Initial claims rise, but remain below the caution threshold  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 to 231,000 in the past week. The 4 week moving average increased 7,750 to 220,250. With a one week lag, continued claims rose 32,000 to 1.865 million: I had speculated that the big decline in claims […]

Initial claims: were the recent lows just unresolved seasonality after all?  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 5,000 to a 7 week high of 217,000 this week. The 4 week moving average rose 2,000 to 210,000 from its 9 month low of 208,000 last week. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims […]

Jobless claims continue near expansion lows  – by New Deal democrat Jobless claims continued very low last week, justifying taking down the “yellow caution flag” that had been in place for a number of months. Specifically, weekly new claims rose 10,000 to 210,000 – still a very low historical number. The more important four week […]

Very strong initial jobless claims probably the result of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality  –  by New Deal democrat It continues to be reasonably clear that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in initial jobless claims, which nose-dived last September and rebounded during October. So far the same pattern is evident this year. To wit, initial claims […]

Initial jobless claims remain higher on a YoY basis, but do not suggest near term recession  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 211,000. The 4 week moving average declined -6,250 to 211,000. With a one week lag, continuing claims rose 42,000 to 1.670 million: Although this appears very […]

Initial jobless claims maintain renewed yellow caution flag  – by New Deal democrat Some post-pandemic unresolved seasonality may be affecting the weekly claims figures, as just like last year, they are declining sharply compared with early August. But on a YoY basis, they are not nearly so positive. Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 last week […]

Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change […]

Initial jobless claims: still at distress levels, still not red flag recession warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims dropped -26,000 last week to 239,000, the top of their former range this spring. The more important 4 week moving average rose 1,500 to 257,500, a new 18 month high. With a one week lag, […]

Initial and continuing claims edge closer to signaling recession  – by New Deal democrat There’s a blizzard of data this morning. I’ll report on retail sales and Industrial production later. But let’s start with initial jobless claims, which were unchanged this week at 262,000, the highest level in over 18 months. The 4 week average increased […]

Yellow flag from initial jobless claims turns a little more orangey  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 264,000 last week, while the 4 week average rose 6,000 to 245,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 12,000 to 1.813 million: Note that both measures of initial claims are at […]