– by New Deal democrat I described two months ago as “the month the birds came home to roost.” Last month, pace Edgar Allen Poe, I said the birds were screeching “recession!” This month, Poe’s birds decided to play with us, screeching instead: “Nevermind!” This was a good report with mainly good internals, with one […]
– by New Deal democrat This is the month the birds came home to roost, at least for the year 2025. While the month over month numbers were almost all positive, some strongly so (a repeat of what we saw last January as well, so beware unresolved seasonality), the benchmark revisions were brutal. Which is likely […]
– by New Deal democrat First things first: the jobs data we received this morning, like the official data reported earlier this week, is “stale news.” The period canvassed giving rise to this data was over two months ago. As such, aside from the fuller texture which it provides to us, the most important question is […]
Simple report. Not feeling well enough to deep dive this topic. I tend to agree with Paul Krugman and others (for that matter). Much of this fluctuation (jobs, etc.) is due to Trump’s creation of a nervous economy. There is no stability. The slightest change impacts the economy. The facts keep changing from time to […]
Trump isn’t a jobs creator—the jobs reports are down. So what does Trump do? He fires the Commissioner of Labor Statistics. How many jobs will shooting the messenger create? Meanwhile, his threatened tariffs have stocks headed down. Will he fire Wall Street? A fed governor steps down, making room for a Trump appointment and setting […]
July down and last two months revised downward. The July jobs report wasn’t just underwhelming. It may have flipped the story on its head. Payrolls grew by a meager 73,000 jobs, far below the roughly 110,000 anticipated. Adding insult to injury, May and June were revised down by a staggering 258,000 jobs — the biggest two-month […]
Scenes from the October jobs report: soft landing vs. continued slow deceleration – by New Deal democrat First, an editorial note: economic news is light this week, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two. That being said, let’s take a look at the most important trends, as I […]
July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items […]
Dueling May jobs reports: establishment report strong, household report pre-recessionary – by New Deal democrat My focus for this report continued to be whether the leading sectors and other indicators continued to decline, and whether the pace of growth continued to decelerate. The establishment side of the report was strong, with most leading indicators improving. […]
What to watch most for in this Friday’s jobs report – by New Deal democrat After a two week drought, this week a plethora of economic stats get reported. Most importantly for my purposes that includes house prices, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report, and of course on Friday nonfarm payrolls. Speaking of which, 3 […]