– by New Deal democrat Oddly, even though the government shutdown has crippled most reporting, the Census Bureau did update the durable goods report for August today, and it does reveal an essential bifurcation in the state of the economy. First, here are the topline leading indicators: total durable goods orders (blue), core capital goods orders […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past year, in contrast to much other data in the jobs sector, the JOLTS reports have been very much consistent with a “soft landing” jobs scenario. In the August report released this morning, the trend weakened slightly. As a quick refresher, this survey decomposes the employment market into […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and consumption is one of the two big monthly reports on the state of the average American, in addition to the jobs report. In the past several months, I have looked for a rebound from April and May’s “Liberation Day” aftermath of a cutback in spending. In July […]
– by New Deal democrat The QCEW for Q1 of this year will be released at 10 AM Eastern time this morning. It should also finalize the numbers for last year. Why is that important? Because it will also set the preliminary benchmark revisions for the monthly jobs numbers last year and into this year. […]
– by New Deal democrat Consumer price inflation will be reported tomorrow. In the meantime, this morning producer prices for August were reported. Normally I don’t pay too much attention to producer prices – and I won’t this month, either. But let me put that in some context. In the past, when producer prices have outstripped […]
Following up on Joel’s earlier commentary on Jobs. Maybe messing with tariffs is not producing the results Trump and the Repubs had in mind? A revision of numbers on Jobs report. “It is difficult to isolate the exact causes of this slowdown, but it’s safe to say that this administration’s policies (like tariffs) have not […]
A more detailed Jobs Report analysis by New Deal democrat. New Deal democrat was in Phoenix a while back. He let me know and we were able to meet at the Pomo Pizzeria on 1st Street. Great place to meet a friend or take your wife. The crowd is casual in dress. Good pizza too! […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were no big changes this week, but what continues to stick out in the data as far as I am concerned is just how strong consumer spending continues to be: weekly retail spending was up nearly 6% YoY, and restaurant reservations – […]
AB: This is an excellent NDd recital on a not so good jobless claim report. Employment is not improving and as NDd states it appears to be remaining the same. The tariff game Tr__p is playing is not helping the economy and is just another burden in cost which we will all pay. This is […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the “real” purchasing power of average working and middle class Americans. The July jobs report showed that average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory workers rose a little under 0.3% (blue in the graph below). Consumer inflation (red) rose 0.2%, so “real” average hourly earnings rose 0.1%. […]