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New jobless claims continue to improve while continuing claims concerningly stall

New jobless claims continue to improve, while continuing claims concerningly stall

New jobless claims continue to be the most important weekly economic datapoint, as increasing numbers of vaccinated people and outdoor activities have led to an abatement of the pandemic – both new infections and deaths are near their lowest points in a year. 

We have hit my objective for new claims to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day. My second objective is for them to be below 400,000 by Labor Day. 

New jobless claims declined 34,000 to 473,000. On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined 26,286 to 487,436. The 4 week average of claims also declined by 28,250 to 534,000. All of these were new pandemic lows.
Here is the trend since last August: 

More new pandemic lows in jobless claims

More new pandemic lows in jobless claims: April jobs report likely to show over 1,000,000 new jobs added

Repeating my recent top-line mantra, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I expect an ongoing big increase in renewed consumer and social activities, with a concomitant gain in monthly employment gains like we saw in the March jobs report.Five weeks ago I set a few objective targets: new claims to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day, and below 400,000 by Labor Day. 


This week we continued our major advance towards those targets.
On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 56,554 to 566,479. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 39,000 to 547,000. The 4 week average of claims also declined by 27,750 to 651,000. 

At their worst one year ago, initial claims were in the range of 5 to 7 million per week! Here’s how the trend looks since last last August: 

Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely

Jobless claims break on through – 1M+ jobs report for April looks likely

As I have said for the past few weeks, new jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. With the number of those vaccinated continuing to increase, I have been expecting a big increase in renewed consumer and social activities, with a concomitant gain in monthly employment gains – as we saw in the March jobs report.Four weeks ago I set a few objective targets: new claims to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day, and below 400,000 by Labor Day. 
This week was a major advance towards those targets.


On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 152,833 to 612,919. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 193,000 to 576,000 (with last week’s number being adjusted upward by 25,000). The 4 week average of claims also declined by 42,250 to 683,000. 

Here is the close up since last August (recall that these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in April of last year): 

Jobless claims: progress pauses, as a new surge in COVID in Michigan and the Northeast causes concern

Jobless claims: progress pauses, as a new surge in COVID in Michigan and the Northeast causes concern

New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. As the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, I expect a big increase in renewed consumer and social activities, with a concomitant gain in monthly employment gains – as we saw in the March jobs report last week.Three weeks ago I set a few objective targets: I am looking for new claims to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day, and below 400,000 by Labor Day. This week didn’t help us, although it is more of a pause than a significant increase.


On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 18,172 to 740,787. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 16,000 to 744,000. The 4 week average of claims also rose by 2,000 from last week’s pandemic low of 721,250 to 723,250. 

Here is the close up since last August (recall that these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April):

New jobless claims rise slightly, expect a big payrolls gain tomorrow

New jobless claims rise slightly, expect a big payrolls gain tomorrow

New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities and attendant consumer spending, leading in turn to a strong rebound in monthly employment gains.Three weeks ago I set a few objective targets: I am looking for new claims to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day, and below 400,000 by Labor Day. 
This week initial jobless claims increased from last week’s pandemic lows. On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 63,282 to 714,433. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 61,000 from last week’s downwardly revised 658,000 to 719,000. The 4 week average of claims declined by 10,500 to 719,000, a new pandemic low. 

Jobless claims make new pandemic lows at last

Jobless claims make new pandemic lows at last

New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities and attendant consumer spending, leading in turn to a strong rebound in monthly employment gains. Two weeks ago I set a few objective targets: I am looking for new claims to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day, and below 400,000 by Labor Day. 

This morning was (relatively!) good news, as we finally made new pandemic lows for initial claims. On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims fell by 100,412 to 656,789. Seasonally adjusted claims also declined by 97,000 to 684,000. The 4 week average of claims declined as well by 13,000 to 736,000. Seasonally adjusted claims also declined All of these were new pandemic lows.  

Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves

Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves; expect a 200,000+ number of new jobs in next Employment Report

 – by New Deal democrat

New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion is correct that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities and attendant consumer spending, leading in turn to a strong rebound in monthly employment gains. More specifically, now that further COVID relief has also been passed by Congress, last week I set a few objective targets: I am looking for new claims to be under 500,000 by Memorial Day, and below 400,000 by Labor Day. 

This morning’s data didn’t help. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 424,318 to 746,796. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 45,000 to 770,000, the highest level in 4 weeks. The 4 weeks moving average, however, declined by 16,000 to 746,250.  

Here is the close up since the end of July (these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April): 

New jobless claims continue to decline

New jobless claims continue to decline, just above the pandemic low

New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities and attendant consumer spending, leading in turn to a strong rebound in monthly employment gains considerably greater than the roughly 250,000 we saw in February, is correct.

This week, the *relatively* good news continued. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 47,170 to 709,548. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 42,000 to 712,000, only 1,000 above November’s pandemic low. The 4-week moving average declined by 34,000 to 759,000. 

Initial jobless claims make further progress towards November lows

Initial jobless claims make further progress towards November lows

Last week I “pre-debunked” the idea that a lack of reporting in Texas skewed the big decline in claims, concluding that “being very generous, the ‘real’ seasonally adjusted number of initial claims at worst probably would have been only about 30,000 higher – I.e., 760,000 – but for Texas issues.” 

That observation was validated this week, as last week’s 730,000 number was only revised higher by 6,000 to 736,000. And the *relatively* good news continued.

This week, on a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims increased by 31,519 to 748,078. Seasonally adjusted claims increased by 9,000 to 745,000. The 4 week moving average declined by 17,250 to 790,750. 

Here is the close up since the end of July (these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April): 

Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row

Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row

The story this week is the repeated massive upward revisions to last week’s numbers

This week, on a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 5,702 to 862,351. Seasonally adjusted claims increased by 13,000 to 861,000 (meaning last week’s original number of 793,000 was revised higher by almost 50,000! – the 2nd week in a row for huge upward revisions). The 4 week moving average declined by 3,500 to 833,250. 

Here is the close up since the end of July (these numbers were in the range of 5 to 7 million at their worst in early April):