– by New Deal democrat The story of this month’s CPI report is summed up in the first few graphs below: the shelter portion of the index continues its slow deceleration, while the non-shelter portion of the index appears to be in a slowly rising trend. This has resulted in headline inflation trending ever so […]

 – by New Deal democrat Despite some very soft employment and production data in the past several weeks, Wall Street has been on something of a tear, making repeated new all-time highs. Over the weekend I saw the following comment, which piqued my interest: It certainly does seem that Wall Street is dismissing the news […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is a strong divergence between the high frequency data, which is very positive, and the monthly data, which has caused me to go on “recession watch.” Needless to say, this is very unusual, suggesting there may be some special factors at work; […]

 – by New Deal democrat Twenty years ago, Prof. Edward Leamer gave an important speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, WY, retreat called “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that speech he discussed the fact that, historically, private residential construction as a share of GDP on average peaked 7 quarters before the onset of recessions, followed […]

Or you can talk about something else. We used to do this in the past and sometimes it was very successful. As a subscriber. I am posting part of a Paul Krugman commentary. It may interest you. You can always use your own topic. as a start of a discussion too. ~~~~~~~ Part of a […]

Simple report. Not feeling well enough to deep dive this topic. I tend to agree with Paul Krugman and others (for that matter). Much of this fluctuation (jobs, etc.) is due to Trump’s creation of a nervous economy. There is no stability. The slightest change impacts the economy. The facts keep changing from time to […]