Except for fictitious shelter and vehicle repairs, September inflation was moderate – by New Deal democrat With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as anticipated has stopped decelerating. First I’ll look at the headlines, then the problem children. Total inflation (blue in the graph below) rose 0.4% […]
Weekly Indicators for September 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Interest rates continued to head higher, with mortgage rates briefly going over 7.5%. With the long leading indicators having worsened, With the decline in commodity (including gas) prices over, I am looking for […]
Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis, but do not suggest near term recession – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With a one week lag, continuing claims rose 42,000 to 1.670 million: Although this appears very […]
With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues – by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 million annualized in August, the lowest level of the entire past 10+ years except for last […]
The economic tailwind from falling commodity prices has likely ended – by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll post on the August retail sales report later today.] Two days ago in my PPI and CPI overview, I wrote; “I am most interested in whether the producer price report tells us that the big decline in commodity prices is […]
Initial jobless claims maintain renewed yellow caution flag – by New Deal democrat Some post-pandemic unresolved seasonality may be affecting the weekly claims figures, as just like last year, they are declining sharply compared with early August. But on a YoY basis, they are not nearly so positive. Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week […]
August consumer inflation confirms “Goldilocks” “soft landing” may well be “transitory” – by New Deal democrat Let me start by quoting from my post yesterday: “As to consumer prices, I am most interested in the relative weights of decelerating shelter increases (which as I have written many times are well-forecasted by the more current home […]
Dale Coberly Talks Social Security . . . For over ten years I have been telling anyone who would listen . . . about ten people . . . that the great “Looming Unfunded Twenty-Two Trillion Dollar Deficit! . . . stealing our children’s future,” reported in all the high-end news sources by all the […]
Despite 6+ month low in initial claims, yellow caution flag remains – by New Deal democrat Last week the initial claims numbers justified restarting the yellow caution flag. This week initial jobless claims declined -13,000 to a 6+ month low of 216,000. The 4-week moving average declined -8,500 to 229,250. With a one-week lag, continuing claims […]