Updating the Jobs Report
Following up on Joel’s earlier commentary on Jobs. Maybe messing with tariffs is not producing the results Trump and the Repubs had in mind? A revision of numbers on Jobs report.
“It is difficult to isolate the exact causes of this slowdown, but it’s safe to say that this administration’s policies (like tariffs) have not helped.” Arindrajit Dube, professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
The jobs crash
Sorry again to intrude on you today, but I this morning’s jobs report shows that Trump’s economy is experiencing a jobs crash.
When I say jobs crash I mean that employers have essentially stopped hiring. Today’s report from the B.L.S. shows that the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August (relative to the normal monthly gain of 180,000 to 200,000).
The revised figures for June, based on added data, show that 13,000 jobs were lost that month. That’s the first net loss in monthly jobs since the start of the pandemic.
Trump blames Jerome Powell and the Fed for not cutting interest rates sooner but that’s not the reason employers have stopped hiring. They’ve stopped because the risk is too great.
Trump’s arbitrary, capricious, and mercurial decisions about tariffs and everything else that affects the economy have made it impossible for employers to make even modest predictions about the future. So they won’t hire.
Meanwhile, the Fed can’t cut interest rates much without risking more inflation.
Trump promised to reduce prices, but prices continue to rise. Blame Trump’s tariffs. Prices for wholesalers rose at the fastest pace in three years in July, and those wholesale prices are now being passed on to retailers and consumers.
Food prices are rising especially quickly. The prices of vegetables skyrocketed 40 percent in July. A recent Consumer Price Index report found electricity prices rising at double the rate of inflation, increasing 5.5 percent over the past year.
A jobs crash coupled with soaring prices is bad for everyone — including Republicans seeking to be reelected to Congress next year.