so has producer price growth  – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for September will be released tomorrow. This morning the upstream producer prices were released. Total PPI rose by 0.4%, after two straight months of decline; but excluding those and December 2021, the lowest monthly increase since November 2020. Here are […]

Scenes from the September jobs report

Scenes from the September jobs report by New Deal democrat No important economic news this week until Wednesday. I was going to put up a book review for Indigenous Peoples’ Day, but it got too long and involved, so maybe tomorrow. Instead, here’s a look at some of the more important metrics I was tracking […]

Signs and portents of an employment slowdown and a near-term recession

Signs and portents of an employment slowdown and a near-term recession  – by New Deal democrat I continue to believe that a recession – possibly a deep if relatively brief one – is likely to start early next year. As I’ve mentioned before, this isn’t just an academic exercise; recessions by definition feature jobs and […]

August JOLTS report: the game of reverse musical chairs in the jobs market is ending

August JOLTS report: the game of reverse musical chairs in the jobs market is ending  – by New Deal democrat Since early this year I’ve been making the point that, because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer persons looking for work, leaving a huge number of unfilled job vacancies, particularly in the […]

September manufacturing new orders and August construction spending both turn down

September manufacturing new orders and August construction spending both turn down  – by New Deal democrat As usual, we begin another month and another quarter with important manufacturing and construction data. The ISM manufacturing index has a very long and reliable history. Going back almost 75 years, the new orders index has always fallen below 50 […]

Weekly Indicators for September 19 – 23

Weekly Indicators for September 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators column is up at Seeking Alpha. For the third week in a row, interest rates increased, and gas prices, along with the prices of other commodities, tumbled. While the decline in gas prices is good, the downturn in […]

August existing home sales: confirmation of housing prices peaking

August existing home sales: confirmation that house prices have peaked Existing home sale by themselves are not that important economically, since there is a mere transfer in ownership, rather than a complete build. But they can help verify turning points, and in this case very importantly as to prices. But first, sales declined slightly (-2,000) […]

Weekly Indicators for September 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for September 12 – 16 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Gas prices have continued to decline, with almost the entire Ukraine war spike gone. Meanwhile Tuesday’s core CPI reading sent the bond market into a tizzy, with interest rates going back up to […]

August CPI: sharp gains in housing and new cars offset declines in used cars and gas

August CPI: sharp gains in housing and new cars offset declines in used cars and gas  – by New Deal democrat Following up on yesterday’s post, let’s cut to the chase: Total CPI +0.1% Energy -5.0% Used vehicles -0.1% New vehicles +0.8% Owners’ equivalent rent +0.7% (biggest monthly gain since 1990) YoY inflation declined to […]