– by New Deal democrat As per usual, retail sales are one of my favorite economic indicators, because in the past they have told us a lot about both where the economy is at present, and because consumption leads employment, so much about where the economy is likely to be in the near term future. […]

 – by New Deal democrat We’ve settled back in to our typical post-employment week lack of new data, so today is a good day to update the leading indicators from the employment report, especially in view of their important contribution to why I went on “recession watch” yesterday. As you probably already know, because I harp […]

Unemployment increases in July. Job growth is slowing and numbers for the two preceding months were lowered to 19,000 in May, down from 144,000 and 14,000 in June, down from 147,000. Were these unusual? According the BLS, they were somewhat larger than experienced in the past, The size of these revisions were “larger than normal,” […]

July jobs report: especially with revisions, an awful report that screams near-recession  – by New Deal democrat Let me cut right to the chase in this first sentence: the only reason this employment report was not recessionary is that it did not have a negative number. Aside from that, it was either  flat to awful […]

July down and last two months revised downward. The July jobs report wasn’t just underwhelming. It may have flipped the story on its head. Payrolls grew by a meager 73,000 jobs, far below the roughly 110,000 anticipated. Adding insult to injury, May and June were revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs — the biggest two-month […]

 – by New Deal democrat In my conclusion last month, I wrote “In the first two months of Q2, total real spending has declined by -0.8%, while services has been basically unchanged. If there is a further decline in June, based on the above discussion that would likely trigger a “recession watch” signal.” To cut to […]

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS survey for June continued to be consistent with a “soft landing” scenario. This is good news, particularly on a relative basis, since the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, have exacerbated the fear that this might transform into a “hard” landing, a/k/a a recession. As a quick […]

 – by New Deal democrat Once again there is no significant economic news on a Monday, so let’s take a look at the important data I am especially interested in later this week. Consumption leads employment, and since consumption is about 70% of the US economy, any downturn in consumption is important, as it directly affects […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. With the continued pause in actual tariff increases, the data has rebounded basically across the board from April and May. Even the long leading indicators have improved somewhat, led by some un-inversions of the yield curve and the improvement in corporate profits as […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I suggested that there might have been a break in the trend of higher YoY jobless claims, but there was not enough evidence yet. It is fair to say that this week’s report supplied that evidence. Initial claims declilned another -4,000 to 217,000, the lowest weekly number since mid-April. […]