– by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that “we’re coming up on the one year anniversary of that change of regime, so it will be interesting to see if the negative YoY comparisons continue, or if they fade away. This week’s numbers are noteworthy in that regard, because they suggest that – maybe – […]

Jobless claims continue to be the most positive metric in the array of economic indicators   – by New Deal democrat The new regime of lower jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -11,000 to 207,000, while the four week moving average rose 500 to 209,750. Both of these remain within a stone’s throw […]

– by New Deal democrat Jobless claims, along with stock market prices and upscale consumer spending (and recently, manufacturing orders) are one of the few important metrics holding up the economy. And the short summary of this morning’s data is: the new regime of very low claims continued. Initial claims did rise 16,000 to a still […]

– by New Deal democrat Later this morning I’ll discuss yesterday’s positive durable goods orders release, and in that context, I’ll also have more to say about the likely reason why industrial production also improved so much. Tomorrow we’ll get personal income and spending, and new home sales, both from December, as well as the […]

 – by New Deal democrat The December JOLTS report that was delayed from Tuesday is scheduled to be released later this morning. I may cover it today, or may delay until tomorrow, since there won’t be a jobs report. In the meantime, let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims which, to reiterate, are a […]

 – by New Deal democrat I’m on the road today, and won’t have time to update anything until tonight. So here is what to look for in initial and continuing jobless claims. Remember that the most important figure for forecasting purposes is the YoY% change. One year ago, initial claims came in at 221,000, the […]

– by New Deal democrat We are in the part of the year when, post-Covid, likely residual seasonality has resulted in a declining trend in new jobless claims.  Not this year. On a week over week basis, initial jobless claims did decline -33,000 from last week’s outlier 264,000 to 231,000, and the four week averaged declined […]

AB: This is an excellent NDd recital on a not so good jobless claim report. Employment is not improving and as NDd states it appears to be remaining the same. The tariff game Tr__p is playing is not helping the economy and is just another burden in cost which we will all pay. This is […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I suggested that there might have been a break in the trend of higher YoY jobless claims, but there was not enough evidence yet. It is fair to say that this week’s report supplied that evidence. Initial claims declilned another -4,000 to 217,000, the lowest weekly number since mid-April. […]

 – by New Deal democrat Probably the brightest spot in the entire economy right now is initial jobless claims. Contrary to the general theme of deceleration which has been the case for several years now, initial claims appear to be breaking trend in the positive direction. Specifically, initial claims declined -7,000 last week to 221,000, their […]