Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The virus remains in control in the unvaccinated States

Trend in new jobless claims flattens: the virus remains in control in the unvaccinated States New jobless claims are the most important weekly economic datapoint with regard to the effects of vaccination progress. Four weeks ago I wrote, “I think we are going to see two tracks going forward from here, as near-normalcy does return to […]

New jobless claims continue strong decline, consistent with ongoing recovery, while continuing claims continue mixed

New jobless claims continue strong decline, consistent with ongoing recovery, while continuing claims continue mixed New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – deaths are at their lowest point in over a year, […]

New jobless claims continue to decline at rate of 100,000 per month, while continued claims stall at elevated level

New jobless claims continue to decline at rate of 100,000 per month, while continued claims stall at elevated level New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – both new infections and deaths are […]

Big decline in new jobless claims continues, while decline in continuing claims has stalled

Big decline in new jobless claims continues, while decline in continuing claims has stalled New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – both new infections and deaths are near their lowest points in […]

New jobless claims continue to improve while continuing claims concerningly stall

New jobless claims continue to improve, while continuing claims concerningly stall New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – both new infections and deaths are near their lowest points in a year.  We […]

More new pandemic lows in jobless claims

More new pandemic lows in jobless claims: April jobs report likely to show over 1,000,000 new jobs added Repeating my recent top-line mantra, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I expect an ongoing […]

Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely

Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely As I have said for the past few weeks, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I have been expecting a […]

Jobless claims: progress pauses, as a new surge in COVID in Michigan and the Northeast causes concern

Jobless claims: progress pauses, as a new surge in COVID in Michigan and the Northeast causes concern New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. As the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, I expect a big increase in renewed consumer and social […]

New jobless claims rise slightly, expect a big payrolls gain tomorrow

New jobless claims rise slightly, expect a big payrolls gain tomorrow New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial […]

Jobless claims make new pandemic lows at last

Jobless claims make new pandemic lows at last New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities […]