The economic tailwind from falling commodity prices has likely ended  – by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll post on the August retail sales report later today.] Two days ago in my PPI and CPI overview, I wrote; “I am most interested in whether the producer price report tells us that the big decline in commodity prices is […]

Initial jobless claims maintain renewed yellow caution flag  – by New Deal democrat Some post-pandemic unresolved seasonality may be affecting the weekly claims figures, as just like last year, they are declining sharply compared with early August. But on a YoY basis, they are not nearly so positive. Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week […]

August consumer inflation confirms “Goldilocks” “soft landing” may well be “transitory”  – by New Deal democrat Let me start by quoting from my post yesterday: “As to consumer prices, I am most interested in the relative weights of decelerating shelter increases (which as I have written many times are well-forecasted by the more current home […]

Dale Coberly Talks Social Security . . . For over ten years I have been telling anyone who would listen . . . about ten people . . . that the great “Looming Unfunded Twenty-Two Trillion Dollar Deficit! . . . stealing our children’s future,” reported in all the high-end news sources by all the […]

Despite 6+ month low in initial claims, yellow caution flag remains  – by New Deal democrat Last week the initial claims numbers justified restarting the yellow caution flag. This week initial jobless claims declined -13,000 to a 6+ month low of 216,000. The 4-week moving average declined -8,500 to 229,250. With a one-week lag, continuing claims […]